Member Info for edgar222

You know what they say about stale bulls? Those locked in who started out bullish but held as the share price went down and are now desperate to get out. There can be no other share with such delays, surely? There must be a large number of PI investors looking to get out of Aminex as soon as possible. Assuming good news, they will be doing that just as institutions pile in. Am determined not to sell too early myself. Just something to think about if the share price starts going actually...you know....properly up!

https://twitter.com/edgartwo2/status/1278249555902021632?s=21

I assume you mean with the news and not generally? ;)

It could have been a 6 month postponement with debts being called in. Neither happened. I think a reasonable reading of it is that they are nearly at the end of the legalities and paperwork and just need a fortnight to sort it.

I also think that the Tz govt might have been legitimately asking why they would approve the farmout and works programme when 25% of it was not funded (Solo). Hopefully that looks a bit better than it did now.

So when I first read the RNS I read it as positive. I have re-read it and the hysteria on here several times and have not changed my view. Which is NOT me saying that I know what is going to happen. But an assessment of risk is very much pointing me to hold and not overplay the legal wording about no guarantees in that RNS.

Buckler

You claimed unanimity. That is what I am responding to. I may well be in a minority.

Chill.

You dont speak for me either.

I am hoping for a Barick like clearing of the decks. 25 yr licence, repayment, works approval, gsa, psa, farmout.

May be overly optimistic but Barick went from suing the Govt to best mates amidst a fanfare of publicity and media pr.

Fingers crossed.

Mather

Good question! Obviously I have no real idea. But if it is fair to compare the 2017 highs then I would hope that the lead up to CH1 results (not spud) would get us there. The question is whether that is a fair comparison and I don't know. I think it is. The company is in an incredibly strong position with the farmout concluded. Cash is not a worry and I am not even factoring KN1 and Nyuni into that. This is just purely the Ntorya area.

A knockout gas find at CH1 (by which I mean 1.5 - 2 TCF) or even the elusive oil means we are then way beyond that level, IMHO.

Tanzania

Your target share prices are not far off mine. 7p was what it hit in 2017 pre N2 flow rates disappointment and at a time when CH1 was described as back to back with N2. Of course we had 75% of the licence then and only 25% going forward. The million dollar question is what impact the Farmout will have on valuation. No more money to raise and a carry to $45m pa but less licence. It depends on whether you choose to value on an earnings or a reserves basis. Will be interesting to see what the market makes of it. But I am holding tightly to my golden tickets. Been here so long that I am not selling too low now when the finishing line is in sight (remember the early production system promised in the farmout announcement?)

Next Tuesday

FWIW I thought the questioner was good and Leo was not.

He has not explained this deal to me. He like Perseverance 1 and wants to roll the dice. I don't. If I did I would have held my BPC shares. He started it by saying we need cash. This deal potentially takes cash away from Cerp. it does not add up.

All that said I can see that when my CERP shares convert to BPC I will have an exit as the P1 well comes closer. I will be out before those drill RESULTS. Majors have walked away from this well and that speaks volumes to me. There is also Cuba but perhaps that is less relevant.

GLA

Willec

Not 83 shares. It is 803,000 shares per million Cerp held. The conversion is 0.803

I entirely agree with your praise of Brian Hall. Too much utter nonsense talked about him on here and elsewhere.

Exactly the same can be said of Jay B, IMHO.

Multiply 15m (Cerp shares) by 0.803 for the number of BPC shares you will have.

And yes. If BPC hit the oil that they think is there the shares will explode. But the most important word in that sentence is "If". No major has come aboard to drill this and their data room has been open for years and looked at by many.

Lgo

I would vote no and follow the plans but this deal tells me the assets are not what we thought they were and there is no point.

I asked Malcy what he thought. Write up coming. Not good for Cerp holders whatever way you look at it, he replies.

Of course there are a number of possible scenarios in play. Knowing Leo Koot is a superb oil man and deal maker, would he have merged his Company at a value of $25m if Saffron really was everything we hoped?

I held BPC for years. The last major spike was on news that they were in exclusive talks with a major.

The major walked away. No one explained why, of course. I took it that they did not rate the geology but that was only my take. If you think that much oil is down there and you are a Major Co then the cost is small change. That was when I sold.

I didn't buy Cerp to play the BPC portfolio. I bought Cerp because I liked and believed Leo Koot. The man has not become an idiot overnight. I am convinced there is more explaining to do and more information and news to come. But I was psychologically moving Cerp into lower risk territory as it was self sufficient (sort of) and would not need major raises. They have plenty of stuff to be getting on with already. I think this massively increases the risk profile of Cerp but also the reward profile.

Not happy/bemused/scratching my head tonight but will watch and (try to) learn for now.

Max

If he knows the drill cannot be until Q1 2021 would you prefer he lied now and said it would be earlier?

I used to own BPC but I don't any more. I own Cerp and want more when funds allow!

There is no doubt that the BPC prospect is excitingly enormous. But they have had majors in the data room and then discussions that have walked away. It is an expensive drill and a binary bet. Less expensive than it once was, to be fair.

So for me, this changes Cerp from being self sufficient to a raiser of funds again. But risk/reward. The reward if it works is one of the top 4 oil prospects on the planet.

My gut reaction, fwiw, is that this is better for BPC than Cerp, who have enough to be getting on with. And that is based on my own conclusion that those majors walked away and did not like what they saw (enough).

Not sure how to say it differently. What I mean is where two entities interests overlap. Like, say, oh I dunno, Ara and Aminex. They both want the same thing. No conflict.

But even if there was conflict in their aims, goals or practices that does not mean that the new Aminex CEO has a problem. He has acted transparently and resigned from Ara and his consultancy role. The fact of a recusal from a board meeting (by John Bell, you say) is the governance system working.

So no, this Aminex shareholder is not at all bemused.