Member Info for edgar222

rxdav
The only thing you get by picking bottoms is a smelly finger.
Very difficult to do
Risky too with a self appointed news deadline only a fortnight away.
But you are right without licence news this will fall further.
I take the view that with licence news I know these levels are way too low and I am happy not to achieve the absolute bottom price, because that only happens with luck.

If anyone is interested I have been trying to show Oilman Jim how wrong he is on his blog (last week) to say that the door is open to legal action against the company because of Finncap's commentary on the plans for re-working 101 and 102 (see @edgartwo2 on twitter)

I don't mind the lack of legal knowledge, though some might in the context of advising legal action.

I don't mind the pettyness.

What I have concluded, though this is probably obvious to you all already, is that he has a specific agenda to bash AAOG. If the Djeno plan Company goes bust and we all lose our shirts he will STILL not be right. And that is because he cannot know that on the evidence and information now. And yet he writes as though he does know facts.

I agree AAOG is a risk like any O&G investment. I agree the plans may not work and we might lose. But to my mind the evidence from neighbouring fields makes this a risk worth taking. That evidence is of reserves and flowrates that will transform little AAOG. The risk / reward here is very attractive, IMHO.

And I have never seen a company so consistently bashed as AAOG. It is the certainty of the bashers (including but not only Oilman Jim) that makes me doubt their ability to actually absorb the evidence as it stands and to come to a considered agenda-free view.

End of. Life is too short. I am going to continue to back my own judgments (I do ok!)

GLA

I particularly liked his explanation for how they are going to get the money AND licence equity out of the SNPC

Lack of news is only an issue if there is no reason for it. It leads to the view that there is bad news being hidden. If there is a reason for a news delay the situation is different. Aminex have a reason. The country they operate in (and which we all chose to buy the shares knowing they operate in) are re-designing their new system of licences.

The above is logical. If you want to be emotional (not just targeting you here Northern Magic) then it is deeply frustrating etc etc. Surely we have to apply logic and not emotion? Emotion does not give you cold headed business decisions about your investment money.

I recognise that applying logic has meant that I have held all the way back down from 7p. But logic might also have told me to take profit and trade back in. My decision was that was too risky and because I am here for the endgame and large amounts of gas and production I did not want to be out and miss it. The logical conclusion of THAT position is that the bull case for the shares has not changed. We are in effect in the same spot (re Ntorya) as we were when the N2 results were announced. It is just that the market allows me to buy the shares at 1/10th of the price then. So I have been buying.

It is this interface between human emotion and logical hard decision making (neither of which can ever give a perfect result) that led to the famous Buffet quote about the stock market being the perfect machine for separating the impatient from their money.

I may sound like a robot in the above. But all I am really saying is that having decided to buy a share, if you can buy the same story for cheaper it is logical to buy more. Different if the story changes, but here it has not changed and the Ntorya development has become MORE attractive because of the farmout (IMHO).

GLA. It is coming.

5p

Thanks to Offerman for the quick write up. The video is a compulsory watch. Leo Koot a class act with a CV to convince you it is not just BS.

It is the multiplicity of prospects that is exciting here. Not one roll of the dice but many. And from a self-funding position. Koot has a mad look in his eyes when he talks about finding oil in the SWP that I really like. The desire is palpable.

Am buying when I can and tucking away. Patience is not a problem with cash flow and this management team. A no-brainer.

The bit that matters (IMHO) is the production plans.

If you cannot see the obvious route to transformational profits from the Djeno and (not or) Mengo production then you are deluding yourself or have an agenda.

Nothing is without risk, including drilling a sidetrack or Mengo) but the mcap here is way too low for these plans.

Screaming buy and I will do so.

If the Djeno flows as it does next door 30p is too cheap for me to sell.

2k bopd while we sort out the topside then 5k bopd not diminishing in that scenario.

Closer to 100p.

Mather

Me too!

Macgerry

Still hoping for a licence bump myself.

I am not being funny but we have been here before. Before the rise in early 2017, utter despair. The company was in the doldrums. This board was slitting it's wrists. But the Directors had been buying. The result? Nearly 10 bagger.

The same pattern is happening now. It may be that I just think that because I have bought millions more and am deluding myself. But I dont think so. The reasons for the licence confidence that I have are well rehearsed but come down to the fact that it is win-win for both sides. The farmout partner is patiently waiting and sees Aminex as it's vehicle for East Africa. On farmout being signed Amonex need not spend another penny until they are earning $45m per annum. So just on licence news there are bags to be made.

If you then want to hold on for CH1, the prospect of oil or "only" another near-1TCF then you can do that too.

Absolute no brainer. Buy. Lots. Thank me later.

Tiburn

Agreed. The interview made sense to me, but like I have said before, this share is marmite.

Assuming they are telling the truth about oil flowing from the Djeno and the plans to produce from that level then this is massively derisked from when I first bought. It is also cheaper. A total bargain.

Never known a share for such blatant bashing.

Buy.

https://twitter.com/angloafricanog/status/1140637995726450693

Two more buys of mine of 800k and 900k shares being reported as sells.

Probably me done for now for a while.

I have been trying to sell some in order to buy them back in an ISA.

Cannot buy or sell any. No online quote available.

I now see no trades reported today at all.

Does that mean anything?!

gmcc

That must be right. This is now (IMHO) a classic situation of the market waiting for confirmation of flow etc thereby allowing the PI an opportunity.

The historic figures for Djeno flowrate mean that this is looking very good. The risk is in the workover, re-entry but no need to frac. So I suppose no one can guarantee that any drill bit will succeed but the risk is much reduced.

This is a stone cold buy for me. I would be interested to know what valuation is thought appropriate assuming we were producing and selling 5k BOPD. What p/e ratio ? 10-20?

....with news today. Production from Djeno confirmed is the headline. 5k not 1.5k (diminishing) BOPD based on neighbouring fields. The 1.5k BOPD produced $1m per month and my maths is not very good but does that not mean $3m plus per month on a market cap of sub $25m?

Plus no fraccing needed so less risk.

Buying opportunity here now.

https://twitter.com/EdgarTwo2/status/1139419757789241344

I do understand the bargepole approach.

Just this thought though. End July is the target for farmout completion. So the licence has to be some way before that if the target is to be met. The licence may not be exactly what the lawyers expect and I am sure they have factored that all into the target date.

Of course, the target might not be met at all. Whatever. I am happy at below 2p to keep buying and have been.

Fwiw the two trades of 1m this morning that are reported as sells are not. They were my buys.