Member Info for edgar222

The other thing that occurs to me is just clock how much expenditure there is on a proper plan before anything is spudded!

$23m! Aminex could never have paid for all this. Thank God for the farmout.

Interesting that SCIR is up at the moment. Cash calls on them just got bigger prior to CH1 drill results.

(Writing before market positive spin is the work programme is confirmed by the new operator and real cash is going into the full field development. For me, that is not so positive because I never thought that was in doubt.

The Q2 2022 spud date is a blow. There is no spinning out of that conclusion.

Same typo is in SCIR's RNS

More info in SCIR's RNS

RNS out

Jay bought most of his shares with his own money. Real skin in the game during the raise for N2. Some awards I am sure but vast majority bought.

Buckler

Agree with you £250m too much for now/today. But run up to spud, drill and results will be different. The issue for me is how comparable 2017 value and mcap is. Guess the market will tell us!

GLA

Well I said licence reduction. Thats the great unknown in terms of valuation. I would argue that it is better to have 25% of something that will be developed (on a free carry) than 75%of something that will not be because you dont have any cash.

So I think AEX is worth more than the £250m in May 2017. But I can see that is arguable. Either way, its miltiples more than current price!

This is fag packet, not precise.

2017 between N2 and what is now CH1 (would have been N3, should have been "back to back") the mcap was circa £250m.

Now approaching that second drill the mcap is circa £32m.

We are on a full carry but with a licence reduction. I dont know what is a fair price in the run up to CH1. I do know it is multiples of this price.

This is appraisal drilling with a secondary target that is not wildcat but is exploration. Full carry. Geological risk as low as it gets. Market waiting for gas. Govt on board with plans and structure of enterprise (finally).

GLA.

TITM

Completely agree and have been saying this since the farmout was announced. What is the risk? I guess more delays while we await approvals from the Govt? There is a licence extension(s) due in May. But the Govt has just announced that Magafuli is shaking up the licencing system so that approvals will be granted within 14 days.

Delays more generally. Aminex is operating in an area where transport is difficult and there is little infrastructure. Not new and is improving. If you bought these shares not knowing that then more fool you.

My point really is that it is a risk of delays / timescales and not fundamentals. No brainer from here. I remain completely relaxed about the next few months. Like others am waiting to see the planned works and timescales but I am not selling my golden tickets too soon!

Buckler

Am enjoying the goat.

But can I just point out that in terms of Aminex returns, low to high, you could have got about x7-x8 in 2017 and x4 this year.

It hasn't really happened yet (we all know) but those returns are not nothing.

BG

Not sure you can say the further acreage has been lost, yet.

All we know is the extension did not include it.

You may be right but its not established yet.

It would be a departure from their credit card business...

Og newbie

Very possibly you are right.

But do not discount those of us who have held for years and averaged down and are still holding. I have doubled my holding between N2 and the farmout announcement.

With anything like a medium term view this is the bargain of a lifetime at 1p.

Blackgold

You or Page will not get an apology from Dunder. Ignorant person.

Also, he never did understand the farmout properly. I can see from others responses that he still does not get it.

Page

Often boe is expressed as calorific value, not commercial value and therefore is not an accurate yardstick to translate value of gas.

Ara are a private company and will not RNS ever.

It is up to Aminex to RNS what news they get from Ara (the operator).

Thats not just semantics, it is important to know the chain of communication.

Worth looking at the Ara Petroleum website and their emphasis on hetting things done quickly.

...while we wait for the work plans meeting.

Lots of negativity about the wait.

But know this. The work plans are contractually set now in the farmout terms. All we are waiting for is timescales.

Lol Crusty.

Possibly. My target sell price keeps rising. But I have learned from April 2017. Got to bank some profit. Not sold a penny at these levels and will not before the 6-8p range. Longer term it is worth more than that too.

Hardnose

I am sure as I can be that we will get back to 3p and your break even. I think that might be in short order. I think it is worth that now. Then as plans unfold and CH1 is spudded, it is worth more.

You have done the hard yards. The end is in sight. GLA