Member Info for edgar222

My understanding is that the EA is just that and only that. Environmental Approval.

It is not permission to drill. It is a component of permission to drill (ie. without it no permission will be given) but not permission itself.

I think that the controversy in the Bahamas about drilling anything is vastly mis-understood here. That political risk is much bigger than the financial risk of cost of drill (because the risk/reward of the cost is so compelling).

Kapkina

Just to be clear, I have no conclusions about the geology. Am only expressing a fear.

The political situation is a matter of record.

It could be that BPC were the ones to say no, of course. I don't know. But they are in a parlous situation with no funds, no way of raising the necessary funds, licence-time ticking and only they know if anyone else is truly interested. I have said I would have bitten the major's arm off for a 20% residual holding in the licence with a free carry to commerciality and got shot down for it on ADVFN. That outcome is looking pretty good right now.

So I don't know, anything is possible. If it was BPC that walked away they better have a meaningful Plan B.

There is no way to spin this as anything but bad news. I sold a family member's shares for about what they were bought for (3p ish) as the market opened and then got half of mine away at about 2.7p ish. I deliberately kept half. My holding never was a large one (in amount or proportionately to my portfolio). I am on record as saying this was a bet not an investment and it was a binary outcome.

So why did I keep some shares back?

Partly because god alone knows what the market will do and looking at some of the over optimistic posts on here you can see this in action.

Bu mainly because I think there are unanswered questions from this RNS. The main one is why BPC have not said that the negotiations are over if they are indeed over. I understand them to have a duty to say so if that is the case. The end of exclusivity (as opposed to negotiations) does smack of a possible negotiating tactic to me. The problem with this optimistic take is that the RNS tells us it was the Major who ended exclusivity.

My fear and the worst outcome is that the Major does not like the geology. That is game over.

Despite what others have claimed recently, the Govt have never approved the drilling and it is very controversial in the Bahamas and may require a referendum. That political risk may be the reason the Major has taken this step and would be a better outcome for me than the geology being dodgy. Not unreasonable for the Major to pause if there are no assurances from the Govt given the investment level.

I dont see BPC raising enough funds to go it alone.

That leaves another Major or this one coming back. If this one has gone away then there is no logical reason that the share price should be above about 1.1p where it was when this exclusivity period was announced. Arguably it should be lower as valuable time on the licences has passed.

The only reason it can be higher is that the market has been woken up to the eniticing prospect that BPC has. I have been here for years and had given up on the share when it all kicked off. The prospect is so huge that I believe it has to be drilled by someone. IF the geology has it as a real prospect. IF.

So I will maintain my small residual holding and watch carefully. I most certainly will not be buying more (even at 1p) without some further news. I would rather buy back at 5p plus after further news knowing that the sky is the limit if this is a go.

GLA

FWIW I have just stuck my toe in here having got some out of BPC this morning. Very small holding compared to my others but I like this story.

GLA

Thanks, Spike.

I am not trying to spin very bad news as good news. I just think there is a real gap in our understanding about what is going on at the moment.

It is my working assumption that if the Major had ended negotiations for a deal BPC would have to say so under the rules.

Does anyone disagree?

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/203543/bahamas-petroleum-says-exclusivity-will-end-in-farm-out-process

Pete

You rather make Drewky's case for him with such silly (always negative) comments such as the one about insolvency.

There is a dispute over payment and taxes. That is not a debt. I know of no accountant who would declare a company insolvent (which is different to write-offs) on such a basis.

Writing this with a smile on the face (btw) but methinks you are just after a rise (and I don't mean the share price).

My memory (not checked) is that Rego said West and Up Dip not Namisange.

In any event, that speech was prior to the all-important N2 data.

Pete Well that is all very interesting but, since u are not privy to the data or qualified to interpret it even if u had it, worthless. I still remember Ritson's blurt "it is an oil play" after N2. Mike Rego believes in oil migrating around the place. His numbers are immense too. So, while I agree that oil is no more than possible (though I too am neither privy nor qualified re the data) it is an issue that serious experts believe in. And whatever you say about Ritson as a corporate man/ cash manager he IS an expert on this issue.

Drewky The recent Solo raise and dilution was expressly NOT to pay for drilling but was to defend their position in negotiations (whatever that means). I too do not want to bash our partners. They stood by us in our time of need. But I fear for their position. I believe they will relinquish 12.5% as they have long stated 25% is too much for them. I wonder how they will fund even that, though. And whether Aminex would want the relinquished portion which would brjng with it the duty to fund activities, which AEX have just escaped from. Maybe I am wrong and maybe Solo will get their loan but it does not look good for them at the moment. Also, Chrisoil is ramping them on twitter. Always a sign to avoid!! He is muttering about the death spiral being over when, for the reasons given above, I dont think it is. They also have funding duties for Helium 1 and Horae Hill. Despite my pessimism for them I do wish them luck. They deserve a payday from Tz.

Drewky Again I fully agree with you. This will look very different when drill date is given. And target size. It will look even more different when the Zubs get the 25yr licence sorted. I suspect the licence situation is a red flag to institutions currently (and I understand why). I cannot work out what I want management to do next now they dont have anything to do at Ntorya etc. Nyuni seismic and development of the enormous (Trillions of cubic feet) at Pande is exciting but very expensive to drill. I reckon proving that up on top of Ntorya development will see a buyout. Gotta fix KN1 too, though my worry there is complex geology and compartmentalisation. In any event the point I am making is that Aminex can now ignore (following approval and finalisation of the excellent deal) the Ntorya development and concentrate elsewhere. I expect all that news by Christmas. But knowing Tz authorities and their timescales will not be moaning on this board if it is later.

Also at the risk of boring, I bought at 30p pre Skipper (bad) news, then at 24p and then at 16p. My regret is that I did not buy more. Is hindsight not a *****?! Am inordinately happy with where this is going. Dont have any idea what the target price is in December 2019. Assuming a doubling of reserves in Dec 2018 and initial full planned production by Dec 2019 what is the share worth then? (Or put another way, the 90p broker target is over what timescale?)

Well said, Peter. I actually think Ross is talking to himself. Am wanting to add more too when funds allow at anything below 5p but my other pesky shares dont seem to be performing either. Convinced September/October is the big news on a number of fronts, CERP included.

GG Agree with every word of that. Again.

Just wanted to echo what has been said about the quality of this board. Really excellent contributions. One of the downsides of success is the herd arriving and the contributions reducing in insight. An interesting fact about this share is how tightly held it is. The herd may have a problem getting their hands on any, which is all good for holders. Bacton is important news but I think the real catalyst is the FID and the Go on hub building. I dont think the market yet believes it will happen. The market is wrong (I believe). When the Go is given and the numbers re-crunched this is only going one way. GLA

rxdav How do you "synthesise" anything from a BB post? Cheers

Degsy I agree with you about Malcy.

matherdj

FWIW u aint filtered !

On IOG. Aminex also.

https://twitter.com/EdgarTwo2/status/1026447647895416832