Member Info for DrPatience

LtdAxis, yes indeed! Whatever way you cut it, the upside is massive.
I take the 52.5p with a pinch of salt, not because it may not be a reasonable ultimate state (for now), but more because I feel we will see monetisation events ongoing and that these will occur before each field has been completely derisked. That means one will need to apply higher discount factors, which will commensurate with the exact timing. You can do many many forecast models on the different scenarios, but my back of an envelope scenario is a multibagger in the 7.5-12.5 p range within a year max two, with a dream scenario around 20p in two years' time.
Not an exact science, but what I feel reasonably happy about as my potential exit level.
Works for me...

Managed to download from here on my laptop (may have signed up in the past, I think):

https://www.allenbycapital.com/our-research/

Worth a read . Huge upside even when heavily discounting for risks!!

"Deltic Energy plc (DELT.L) has established itself over the past year as a leading North Sea explorer. The highlight was clearly the Pensacola discovery in the Southern North Sea (SNS) in January 2023. This was the largest gas discovery in the UK sector since Tolmount in 2011. The next 18 months or so could see some highly influential news flow. Operationally, the key events are a committed exploration well on the SNS Selene prospect in Q3 2024 and an appraisal well on the Pensacola discovery in..."

Has anybody read the full text? (Seems it requires subscription)

spike, I agree wrt licences, otherwise the SP would already be much higher.
Concrete monetisation will make a huge, immediate difference, as and when we hear something. Just need to wait, patiently!
I also agree with others that a Shell takeover is not likely. Farm down maybe; which is more in line with the Delt playbook in fact.

It seems poo dog splashed out £8.32 and bought 462 shares yesterday afternoon. Welcome back poo dog, are you going to support the share now? Good luck, you will do really well out of this! This time, just hold your nerve, patience will pay off!!

Indeed Machoman!

You all may also recall what Proactive Investors said about Pensacola on 8 Feb:
"There’s new source of valuable and relatively easy to monetise gas in the UK.

Not only is it the North Sea’s largest new discovery, it is probably amongst the best timed given the urgency of demand for domestic resources and the commercial value of nearby, low-transit cost gas supplies to UK industry and households.

For Shell, it is a boon not only as a value-creation exercise but it is likely that a subsequent development of Pensacola will, under the UK’s Energy Levy rules, generate tax reliefs to offset higher taxes across the British operations.

At Deltic it is validation of the small-cap firm’s approach – which, so far, is about picking up low-cost early stage projects, partnering with larger firms which will lead projects, test with drilling, and then, in the fullness of time, lock in created value through transactions.

The company today said it would now consider all options for its 30% interest in Pensacola including its participation in future appraisal and development programmes and/or a partial or full sale of its stake in the discovery."

EVERYTHING IS JUST RIGHT, WE JUST NEED TO GIVE THE DELT TEAM TIME TO DO THE PENSACOLA DEAL AND WAIT FOR THE NEXT RNS!! ALSO, MORE LICENCES = MORE FUTURE DEALS = MORE FUTURE VALUE!!

Noel et al, thanks for sharing the various IEA and G7 info!
My take - even though UK has made (non-binding) pledges to stop financing new international fossil fuel projects - is that national needs very much is in the hands of UK plc and that energy security will continue to be at the top of the agenda. We have an extended gas network with most people still using gas boilers, so any transition to heat pumps or other solutions will take years/decades.
The latest licence round gives it away!!

Sjm, Noel, spot on!
I would rather wait for real news, real monetisation deals, as and when they are ready. Poopdog is not paid, I cannot see anybody paying for such unrefined drivel. He clearly has little else to do, I kind of feel sorry for him, but he is really quite disruptive to this board. How sad!
I sincerely hope the Delt management doesn't sell out at 4-5p, this is not a one trick pony and with patience this share could end up in the 10-20p range.
The current trading range is weird, but no complaints, happy to keep adding and I guess the majority left will eventually be serious holders. Still no idea why anybody would sell at this level.

Both, I guess every trade has a buy and sell side "-)
As far as I know, assigning the buy or sell label depends on where the trade is vs mid point of the price spread. For UT it is an auction so presumably the buyer and seller are exactly matched and the buy or sell labels probably have no meaning, right?

