Member Info for DRB83

Ncyt have already told us that they expect £25m revenue and £4.5m EBITDA loss so not following your numbers. Also, the £10m of R&D spend is opex not capex.

Whilst the SP is important the main aspect I focus on is the fundamentals. A loss in the dispute takes about £40m cash off us and I suspect will damage our reputation going forwards which may take years to repair. A win puts about £80m extra cash into our coffers which can only be a super positive for any company especially a £78m mcap one. However, I firmly believe we won't outright lose or win and instead a settlement will be agreed somewhere in the middle but more to the ncyt side.

Things have changed for me with ncyt recently. I used to believe the fundamentals were extraordinary here what with £100m cash, world's best R&D and a superb bioinformatics division but it goes to show that if you have the wrong people steering the ship then it doesn't really matter what your cargo is.

Yes, they chose the wrong guy because they themselves are the wrong guys. At least a few of them. DA, JM and JW need ousting imo. Fresh start, £100m in the bank, go for it.

The covid exit strategy should have been in motion 2021 H2 when they saw the declining revenues. We should have already had non covid products on the shelves 6 months ago now benefiting from an established global distribution channel. We are 12/15 months behind the curve. We held onto Covid too long. I recall GM saying in the months before he left that 100% focus was on covid. That was the wrong call. Once he handed in his notice things stagnated a bit like now Boris is caretaker PM. Then it took 3 months for DA to settle in. Then we are told we'll start developing our non covid portfolio but we'll not see any revenue until at least 12 months down the line. Before you know it we are nearly a year an half off the pace.

Ncyt may be a first responder but we're also the last one out of the room which in the end eats into any gains you made by being first in. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but these guys are supposed to have their finger on the pulse and the signs were there months ago.

If he is ratified then what would does a CEO have to do to not get ratified.

Even if you discount his first 100 days as a settling in period, he has still overseen a SP reduction from £3.50 to £1.10 in 6 months. Fair enough, that is only the SP you say. What about the fundamentals? Well revenue says it all. If my math doesn't fail me, we generated £0.5m sales from non-covid products in Q2. £500k in 3 months. That is a huge stride backwards in my book. Not what we're paying DA for. What about cash? He started with £100m, still has £100m. To be honest, it's the only thing propping up the SP at the minute and I'm not sure I want DA to spend it. He hasn't shown me anything in his 9 months that says he'll spend it wisely.

I was one of the lth's that gave DA the benefit of the doubt at the very beginning, I even followed him in @ £2.30 believing he wouldn't throw his own money away. A month later he sends out a profit warning. Lol. There's no denying I called it wrong with DA from the very start.

I used to think not ratifying him would delay our progress further and ultimately be a step back fundamentally and for the SP, but with a SP of £1.10 I don't think it matters anymore. I actually think the SP would react favourably to the news.

Sorry guys, just a bit of frustration coming out. I hope someone at ncyt does pass these messages on to him.

First green weekly candle since this demise started. I hope it's the bottom because I'm all spent up.

What are holders expecting from the H1 update. I recall downloads being down in May but that was due to one particular show being off air for a week. June will hopefully be another step up of 130m+ downloads. I think if we can beat the $20m revenue from Q1 in q2 then we'll be ok. Looking for $75m+ contracted revenue for 2022.

Cash. Looking for $20m x 23% = $4.6m less $3m admin expenses= $1.6m net cash inflow. Opened with $3.3m so end with call it $5m.

Any thoughts?

Can't remember the last time we turned a 30p red day or worse into a blue day. I'm betting on sentiment coming back on the run up to Half Year heads up.

Not sure about the tax reduction comment. Losing £55k in an investment just to reduce your tax bill by £25k doesn't seem so savvy.

Maybe the buys were genuine and they got it completely wrong along with the levels of their own abilities.

They told us over 12 months ago that covid revenue would start dropping significantly. Well, initially that isn't a huge problem because we have 12 months and £100m to start bridging the gap. 12 months later we still have £100m cash and the gap is bigger now than what they thought it could be (if they did nothing).

Has the dispute shackle really been that heavy to lift or is this bod just not cut out for it?

Byp, what are you talking about. If you want me to engage then just talk to ME. Don't talk to Porky through me as it really won't make any sense to me.

Morals? Consistent? Mmm negative when short, flips on its head when long.

I suppose I should take it as a compliment that the only digs you can aim at me relate to what has been said by Porky. 2 completely different people but it doesn't bother me that you can't figure that out.

Byp, I call hypocrite but you do make me chuckle. One question, do you actually believe what comes out of your mouth? Or is it all a performance. Problem with social media is we'll never know for sure. Oh well! Who really cares

JW got himself a nice buy in price. Much better than mine anyway.

No problem Bixy. As investors we have to consider both sides of the coin. Imo most likely outcome is somewhere in the middle.

At £78m mcap, it's more of when will this thing get settled rather than what will be the settlement.

Let's just have it concluded already. It's like a 100kg weight around the neck of a clownfish.

DHSC still owe us £73m of the £134m so the full £134m won't need to be paid back.

£60m will but then we will be due large tax rebates for corporate and VAT of around £20-30m say so net cash impact will be about £30-40m. Leaves us with £60-70m cash hence why the bod are apparently progressing M&A and committing to £10m annual R&D spend. That is a big increase in R&D spend. Off the top of my head, it was only £5m last year.

That's worse case. Best case is we keep our cash and get an influx of £80m making the current mcap laughable.

DHSC dispute needs resolving one way or another and quick.

Yes he's increased his holdings not reduced.

Agreed, pe is a pointless measure for a company who has just turned their first profit. PEG would be better as it includes growth projections but even PEG has it's flaws.

Price over earnings
Mcap over profit
Mcap = £150m
FY22 projected profit = $10m (£8.5m)
£150m/£8.5m = 18 rounded up.
PE = 18.

For a company in our sector that is pretty amazing. By all means, correct me if I'm wrong.

All the big boys paying way way higher than 80 pe in the market this year. Maybe you should tell the big boys they're paying too much.

80 pe is outdated btw. Today's mcap approx £150m

150/ 80 = £1.875m profit before tax.

You're basically using FY21 results. They are already 7 months out of date which is a huge chunk of time for a rapidly growing tech company.

DaddyAIM, Maybe you could offer some comparables to support your claim that 80 or even 56 is too high. If not, then it's just a baseless opinion.

There are many reasons why someone will sell shares. There are lots of reasons that have nothing to do with the business itself. Not many reasons for buying though and 99% of the time it's related directly to the business. Tobin sits at the round table and he's been buying not selling. Buying well north of here.

A bear market and a pending recession will have everything to do with it. Nothing to do directly with the business no matter what you are trying to imply.

I was referring to the half year report. Last year it was issued on 20 July. I believe that carries a blackout period but not 100%. Maybe someone can clarify.

Trading updates are sporadic and don't come with a blackout period as far as I am aware. Annuals and bi annuals on the other hand do.