Member Info for driftking27

My dad ( chief inspect ) once says to me HMRC are after the big boys in City, not me.

HMRC have to do something about tax evasion, but will it happen nope

I pointed this trend out back in Gebruary.

TRENDS have changed massively with Gen Z & Gen X.

I’m a millennium

Disc is currently sitting around 4.84% to NAV of 288p

Iv been here since 2009/10 bought 1200 at 760p then that Sharesplit last yr and rebase. Has it actually made any difference for younger investors????

Analysts now see iron ore prices stabilizing in the $79–85/t range in real 2025 dollars, well below previous assumptions.

“We downgrade BHP from Outperform to Market-Perform as we don’t see meaningful upside after lowering our iron ore price estimates from 2026 onwards,” analyst Bob Brackett said in a note.

Brackett acknowledged that the previous upgrade in September 2024 had captured some early momentum in iron ore prices, but said it was ultimately offset by investor concerns around BHP’s long-term copper strategy.

Bernstein expects global iron ore supply to grow by 2.2% per annum through 2030, outpacing expected demand growth of just 0.5% annually. The result, according to Bernstein, is a market that will be “well supplied over the next decade,” further pressuring margins and valuations for producers like BHP.

In addition to the BHP downgrade, Bernstein also trimmed its price target on Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) by 10% to £56 per share, while maintaining an Outperform rating. The firm cited potential offsets from Oyu Tolgoi copper growth and Simandou iron ore development, which could help balance softer iron ore pricing.

Way overdue. Thank god someone gave it go ahead.

SP will start to gain traction.

Not selling, just letting it run it’s time, Dividends over next 20yrs will pay back loses.

Had VOD since 2006… added in 2011 & 2014

When all the suitors realise all predecessors have all failed, they will not pursue BP any longer, and rightly so.

Back down we go …

It’s upto ELLIOT & Co to break BP up and separate the upstream & downstream business to built growth.

Bigger is not always better u ken!

Still at 242p since February not bad eh!

So are we on same page Pokerchips, LGEN’s dividends are not covered by earnings, it’s from loans that pay the outstanding dividend amount?

Iv used marketscreener /tradingview to look over previous yrs earnings cover.

I see predictions of

EPS 22.65p for 2025

25p for 2026

27p for 2027

Cling on

So, BUYBACKS.

If you look historically BUYBACKS don’t do anything for face value of the SP, it only reduces number of shares.

In a way it’s a SUGAR COATING to juice up the possibility of investment from new shareholders / stakeholders.

Look at BP at the minute, it’s SP has fallen after all those billions it’s reinvested back into BP over the last few decades.

You need to forget about buybacks and see what companies are actually doing to aid GROWTH.

HSBC has achieved loads with its business. Still here, have been since 2006, but I also bought into GS in 2010, and HSBC has underperformed bank sector massively, though I do know both banks operate differently..

I harp on about this every yr, but when we compare the dividend payout compared US powerhouses like JPM / BofA compared to uk banks they are lighters ahead with growth.

Coujd our banks not cut back dividends and look at growing business.

These high dividends & buybacks show a lack of strategy in growing business in giving surplus money back to us, as they don’t know what to do with cash…

2.5% is average US yield / UK yield is 4-6% with exception of HSBC with higher 6%

Buybacks have done feck all to the SP in 30yrs .. DYOR

It’s embarrassing tbh…

Shareprice Performance review

MAY 2020 to May 2025 minus dividends

Remembering CVX & XOM did not suspend there dividends in ‘20

May 2020 to May 2025

Shell 81%

XOM 155%

CVR 67.45%

BP 24%

So, if we’re going to be receiving 40.08p per quarter, then I can’t complain.

‘…Imperial is rephasing dividends to be paid in four equal instalments. On an underlying basis, the interim dividend increased by 4.5% to 80.16 per share. £620mn of shares were repurchased in the period’.

As for share buybacks. PLEASE. ..

This is a show of lack of direction.

IMB need to start realising that there vape business is not growing as fast now as it once were due to governmental changes regarding this business.

Like beverage business being going through a change regarding GEN Z not consuming alcohol like Millennials/ Gen Y do.

Look at BP throwing billions at sharebacks for decades to sugar cost its ailing growth which has failed for decades.

Don’t be fooled by share buybacks guys! Please

The biggest drawback on acquiring BP…. BP has $70-something billion (HORIZON disaster)in debt.

That seems like a lot to take on. Shell could take it on, but am not so sure as all big 3 are all at new GROWTH strategies and HESS deal between XOM & Hess is still going on.

Reduce the dividend to 3%, it’s always been a high dividend stock curtailing growth in my view compared to most others.

2006 -2025 growth data. This is where we currently stand.

SHELL not great neither since May 2006

BP -59%

CVX 126%

XOM 71%

SHELL -2.5%

You need to keep up, the CEO has resigned. It’s on the headlines and Earnings call

Go have a Good Read please.

The plus, the dividend for first half has been raised 79% to 80.16p

My view is the AVI sp goes lower during the next quarter or so after the completion, it will take time to regain momentum.

remember DLG was a distressed business, so I believe it will curtail growth for awhile, though I’m a buyer when we are given our AVI share allocation. Be doubling my holding to 3500.

So, this might actually propel AVI sp.

It’s actually anyone’s guess where AVI sp goes, but I’m looking forward to being part of AVI

Would like to see how many can post a reply whom is HOLDING / SELLING this on a run NORTH…

I’m thinking still of holding, save on the commision on selling and rebuying AVI…

I’m a HOLDER

Nowt chance from XOM / SHELL / CVX / CNOC

Why would they want to destroy the growth plans of their own supermajors

XOM has a big growth plan after acquiring PNR for $60bn in 2023

CVX close to dealing their HESS deal $57bn this yr.

TOTAL

BP has been in doldrums with growth for last couple decades, we’re back at 97-98 levels here.

Further, why would supermajor a want to take a company no previous CEO has been able to change in years for, but through buybacks at it to desguise the disaster it is.

BP has got $60bn of debt from the Horizon disaster built into sp, possibly that’s why?

CVX outweights Bp over period I have invested from 2006 versus those above

+159%

Bp

- 58%

OXY I bought 2019

-37%

TOTAL bought 2019

+3.2%

Anything is better than BPs cash cow .

BHP & RIO are better bet in commodities my broker even says wasn’t half wrong

Bought both in 2011

I don’t throw money, I invest. Iv performed better with XOM, CVX OXY to be fair than BP over time from 2006!

BP is beyond fixable in my view.

Why would XOM even consider, maybe to buy parts, but in Norway is XOM not TOTAL buying BP.