Good luck Richdam, regardless!

Richdam, you may well be right, but I still feel this share is trading almost randomly pending concrete news (unless insider info has been leaked today! TBC!!). Hugely undervalued in my books.
What's your basis for saying many hold in ISAs and IHT portfolios? Anecdotal or based in real data? Not a trick question, I am genuinely interested!

Agree Noel, this is a chart thing, not based on fundamentals. Real news would mess the chart predictions up though:-)

Noel, thanks for sharing. It's probably helpful at some level, but the share is really trading on nothing right now, in my view.
I have from reliable sources that the government is desperately working on improving energy security for UK plc having burnt our fingers over the last years. The NSTA initiatives are not random. With net zero in the background, rest assured a lot if this is not widely advertised to the general public. Will all help DELT though. DELT is sitting on real assets and with great partners good things will happen!

BadA, news could come this week or it could be several weeks or months. When it comes, it will be newsworthy in my view and the share will pop.

Noel, between random insults and garbage being consistently and frequently produced every day, Poopdoggy had to be lucky!!
On a more serious note, I agree, we need real news, which they are working on and cannot disclose much about as it would be insider information. It's trading on nothing right now and it also means nothing, despite what Poopdoggy keeps saying. Once it moves up based on real news, it may move very very quickly and those daytrading and shorting will burn their fingers. I'm fine with buying at 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5 pence etc; the more at lower levels the better, obviously. I'm not selling anything until we have had several trances if concrete news. That may well be in 1 year or later, but at that point we are talking several multiples of the current price.

Bubble, I have not seen the articles (please share link, if I am off track...).
Floating gas terminals are typically for import of seaborne liquified natural gas (LNG), where the unit will receive and regassify the liquid natural gas into the original gaseous state; then injected into the natural gas grid, so it can be delivered to consumers.
It's really for energy security, so you can buy and import gas from the wider global market; and it's quicker to setup floating terminals vs building a land based import terminal. Everything else being equal, it is obviously more efficient (and more secure) to get gas from the North Sea directly.
Deltic should benefit from a clear desire from the government's side for UK to be more self-sufficient. Behind the scenes, I am sure they are all over any company with prospects of delivering more gas from the North Sea!! That includes DELT.

Losing their nerves...
Wish one could edit!!

BadA, I agree wrt Capricorn and price. For the better and undervalued. Topped up again this AM. Worth it. Risk/reward is excellent.
No idea who would want to sell at this level. If you look at the trades and the fact that no anchor investors are selling, it has to be small fringe investors like us, but only the ones losing their nervous!! :-)
Patience, it WILL come good!

Sorry Exploration, on this occasion we have to disagree.
I cannot see One Dyas and Shell proceeding without a reasonable prospect of getting more out than they put in. It is of course entirely possible we have a no-go, although for me this is highly unlikely at this point. With seismic data, exploration data etc, we are not shooting in the dark. Otherwise, everybody would just skip all the prep work and go straight to drilling randomly and hope for the best.

Noel, I may need to spend a bit more time on getting to the bottom of this, but as I recall, the 6p value/share is when the field is "unrisked". We still have appraisal drilling to be done, so I think we are not quite there yet (although at a glance I could not find the exact definition of "unrisked"). What would someone pay for our share of Pensacola right now? I don't really know, but I guess insights from the post exploration drill analysis would be rather important. Pure guess: maybe 3p/share?! So rather than selling at a big discount right now, I would personally trade a proportion of our share 30% share, say 10%, for someone to fund the next steps at both Pensacola and Selene, which in round numbers would be worth 37million to them once unrisked, leaving us with a 20% share of the total project value once unrisked, so around 4p/share. At that time Delt could pay a special of 3p/share and retain around 18 million for further investment, shortly followed by a fully funded and then unrisked Selene worth 11.6p/share! (based on fairly conservative gas prices). Another big special then and money in the bank to recycle into other projects.
So conceptually I agree with you, it's just a time issue. The upside is huge, subject to the fields being a good as they seem to be based on analysis to date. The current share price is hugely undervalued, even with some fairly hefty discounts to cater for risks.

Cannot edit...
Of course they are not issuing an RNS with NOTHING to say.