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Gloucester
Excellent thoughts, may concern is how that fits in with CA’s timeline and exit. The BOD have not contracted a drill rig yet for P8, their must be more in the mix and discussions than we are aware of. I do think you are on the right track, we must drill to secure value and a future.
Sense
Thanks for taking the lead on this and hopefully we will get what is required regarding the monthly updates.
I think a P8 drill if successful will realise a greater SP rise than a T/O or merger at our present status quo, in the next 15 months, which is what CA require. Sharing the costs of the drill and risk would also be my chosen path maybe with a precondition of a T/O or merger if successful.
At the moment I would welcome any other Company’s leadership to take us out.
In 4-6 weeks we should know the direction our Company is going to take, it would be great to get P8 confirmed but there are doubts on it being drilled, a T/O or merger is also probable. Also the purchase of another asset. The uncertainty is restricting the SP from rising, hopefully we shall all be enlightened next month and reap some some decent, long waited returns.
GLA.
We need a Management Team that know how to add value to a company. At present I don’t see this from our BOD, they have stated we will have a FWP by the end of next month. Our cash pile needs investing as soon as possible to reap any rewards, running our single well to the end with no plan and cash in the bank being reduced in real terms by inflation is not a plan our BOD should be pulling a pay cheque for.
I am hoping a partner will appear and assist in reducing the risk of investing that CA will feel comfortable with otherwise they will not get their much sort after ROI by end of next year.
Sense
The shutdown was stated at the AGM as being planned for 2 weeks.
Sense
I can’t recall the SH name but it was the guy who was in the middle of the table at the Clarence, you sat at one end and I was at the other and there were 3 SH’s between us.
I hope that helps.
Sorry I can’t be more helpful.
Sense
From what I recall from the AGM, drilling and completion to tieback for prodcution would be conducted within 2023. The weather window for drilling starts around April in the WOS.
My concern is they need to contract a drill rig very soon otherwise the rates will be extremely high or we may have problems sourcing a rig.
There is no way of accurately determining what a well will flow until its drilled and tested. Its also impossible to determine the water and/or gas content.
We sould have resonable data to make any drill very targeted by the data we have to hand.
If we drill a P8 and it’s flows at reasonable rates the economic life of P6 will be extended, as total production will be increased. I also think we maybe able to some work on P6 that reduces the water contact, it is too risky now due to it being our sole revenue producer, but that should change over the next 9 months.
The SP would be significantly higher if we have another producer which would be brought online next summer before CA have to exit.
I would also think the market would be better able to absorb large selling if we where much more profitable will a reduced risk and better future.
GB
The lift price would be significantly less than $45 if the new well produced 10kb and was combined with our current 8kb.
Maris said at the AGM they would only proceed if they are confident of a $100mil return. You illustration shows that is capable of they hit a sweet spot.
At this stage the reservoir show be modelled so the “chance of success” show be high especially if they try and target fb and sandstone similar to P6. Our knowledge of the water contact should reduce that risk on future drills.
Tiger
I would put my 5,300,000 shares behind it.
Great read, thanks.
The question is where does that leave us in the global energy demand problems.
Sandstone is more permeable than FB and normally allows better flows rates. FB relies on hitting the large fractures which if successful can provide excellent flow rates witnessed with P6 however the accuracy has to be extremely specific or even lucky to hit these large fractures. If sandstone is targeted the chance of success of the well is increased in my opinion.
P6’s toes entered sandstone and provide a lot of our flow.
Great post, we know we have the oil we just need to connect with P8.
I attended the AGM with fellow SH's and met for our discussion afterwards in the Clarence.
Many of the points have also been mentioned by posters, but ultimately it’s how it all affects the SP.
A P8 drill will be well received by the market, although it is currently being planned to target FB, I would prefer the sandstone.
The BOD is looking for acquisitions which will diversify the Company's risk and produce revenue, there is a possibility we will drill and acquire other assets.
Our risks with the ESP pumps failing are not catastrophic, it takes a vessel and weather window to replace the upper ESP, the lower maybe able to be brought online. The cost is a few £100K and the down time, weather dependant should only be a few weeks.
The Company communications and the promotion of the Company will be improved, going forward, this was acknowledged by the CEO.
All in all, a lacklustre performance by the BOD at the AGM, but the news flow with bonds being paid, potential P8 drill confirmed in September and the current cash flow miantained at a lift price of $35 should bring about a lift in the SP.
A successful P8 brought online next summer would bring us to multiples of where we currently are.
It was mentioned at the AGM that CA have until end of next year in order to wrap up the fund.
I will pop in the Clarence prior to the meeting
Sense
I am attending the AGM, I received a Letter of Representation from Interactive Investor a few days ago. It’s states my share holding and is signed by II.
If you fancy meeting nearby let me know.