Member Info for DYOR2

Agreed, the FDP was technically signed off in Nov 2021 by the MNR and we are now where we are only producing at the lower end of guidance.

There are 6 main issues for the KRG to resolve with the Baghdad Gov. the Oil and Gas Licensing is just one of them.

In my oppinion the O and G issue will take longer to resolve than people think, GKP and others are currently on illegal licences according to the highest court in Iraq.

It will get resolved but not until both sides have discussed it for a long time, this part of the world is renown for taking time over these type of issues, even if Sudani (Iraq PM) said he will hope to resolve it in 6 months in Oct.

A buyout or FDP of GKP will also not take place until the legitamacy of the licence is confirmed.

The Iraq Gov may just use time to delay a resolution knowing FDP's and investment will be stallled and therefore add leverage to Iraq's argument.

Getting a resolution to the issues in Kurdistan and cementing a better relationship with the Baghdad Gov. that will allow legislation to be changed with the passing of it through the Baghdad parliament, will take a considerable amount of time.

The oil licensing is part of the bundle of issues that need resolving.

The KRG will also play hard ball, they need to, to secure their revenue but this will mean the negotiations will be protracted.

Daltry

I would suggest the 7.7p is what the market has valued HUR at in the present circumstances, however an approved sale price will be much higher.

Itsawrap

Yes I think so, presumably it will continue at a pedestrain rate.

I am also dissappionted in the SBB so far, the resolution was past to permit purchases up to 10 % of the Companies's shares, approx 12 mil. SBB less than 5% are meanless and so far UJO has purchases about 0.5%.

As you have stated maybe they are waiting on the SP dropping further but it does seem to of bottomed, I can anly think they are being more conservative due the tax changes and the uncertainity of captial requirements going forward.

I am positive for the SP in the near term though if some of are expected news is positive.

Unti the legitimacy of our licence is assured and the payments stream confirmed ie. from the KRG or Baghdad, I can't see the FDP moving forward.

The Baghdad Government are playing hard ball and will ensure their authority is exercised in Kurdistan.

With GJP operating with an illegal license and the Iraqi Government taking control in Kurdistan the likely hood of expansion is remote until all the issue are resolved.

Olivia

I agree with your statement regarding the field but the Company does have a wider strategic aim with Bisc and WN etc, which will increase replacement reserves, hopefully.

The confirmation of the FDP is the real booster for the SP or confirmation of a buyout. Both are unlikely with the current situation in Kurdistan regarding the legitimacy of the oil licensing and the strong enforcement stance of the Baghdad Gov.

POO has risen to $80 so that will not be factor in the SP dropping.

Olivia

Good post and so true

I wouldn’t agree with your valuation of UJO, a lot of analysts have targets of circa 60p bearing in mind we hit 52p recently. If the drilling and development plans over the next 12 months are successful the 60p could be conservative.

The KRG delegation is currently in Baghdad and is in talks to resolve the issue regarding the legitimacy of KRG oil and gas licensing.

The new Iraqi Government has expressed a desire to resolve the issues ASP potentially with an interim agreement prior to a full agreement.

Some people believe an amicable outcome is imminent, which should allow us to proceed with our FDP.

A typical time scale for data analysis, site visits and potential audits to finalise a negotiation would be 6 months. Reducing cash on account makes the transaction smaller rather than having to negotiate to purchase cash.

I think the dividend will hold and potentially another could be planned into a negotiation.

Generally the future is looking better all the time, I am hoping for 14-18p final settlement, including divs.

The problem with the CEO/CFO, if CA have kept them on to assist in a sale, is it’s very much like turkeys voting for Xmas.

We really need CA to get a tight grip on the situation.

The only reason I can think off is CA need the CEO/CFO to input into talks concerning a sale.

One thing he dos'nt do is spend his time perfecting his presentation skills.

joo

Agreed, but also HUR is waiting to be sold at a higher SP than we are currently trading at, it’s also the opinion of a few other posters.

Gloucester

Where do you think Kerogen (16% stake holder) fit into the equation?

Apparently their average is 15p so any corperate action, apart from CA selling their stake off market, would require their approval to secure success. This would lend itself to any action to have a value crater than 15p.

I personally think P8 was not pushed in the correct manner to ensure the SP stays low for some kind of deal.