RE: What are the chances25 Feb 2023 15:58
Exploration,
It is good to consider all risks, including the risk of DELT defaulting the JOA with Shell. Just like you consider the risk of more windfall taxes, revocation of licences, etc. However the deafult issue belongs in my basket called "very low probability = unlikely to happen", albeit the theoretical outcome could be fatal for the business" . First of all you don't know what is in the JOA; Secondly, you are making an assumption DELT cannot convert/sell off those liabilities or raise the cash (either which they surely are working on right now); Thirdly, any arbitrator or court in England would give consideration to the value within the venture vs the default amount and the fact that this is a contract between unequal partners. Plenty of legal nuances to this. Finally, and probably most importantly, do you really think Shell would pull this trick and destroy their name as a reasonable busines partner in the market, plus destroy the Selene venture? I hold both shares, I really don't think this would happen.
The real risk is the field not being commercially viable. That risk is now lower than before the drill, but clearly there is still a risk. Even if the first field is not viable, we still have potential upside from Selene etc. At this price, we are talking close to a free option in my view, so hanging on to what I have and actively adding. I really don't know why anybody would sell at this level. Day trader circus, possibly. This is not something the management team can control, it is a free market. They could improve their comms though. As said before, if the risk is too high for you, just sell and move on. It really is that simple.