Member Info for edgar222

Only posting my tweet because Malcolm Graham Wood liked it. If he agrees with this sentiment that could be important.@edgartwo2"Someone is going to have to explain to me what risk is left at Aminex now the farmout is approved. Funding sorted to huge income stream. Gas already discovered. Market in place. Major operating now. Watch this re-rate."

Drewky incapacitated at moment and asked me to post this via twitter. All credit is his not mine:

Best wishes and Congratulations to you all. It was never in doubt and here is an updated list for those poor souls that baited for it.
Exploratory Op today but Lot's of Love to you all.... Drewky 5 TCF GIIP - for Ruvuma - Ntorya 1.9TCF GIIP - 368 BCF 1C - 763 BCF 2C & 1162 BCF 3C
io commercialisation study est. $143m spend to recover 3/4 tcf based on gas price, $3.27/mcf is worth $25m to $35m cashflow per annum to Aminex from 2020 to 2049” "Fully covered"
FARM OUT - APT have committed to spending a possible $110milion on the full field development of the Ruvuma project which includes a committed spending of $40million to Aminex. $5m cash & balance $35million paid as full carry up to 40MMscf/d at which point any unspent remainder will be paid in cash from gas profits.
APT acquire 50% of the Ruvuma project with Aminex retaining 25%. Solo Oil hold the remaining 25%
“APT will establish an early production system to achieve an accelerated first gas to a minimum a MINIMUM gross rate of 40MMscf/d by Qtr1 2020” representing full carry to minimum $10 to $12m p.a. cashflow “Not revenue – Free Cash”
"Much more expected! Not worth building a 30Km pipeline for just 40MMscf/d"
Adding the Solo share of costs $35m gives $140m total potential spend & brings full carry to profitability as per “io” projections
"Any further spending will be self-generated"
“Chikumbi-1 well pad is complete and hard road to site” – drill maybe this year most likely early Qtr1. Hard road means rainy season will have limited effect.
“Multiple Targets - Gas - Oil at the lower level - Oil shows found down dip at previous drill”
“Planned around same time” APT will acquire 3D seismic data over 200km2 to optimise drilling targets”
Based on results of CH1 and 3D seismic APT will build a 33km pipeline to Mdimba gas plant to allow for maximum gas delivery “planned for 2019”
“Q4 2021? Monetisation to coincide with demand call” Date adjusted for 18-month delay
“Plan” Drill CH1 alongside 3D & back with further 3 to 4 drills (possibly Qtr3/4 2021 early 2022) Dates adjusted
Full field development is projected to 140mmcfd by mid-2020’s
Awaiting news on “Kiliwani remediation and potential income stream”
News also awaited on Possible further drill at Kiliwani South
Nyuni – Plans for 3D seismic
Competitors running maximum capacity and introduced compressors to keep up their pressures. Demand forecast to soon outstrip supply!
**TPDC have announced feasibility study for gas pipeline to supply Uganda. UPDATE: AGREEMENT NOW SIGNED FOR CONSTRUCTION
Similar pipeline agreement to supply Kenya announced last week. (Aminex in pole position to supply)
**Pensions funds have been investing 20% more in Tanzanian business in recent years sparking further demand
**SADC nations agreed to develop plan to allow gas imports from Tanzania, Mozambique & Namibia

....relieved.

Well done all LTHers. You know who you are.

Happy to stay and watch the re-rate in this (almost) risk-free company.

1. Not counting the rest of the working day, 4 working days to go. 3 if you think the deadline is Thursday at 7am!

2. I would not want to be out of this over the weekend.

I am happy to do so if anyone requires.

Page, agree with that.

It isn't. But if they want to bring the Tanzanian licence with them, that is what approval is required for.

Blackgold,

No, I don't. I actually believe they really do want the farmout to go ahead. They are planning exporting gas ffs! The offshore is not the gas they are planning on exporting. That leaves us. They have never pulled the plug on foreign companies before (although it has looked like they might).

When it is signed and we are going on to CH1, 6 other wells, full field development and an enormous (compared to current mcap) income stream we will look back at this and laugh. I will pour you all another martini on the deck of my new yacht ("The Jay") during the £1 party and we will remember how nerve wracked we all were. ;)

A capital gain tax charge on a transaction that is subsequently cancelled?

What do you think?

Page

And why did they charge and accept a tax payment that is repayable if the transaction fails....

;)

Like other holders on here I am relieved IOG have walked away.

Huge risk of overpaying and we have our own fully funded and highly profitable development to be getting on with.

The only think I dont like about this share is how difficult it is to buy any!

Up significantly

9 working days to go and counting....

GLA holders.

If making life changing amounts of money were easy, everyone would be doing it!

I agree DalPat.

There are hundreds of little bits of evidence for the farmout going through but the big ones are the licence extension and the CGT bill. Neither make any sense if the Govt was going to pull the plug. The Capital Gain crystallised on the farmout transaction, according to the Govt.

Then add in the messages from the election campaign, both Govt and opposition, with gas to power as a central plank of both campaigns.

Could be as simple as waiting for a pre-planned photo-opp in the GE campaign?!

Lots of noise from both Govt and opposition in that campaign about use of gas to power the domestic market. Also, exporting gas. The LNG marked offshore gas is not the gas they are talking about because it is going to LNG. So the only source of gas they have for all the plans and demand is ours. What I am trying to say is that I believe it will be a big splash announcement by the Govt in the election campaign. Why would they wait and miss getting electoral credit for the news?

The farmout is still win-win for Govt and Aminex/Ara and it makes no sense not to approve it, IMHO. The Govt cannot fund the development themselves.

I applaud the tactic that communicates that we are running out of patience.

Squeaky bum time, for sure.

Joel

You aren't. I aint going anywhere.

I agree Aminex have options, Matt. I obviously prefer the farmout but it is not over if thay does not get approval.

This is obviously about pressure on Govt. We will walk away but have millions more makes no sense otherwise.

Correct tactic too.

Cheers cperkin. Understand.

Cperkin

That pre dates the October presentation and then the January 2019 EGM presentation.

The 40 mm cf/d relates to the early production system, I believe.

Both the latter documents are clear about up to $40m pa net to Aminex.

The farmout gets Aminex to $40m pa net to Aminex. See corporate presentation October? 2018.

Full field development at Ntorya is circa 6 wells. All free carried.