Member Info for DRB83

Also, the average quarterly downloads for q2 was 124m.

April 132m
May 133m
So June must have been 107m.

That's mostly due to the Morbid loss I would think.

At a worse case,.if we maintain 107m for Q3 and manage to hold an eCPM of $50 then our Q3 revenue should be around $16m

Q1 = $20m
Q2 = $21m
Q3 = $16m
Q4 = needs to be $26m to hit forecast

June's 107m downloads wouldn't have included the new shows we have recently signed up so hopefully they'll help get us back into the 115m+ zone.

The benefit for us is that we don't have to have as many downloads as our competitors because we have a lean eCPM of $50+.

Q3 will be a challenge but I'm interested to see what SL and BC can do to overcome it.

Not according to the H1 accounts.

UK $2m
US $39m

95% comes from the US.

I think they bought the 1.5m for £4.50

Just realised how big a deal the loss of Morbid is. A top 5 US podcast. Now gone to Wondery. Hence they leapfrog us in the table. Barstools.

I don't quite understand how in May we supposedly had 133m monthly downloads yet according to the table we had 21m weekly downloads. So I get that to be about 95m per month. Yes we'll have a few million from the UK and rest of the world but not 38m so what am I missing.

I see the 10k seller is still with us.

Volume wasn't big enough on the 19th July to trade 908k in one day. That doesn't stack up. Let's see if the stupidly big transactions cease now. Yesterday there were several extremely large trades happened after hours. That was the 20th. Still not convinced we've heard the last of this. Good to know who it is and why. They're not selling because of the fundamentals which is good. If they didn't have to they wouldn't have sold as that is a huge loss they have made. Let's hope the bod get an answer soon.

Makes them feel better about themselves I guess

Are these after hours trades real or just some kind of adjustment? Where have they all come from. There's probably more shares been traded after hours than during the day. It's bizarre. Always unknown so very difficult to gauge what they actually mean. Will we open up? Down? Or flat? Who knows?

That's great. Thanks Dan

Overall a great set of results. Top points from me:

Morbid may have gone but at least 2 new artists signed that will help replace the lost downloads. 1 of which will go straight into our top 10 shows.

Advertising spend will drop 20% in 2022 whilst Podcasting is set to grow 15%. Podcasting is one of the most efficient ways for advertising as our creators are influences and consumers listen to influencers more than simple radio or TV ads. If brands have to cut back their advertising spend then they will surely what to maximise their reduced budgets and aim to squeeze every drop of efficiency out of them, up step no.3 podcaster in the US AudioBoom.

442k share options provided to employees. 120k to Stuart and Brad meaning 322k to the majority of the remaining 47. That is a huge incentive to each and every staff member. The SP has to be well over £15.55 for this to be truly beneficial to everyone. All employees, directors and shareholders on the same team. Nice.

3 more key contracts to renew. 1 already has terms signed and 2 in negotiations. Once these are sorted the advertisement slots can be sold in advance meaning a revision to the $68m we already have contracted. As with Morbid, these renewals won't be included in the $83m FY forecast so all being well we'll be well on our way to £90m+ by the next update.

I'm sure SL said Boom are the only profitable podcaster out there. Wow.

Showcase is a 25%+ op margin business and easy scalable across the globe. SL looking for partners who can help create and sell our inventory on a global scale. New Zealand is an example. A growing cash balance will help speed up the required development here.

Downloads will reduce from May's 133m but it will be temporary imo. The $57 per 1000 downloads may also reduce but again temporary. Conclusion is that it is likely the current market expectations will be exceeded come year end and £7 per share will look rediculously cheap.

When does the presentation usually get added to the website? I haven't seen it yet and was hoping it would have been today?

I am not a trader MasterRSI but interested.

Why would someone put a buy order in £1 more than the SP?
Secondly, if someone would have seen it, could they have placed a sell order for say 5000 shares at 796p and would the teade have gone through or am I missing something?
Lastly, the fact that there were no sell orders at all on the book during the closing auction is a good thing? Ive seen it the past couple of days that buying around £7 far exceeds selling so hopefully a bottom has been hit.

We had some nice buys on the run up to the closing auction but we really could do with bouncing off £7 soon. If buys dry up then the MM's will drop this quick. It seems to take 10000 shares to move it up a tick but only 1000 to move it down. What's your thoughts?

I believe the market expectations currently are:

Revenue $83m
op margin 21% = $17.5m
Admin costs $13m
Adj op profit $4.5m
Cash - c$8-9m
PE c29
If we get some more key renewals over the line this summer then we could be looking at $100m revenue.

Revenue $100m
op margin 21% = $21m
Admin costs $13m
Adj op profit $8m
Cash - c$11-12m
PE c16

Either way it's considerably undervalued at £7 imo. Industry growing
Boom market share growing.
Yes the macro environment will impact us but as SL says, without the macro bad news we would have smashed our targets this year, with the macro bad news we are confident we will hit the targets.

Macro won't last for years and only time will tell just how much the big brands hold back.

Clearly the majority of disgruntled PI's didn't vote, leaving a majority of the votes being cast by II's, directors and their friends and families. If it was easier to vote then for sure those pay rises wouldn't have gone through. The bod know this.

Not quite the £50k but £14k is no small amount. Directors buying whilst a 10ker sells. A lot of buys around £7 though. Hopefully we'll bounce a little from here tomorrow.

Tobin up next to claim that £50k buy?

Expect more director buys today in the 7's.

Macro says down
Fundamentals say up
Macro will probably win in the short term but the stronger the fundamentals the bigger the rebound imo.

Great. I'll pick it up in the recording.

DaddyAIM, it's important to have a balanced view so as you have focused on the negatives let's see if we can counter with some positives.

1. You conveniently missed the last part of the paragraph from your extract so I'll add it here:

"I expect this softening in demand to be set against a backdrop of continued
overall revenue growth for the industry. The podcast industry and our business model are robust, we are well positioned
to continue our growth story, and we are confident in achieving our goals for 2022."

Hence no current revision to the FY forecast.

2. $2.3m share based payments. These are options given to the management team and employees with an exercise price of £15.55. Should the employees and company meet their targets then they have to pay £15.55 for the shares. That's a 83% premium on today's sp. Now you would only exercise those options if the SP was at least higher than £15.55. So when the SP gets back above £17/18 then Boom will eventually benefit from £6.9m of proceeds and the employees will get a good deal on the shares. Everyone wins. If they don't meet the objectives they eventually expire and the $2.3m is credited back to the P&L.

3. View - whilst the SP may continue its downward trend, don't kid yourself that it has anything to do with the fundamentals of Boom. All markets are going down and it's got everything to do with macro economics.

Additional positives include:
1. Yoy continued growth
2. $5.8m cash. Largest cash balance ever.
3. Growing industry
4. Renewals and expansion of contracts. More to come.
5. Showcase, growing rapidly and contributing 29% op margin
6. Up to 3rd in the rankings
7. 3 new Studio productions coming soon that give 30%+ op margins.
8. May broke the record for downloads with 133m.

Not to shabby that update really.

Thanks B, I was missing the bit where you share it over X number of years. There's clearly not enough information available to us to accurately work it out.

Based on the options issued in May the relative periods were FY22, FY23 and FY24 so 3 years. Still can't work it out so going to leave it there.