Member Info for edgar222

....deal to be done with ATOG?

Anyone?

gmcc
I understand your conclusion on AAOG and you may prove to be right.
I bought some more yesterday with my eyes wide open. Basically there is a fight over the assets and the share is at an all time low. That has the potential for opportunity.
I would just say this. We all make mistakes. If you can learn from them and re-group you can re-coup and more. I have in the past. So don't give up.

….in one very material respect.

The Align deal proposes that Riverfort sell their shares at a certain price. The Company cannot agree to that on behalf of a 3rd party (Riverfort).

Skittish posts below fascinating. If there is a modicum of truth to Directors trashing the Company's interests then we are talking criminal charges. I mean the "Tunisia Two". And I recognise that proving it is a very big if.

Particularly fascinating on the dilemma facing Sarah Cope. One deal better but unproved and riskier. What to do? The laying out of that issue by Skittish has put perfectly into words and crystallised what I have been thinking while reading today.

So yes, not to late to do the right thing. But what is that? If Jub can prove the funds that would tip it for me (I think). There is still time.

https://www.guerillainvesting.co.uk/2020/01/02/open-letter-to-aaog-finncap-nomad-who-the-fk-are-oxford-energy-ltd/

To answer my own question, the plan is not the Djeno but the Mengo…

www.alignresearch.co.uk/anglo-african-oil-gas/aaog-statement-from-proposed-director-nominee-alexander-macdonald/

Re-reading the Jub RNS from AAOG. And it reads better than the first read-through!

Does anyone know off the top of their heads what the re-entry to access the Djeno will cost and will the Jub loan of £5m cover it assuming no funds from Govt and AAOG paying 100% of the costs. And will that money then also cover getting the Djeno oil to market? I suspect not.

Tiptop

I know you as a genuine shareholder. I do not believe you need to apologise to anyone. Yes, you are positive on the shares you hold. But. We each have a responsibility to make up our own minds having done the research. I am in AAOG because I first heard about it because I spotted you here. I researched and bought. If I have losses it is because of my own decision making.

I agree I don't think this is over by a long shot.

Best wishes

Fwiw, what I am taking from this is that the market does believe in the oil find and the asset.

At the moment I am with Zenith not Jub but need more details from both (especially Jub).

Can I sell to myself the thought Zenith deal is like a farmout for a feee carry and a 20% retention? The wild card in that scenario is the cash shell status. Does that make a difference? (I don't yet know the answer)

Am I being wildly optimistic? Possibly but gotta have something to hold onto here.

GLA. HNY.

The most optimistic scenario I can come up with is that Sefton and Berwick have fallen out with the Board of AAOG because they refused the ATOG deal. It just happens that this coincides with a Govt who cannot pay or is playing hardball during licence negotiations. The two are not linked. They have still hit the Djeno and still need to sidetrack it.

The pessimistic take on it is that the Djeno is not a commercial discovery and the Directors are leaving a sinking ship. But the problem I have with that is the dishonesty that such a scenario involves. I know punters think such dishonesty is widespread but I don't. It is exceptional and not the norm.

Either way this is now a bit binary. You either believe they have an oil strike or you don't. At these levels it might be worth a punt but it might be good money after bad too.

I think I tend to the view that it is more likely to be a Govt playing hardball in licence negotiations coupled with a boardroom spat. Any news of progress will see a jump in share price.

Not one for the widows and orphans fund. GLA.

Artie, Was it to that nice man in Nigeria? I did the same. No sign yet. But Aminex is operating in Tanzania, so that's ok. Obvs.

It was March 2017-ish when they finished the last drill and we were told the "back to back" CH1 drill was next. Nearly 3 years.

I remember it because I was sitting on a ski lift in Spain watching the share price tick up and thinking our day had come. In a sense it had but like others I did not sell enough at 7p plus. Hindsight is wonderful.

But the take away from that experience (for me, anyway) is that when this share price moves it does so quickly and significantly. That is because they have already discovered so much gas and are about to drill for really eye watering amounts more, with a very low mcap and no funding issues. The risks here are all political/regulatory.

In the meantime I have almost doubled my and my family's holdings since March 2017. Been buying from below 2p. Have waited so long it will not kill me to wait a bit longer.

The other takeaway from me is that it is not the Company's fault. For many well-rehearsed reasons. (Lights touchpaper and stands back).

FWIW I suspect this was a communication ****-up. And not good. Solo are our friends and supporters. A mistake.

But I do think Solo have an issue with funding the plans. We are (or will be) on a free carry. Assuming the CH1 drill is $8m (total) and the rest of the immediate plans for 2020 are $40m (from the last RNS and I assume that is total but may just be Ara/Aminex' share?) then Solo need $12m (one quarter of 8 plus one quarter of 40) for 2020.

I think we know they are good for the CH1 drill. I am confident that with their Scirocco deal they will be good for it all. And I want to support Solo not cut their throats.

Are the above figures correct?

Very glad to hear that Jay is well.

I always rated him. I always thought he got a lot of unjustified and ill-informed criticism. When his farmout happens I hope he will become richer along with the rest of us.

....are selling upstream Trinidad resources.

....I wonder....

Hmmmmmmm

Thanks again, Robbie. Genuinely excited about Aminex (again). Not a good state to make investment decisions in! Need to calm down.

As they sort out licences for other companies they have been resolving payment disputes at the same time. They are trying to set up a whole new (fit for purpose) system here. A non-geological problem with frontier exploration! Nearly there.

Thanks Tiptop, those are my views too but reassuring to know you agree

#AAOG is asleep. I remain optimistic. The geology has not changed during this wait for action.

I just wonder how likely is this theory? Views welcome.

AAOG are in negotiations with the Govt about back costs as well as future costs for the sidetrack well. The Govt dept has no money and is already having to pay off back costs incrementally. The future costs compound their problem. AAOG are stuck while this is resolved. My hope is they are negotiating a free carry for the Govt's licence share (44%?) to be paid in more licence coming to AAOG.

FWIW I would welcome an uplift in our licence share even at the cost of cash (past and future) because AAOG has effectively funded 100% of the exploration activities to date anyway.

Also FWIW these sorts of Govt wheels turn slowly (I own loads of Aminex, don't get me started) and this would explain what looks like inactivity from the outside but may well not be.

Any views on the above?

Also, had a brief exchange on twitter with Stockbible who was making the point that onshore flow rates in the Djeno are not "proved". While that might be accurate (?) I don't know of any geological reason to suggest the flow rates are any different offshore to onshore. In fact, onshore is updip and potentially better? Have I missed something?