Member Info for edgar222

Scully

That is madness (subject to there being further news via RNS).

Look at IOG, AAOG, AEX or CERP instead.

mossma

Well said. But this BB has a unique problem. Filter does not work and that is because so many people engage.

"Edgar I know it's waive, that's why I put "wave" in quotes - I was referring to Longside who didn't know how to spell it properly earlier"

Did not know that. Do not pretend to have read every post on BPC!! Too many.

"Edgar if the major had ended negotiations the RNS would have stated this"

Yes and I am intrigued by that absence, as I have said. But maybe they haven't yet and plan to on the 31st ?

Still makes no sense to end exclusivity if you want a deal.

Scully

It is "waive".

Scully: "Edgar can you please clarify exactly what you mean by "major has walked away"? Do you simply mean they've not extended the exclusivity? Do you not accept the BPC coud have rejected a low ball offer?"

Can I repeat I don't know any more than you. I am reading the same RNS as you. The market has concluded the Major has walked away. What I am debating is whether the market is right.

The reason I also have concluded that based on the last RNS is that the RNS itself tells us that the Major has ended the exclusivity. That makes no sense to me if they are still at the table negotiating.

"Edgar no-one but the BoD know if they're in big trouble or not...."

And this is where we differ. Knowing the cash position, licence position and concluding that the current Major has walked away we know they need to change something quickly. That might be a raise, a farmout, a buyout, a loan or something else. But we do know something has to happen. Given their position we can conclude that they are not in a strong negotiating position on any of those issues. That constitutes "trouble" to me. The thing that may mean it is alright in the end is that the Major or another one just has to drill the enormous prospect and will step in. The evidence for that is not strong at the moment, in fact I would suggest it points the other way. That possibility though is why I still hold some.

I accept that if you take the backstop as the date the licence lapses. I cant remember precisely when that is but isn't it around April 2019? Fair enough. But I don't think they mean that. And I don't think they know. And I place no weight on that RNS.

I continue to hold half my original holding but don't try and tell me they aren't in big trouble.

Ok Scully. Lets run with that. I assume you mean completion of financing?

When will that be, do you know? Does the Company know? And if not, how do they know they have enough money to keep the lights on ?

Scully:

"How many times lol, read the RNS - "the Company remains adequately funded to continue developing well financing options through to completion." It's there in black and white. Anyone who says the company doesn't have enough money is misleading people or too stupid to read the RNS. Maybe you've just picked the bits out of the RNS that suits your agenda to short the share?"

Completion of what ? The negotiations? Exclusivity (next week)? Certainly not drilling. Perhaps the licence in 6 months-ish?

It is far from as straight forward and unambiguous as you like to pretend, Scully.

Tanzania

Agree with every word of that.

I also think Jay B has done a brilliant job. When I first heard his name I was reading the RNS at a pool bar in Turkey years ago just after the Stuard Detmer era. We were down and out then. Our market cap has multiplied since then.

The whingers cut the BoD no slack for the way things are done in Tanzania and the time things take.

Not saying everything is perfect or has gone perfectly. Am saying we need to see the bigger picture. And it is a very big picture.

GLA

Thanks Tanzania!

Saw this article on Twitter and have re-posted it elsewhere.

https://microcapclub.com/2014/08/the-conviction-to-hold/

It is perhaps most relevant to Aminex though. Here is why.

The number of shares in circulation, number of retail investors, incredibly long time-frames and delays all mean that there are a lot of locked in and stale ex-Bulls here. That means that there are a lot of people ****ed off and desperate to get their money out. In Aminex that is a serious mistake IMHO.

As the article says, we are all hunting for multi-baggers. But there is no point if you trade out of them. I have been here 12 plus years. The gas (and oil ?) has been in our acreage for millions of years and is still there. In vast quantities (gas) and possibly (oil). The geology and hydro-carbon profile is why I am here and I suspect why many bought.

AEX have just and for the first time explained how they will monetise their Ntorya area asset. There is a route to market and to serious profit that involves no more dilution. Nirvana. More than that the next drill may be about to prove up (ONSHORE) multiples of the 2TCF GIIP that are already thought to be there. And there is the game-changing possibility of oil.

Having waited so long and now owning so many of these shares I refuse to sell out cheaply. I will hold and reap the rewards from my own patience. At least I hope I will and that AEX is not bought out early.

Have I traded this correctly over 12 years? In hindsight no. I could own many millions more if I had got out and back in again at the perfect times. But that is unreal. No one can do that consistently. I have bought and held. And bought more. I sold some at 7p (not enough) and bought more back all the way down from 5p.

8p changes my life. 14p means I may not need to work again. But 14p is nowhere near enough value if C1 comes in at the top end. I will hold to production and buyout.

(I am ignoring Nyuni at the moment but the Pande West Lead means we are in offshore LNG territory - Cove etc).

If you think I am an uber-Bull you are right. That is because Corporately and in funding terms we are sorted and can concentrate on the Geology. Finally.

The market is ready for our gas. There is a pipeline being built so Tanzania can export it ffs. The other operators are at maximum capacity and they need more. The stars are aligning. Finally.

One last thought, go and look at the size of the prize at C1. Compare the size of the reservoirs with N2. It is all in the presentations on the Company website. Then remind yourself of the numbers at N2 and try and apply them to the C1 reservoirs. My eyes water when i try that exercise. My calculator is not big enough to take the trillions that might be there.

I profoundly disagree with the personal attacks on Malcy and I rate him. That does not mean that I don't take responsibility for my own investment decisions. They are mine and not his. If I get it wrong it is my fault. So obvious it should not need to be stated.

Electrified, I think the BPC question I asked is pertinent. However, it was always obvious that the market was going to take the view that the Major has walked away and it was a sell last week. The question in my mind is whether the market has analysed this correctly. And there remains a question. Which is why I have retained some.

GLA

Thanks Tiptop.

Glad you are well too.

Very helpful info while I catch upon my reading but I know enough already to know this is exciting!!

You are very welcome....

Thanks Irish (and everyone else)

Have to say following you and others over from that other African Country helped with my decision to buy...

No pressure obvs !

For completeness, I asked Malcy this question on twitter yesterday (@edgartwo2)

"Malcy, #BPC did not say negotiations over they said exclusivity over. Is this a meaningless quibble or potentially significant in your view?"

He was good enough to respond in this way:

"To be frank I think that they are really up against it. If there had been any chance of a deal with this major, even if it had been massive dilution I think they would have done it. And now who will take a chance given it has been passed on by a top oil company?"

Want to thank the well-wishers. Am new here with a small stake at 12p. Like the story.

Interesting to come to a new share (my first for a year, I do not pretend to be a trader!) and get the sense of the holders here already. There is a lot of frustration around about the absence of share price action. And I understand why.

FWIW in other shares that lag that the market has means (IMHO) that if good news does come the market feels surprised and reacts to the upside (sometimes). And that is to the advantage of holders.

I am also not very clear on the newsflow. I have seent he excellent chart on twitter that sets out the drilling schedule and when the different zones on this well are due to be hit. Are we expecting news on each zone or only after the end of drilling? Is this a communicative Company?

Many thanks in advance

GGIS

Your stay patient advice, which in this share must be right, made me think of this article I saw on twitter and re-tweeted earlier @edgartwo2

https://microcapclub.com/2014/08/the-conviction-to-hold/