Member Info for DRB83

BluJay is a £50m company is it not. Not exactly premier League.

I think we need to get into the knucks and cranny of our new leader.

We never put 2 & 2 together about Bill's "holiday"

To give you a completely unbiased opinion. Yes there is obviously a chance for a company who has £100m in the bank to reach the dizzy heights of a £210m mcap. As always, to put a time frame on it is very difficult but if the bod start to sort things out then 2023 would probably be the earliest we see £3 imo. Several things combined can ignite a rerate:

DHSC dispute resolution (most likely not this year)
Monkey Pox CE marked assay and contracts
At home saliva LFT UK approval and contract
At Home LFT EU contract or at least visibility of growing sales
BIO start buying more shares
Completion of some value adding M&A
Continued conversion of our RUO assay portfolio to commercialise the best ones
At some point we are sure to get a FY23 forecast which we can only hope will show growth Vs FY22.
More director buys, but significant ones
Contracts, contracts and more contracts, non covid would be great but I'll take any right now.

Any of the above should help the SP build upwards momentum.

Unfortunately, we are on AIM and predominantly owned by retail investors who like to see at least double digit growth yoy otherwise they go elsewhere. Ncyt actually has very strong potential imo but unfortunately the bod have been Uber slow in transitioning away from covid and really poor in the S&M department. Have they been reluctant in dropping prices and therefore ended up with less market share. Very poor leadership if that is the case. I personally would have much preferred 20% margin on £100m sales than 40% on £25m sales.

Anyhow, imo FY22 will be a bottoming year following 3 downward revisions and currently with market expectations of £9m revenue in 6 months, surely things will only get better from here. £10m R&D annual investment. Sounds good Vs last year's £5m. That figure hasn't just been pulled out of fresh air. They'll hopefully have a plan on what they are doing with it. That plan is already underway and as things stand the market hasn't priced any growth into the current SP, quite the opposite actually.

Make your call. If you see growth, buy. If you're not convinced, watch. If you see only downside in everything ncyt do then sell and maybe come back later. Don't be like PI100, byp and couple others who just linger like a bad smell repeating the same negatives hour after hour. Jeez chill already.

Yes byp, I would like to think that is the reason but then why specify 2022 and more specifically November 2022. They wouldn't have known or even guessed that all would be revealed by then so why not just say 'it has been postponed pending the outcome of the disput'. No one here knows. One day we may have enough information to piece it altogether. But we are just the owners of the business.

It appears to be in a zero or very low interest account. According to the financial statements for 2021 we earnt diddly finance income. We had £100m in the bank for all of 2021.

That's my understanding. 2nd tranche probably already paid with third in November. Not sure why it was delayed from 2021 to be honest. May be interesting to know why but who are we, we only own the business.

Well that puts 1 of the potential positives back in its box. Still, director buying is never a bad thing.

That could be the case and makes sense.

But then we're at the whim of the facility holder. Will they want to liquidate the shares or keep them for a while. Time will tell.

Let's remember folks that the market can only price based on what is known. Anything unknown is usually either well overpriced or hugely underpriced. In Ncyt's case the markets knows diddly and therefore has and will massively underprice the fundamentals of the company.

If ncyt did lose but clearly explained in the RNS that the next impact to cash will only be £40-50m which will be spread over say 3 years and not the full £135m that has been claimed then I suspect the SP may actually rise from this level.

If ncyt post an RNS that states. "We lost, oh well" then yes agreed the SP would likely drop significantly.

The news in both scenarios is the same but the way ncyt update the market will decide the SP action imo. With a EV of MINUS £24m then yes I believe the worse case is already priced in.

Part of the bods job is to also keep the SP relatively close to the fundamentals of the business. The fact that DA has allowed our SP to drop to significantly less than cash thereby valuing all our non cash assets as worthless is very embarrassing for him and the bod.

I believe we are waiting on SL coming back to us with an explanation of where that 6-7% of shares went. The volume around the time they said they sold doesn't stack up so 2 questions for me:

1. How did you sell them, what platform (dark pool?)
2. Who bought them and where is the TR1 if known.

Good results yes but exc cash they are valued at near 3x more than ncyt. When you include cash Ncyt's NAV £183m is 3x that of Yourgene £63m yet mcap is less than 2x.

It's not hard to see the potential rerate here when the bod finally sort out the future outlook. This is certainly a bottom drawer investment or a traders plaything.

Kaeren, where does it say the 2nd tranche wasn't paid? I may have missed something but reading the annual report the 2nd and 3rd tranches were due to be paid in 2022. The 4rd being due in November.

No director buys for a week now.

No Uber large trades after hours. In fact no after hours trades at all.

Has the tide turned. Let's hope so.

PI100, John laid it out for you. Mcap £78m Vs cash in bank £100m. It's facts not ramping. Yes the board has been ultra slow to transition away from covid and yes we can only hope the bod can use the £100m cash wisely. What we know is that in 9 months DA hasn't spent a penny but he hasn't wasted a penny either.

You can't really call someone out for ramping when the mcap is 30% less than CAB. John also raised the DHSC issue in his reasoning so yet again your getting really confused with what a ramper is and why they do it. Give you a clue.

Tides turning now. SP will catapult off this 107 support. £2 by end of week. Get in while you can.

See the difference. Probably not.

Some fair points Steve. 1 thing to note that we have already touched on here is that BBG has 45,000,000 share options expiring in 13 months at an average exercise price of 0.5p, so £225k worth. I'm guessing BBG won't have that kind of money lying around so why buy shares today at 0.6-0.7p when you can be 45m derisked shares at 0.5p in just 13 months time.

I'd be saving every penny because come Aug23 I'm hoping these shares are 3p+. If so, BBG becomes an overnight millionaire. Happy days for all of us.

Data states that Dribbles is on his 70th LSE account of the year and comes with a highly toxic warning label. Follow the data. Lol

Who's responsible for hiring/firing said directors and how long has DA been here. He could probably play a big part in ousting JW who is stealing a living imo. Yet here we are.

Yep, we're definitely due one

Arborman,

That is all very small so they put it in with the UK revenue.

We need to hear some positive news about renewals and new deals. Sooner the better please SL. Need to bridge the gap left by Morbid. AIM is too fickle to tolerate reduced growth nevermind falling figures.

I don't think they've done selling yet. When they have, given the fundamentals we have here then I am expecting a rather large rerate. Interesting that Tobin hasn't bought in a while. It must be a good 24 hours. Recon we'll hear something tomorrow.