Member Info for edgar222

I bought some this morning without too much difficulty. Not very many, mind.

Jcgswims on advfn

I emailed the company regarding the lack of communication, not necessarily from Saffron but in general, lack of website update, faq's etc. Gordon Stein kindly rang me this morning to discuss further. Here are a few points from the conversation.(I'm not an oil person so bear with):-

The drill rig for the flow test is on the way to Saffron along with operators etc to be ready for the approval when it comes from the Ministry (hopefully next week)

They can bring Saffron onto production pretty quickly, they already have a separator from Goudron which they can use.

Gordon said "quote me on this" that the post from Edgein on 27th Jan (see below) was pretty much spot on :-

Om,

Your post from Friday has largely been answered by Egg and Ridedaice etc.

Its pretty much that the logs have been inconclusive, they know from the mud logs that there's oil in at least these three sands that they're perforating in the LC. As you probably know its gas above oil above water in a typical scenario. Some of the sand packages could be oil only, some could be water only and some could be a slight mix. So safest thing to do is to perf only a small section at the top of the sand with oil shows and the highest resistivity and see if you get dry oil. These sands could be hundreds of feet thick. From the cautious approach taken on this well to date Friday's update didn't come as that much of a surprise.

From testing say 8ft of reservoir they can work out the productivity index, how many bbls per ft of perforations and extrapolate that out. So that can tell them a lot without the risk of perforating an aquifer if there is one down there. You produce only dry oil hopefully and don't then need huge separator tanks or water re-injection wells from the get go. So the cautious approach ties in with their previous drilling of this well.

Good to see the CO2 injection up and running hopefully they'll soon get something positive from that. Also PRD now have up to September to decide whether or not to buy the field.

Regards,
Ed.

They took on board about the outdated website and have someone looking into this including the FAQ page.

I came away from the conversation feeling excited about what Saffron may hold for us, obviously that's just my feelings so don't take it for anything else than that.

Ivans

Like your thinking but BPC and AEX not comparable.

Assume the licence, psa, farmout and all paperwork is done.

Now imagine the newsflow that follows.

Including the size of the targetted prize at CH1, which I suspect might be sooner than people are fearing.

And then add in the rest of the market who have never believed but will see the (massively reduced) risk profile and will scramble to get in.

The trick here is going to be not selling out too early just because of (understandable) fatigue!

Forgot to say....no debt.

1 TCF discovered.
Next drill another 1TCF targeted? Chance of first oil in East Africa (outside chance)
Farmout means no further dilution. Free carry to $45m pa revenue.
Market screaming for gas. Demand is there.
Farmout partner is an Omani Major (Zubair). Serious player who has openly said they want to use Aminex as their vehicle to get into Tanzania.
Licence and paperwork (regulatory) the final risk. Geological risk low (already discovered the gas). Financial risk low (free carry).
No brainer.
When this moves up it does so at speed (check early 2017).

Lots of patient LTHers here who deserve a payday (irrelevant but wanted to say it!)

GLA

Here it is. Some interpretation needed.

https://twitter.com/mtanzania/status/1221735954488201216?s=20

Certainly seeing on twitter that something (PSA?) has cabinet approval

I suspect that they do not have to RNS the delivery of a draft PSA.

But I hope they do. It is proof of the good faith of the Tanzanian Govt and may be worth more just now than 3D seismic!

in4cedros
Totally agree that the knowledge from CO2 may be useful. But useful in a possible jam tomorrow way. Not cash generative (except for the $4.2m!).
Personally, I am still hopeful that waterflood may surprise.

Thechancers
Of all the reasons to be in CERP (and there are many) the Co2 injection project strikes me as an odd one to pick.
The upside is capped at $4.2m. That being the buyout price as per the extended FRAM agreement with PRD.
$4.2m is nice. But it is not exactly a company maker.
What am I missing?

If the tweet Drewky found and I posted is accurate it is very significant, at least for me.

The market has been worrying, I suspect, that the Tanzanians are not serious about business and investment and are about to screw over western companies in some way. Both the fact of a draft PSA and the signing off of the Barick mining licence/PSA (Barick is ex Acacia) show me at least that they do not have such an agenda. It may not be fully agreed yet (though it miht be) but this is concrete evidence (if true) of bona fides on the part of the Govt.

I will buy more on Monday if I can.

https://twitter.com/mtanzania/status/1220764715036610561?s=19

Hat tip Drewky

.....and for the last time....

....IT IS NOT A DISGRACE. THE BoD HAVE NOTHING TO SAY BECAUSE THEY ARE WAITING FOR NEWS THEMSELVES.

And for all we know they are in a sensitive negotiating position and to say anything might annoy the Tz Govt, who (by the way) are in control of the timetable.

I should clarify for accuracy that by "conversations" below I mean on twitter...

Pointless exercise this but...

My prediction is a Zen win and not nearly as close as some here think.

The radio silence from Align speaks volumes. Miton was the final obvious pointer.

Either way, there has been some real deluded nonsense around AAOG recently. Phrases like Miton not having shareholders interests at heart and a lot of emotional crap. Miton and others are duty bound (that is legal (fiduciary) duty bound to their own investors. They have to be hard headed about this business decision.

None of the above means I am happy with what has happened and I agree there might be criminality involved. Might.

But Align came nowhere convincing me with actual proof that their proposal had the backing they said it did. And that was the end of that (for me). If they had proved it and cut the flannel, I would have supported it.

We live to fight another day (in other shares). 10% and carry here is not nothing. It will be galling that Zen get the benefit of this asset.

I am not someone who believes in conspiracies. But with AAOG the commentators talked down the asset and called fraud from very early on. On the asset they have been proved to be wrong, the evidence for which is the fight to get hold if it. The asset (Tilapia) is worthwhile. One of the worst culprits for me was "Oilman Jim". I had various conversations with him about why he was so adamant the asset was worthless when the evidence did not support that conclusion. He never answered satisfactorily and is now crowing that he was right all along. He was not right about the asset. He was right about the way the Company was being run, it turns out.

Be careful out there, people.

https://twitter.com/liam_whitcher/status/1215602291308474369?s=21

https://twitter.com/mgrahamwood/status/1215202275800555520?s=20

I asked Malcy for his views on twitter.

He responded "Impressed, will write up tomorrow on the move visiting companies today."

FWIW I am still here! And thinking the opposite. Will buy and tuck away.