Member Info for DRB83

Haha, think you have that wrong. DHSC instigated the dispute and instigated the court process, not ncyt.

Not sure tbh chair. All companies are required to have a base level of insurance but it will all depend on their individual policy. The bod haven't mentioned it once so probably best to assume this claim isn't covered.

The onus should be on the DHSC to prove we are liable and responsible. Given they kept ordering and using our products I can't see how the DHSC will be successful. Our products I believe we're not only tried and tested by the DHSC but also approved for commercial sale. Any errors should have been identified by the gov well before £135m orders. Did it really take them 3 months of constant usage to decide "I'm not actually happy with these, I want my money back".

Some like PI100 think it's a guaranteed loss but I think it favours us in a court setting. Just my opinion

Agreed Gazman

Ncyt have revealed absolutely nothing on the dispute for over 12 months. Unless you've been following the company you see the £135m claim and think a loss will wind the business up. Thanks ncyt.

B2, not sure either on the legal costs but I'm sure at the side of figures like £135m and £80m they'll be pretty insignificant.

Invoices Claimed against = £135m
Invoices unpaid by DHSC = £73m
Cash therefore required to settle claim in full if required = £62m

Why do investors keep treating the claim like it will wipe the bank balance? It's pretty clear.

On top of that. If we have to credit £135m of invoices then our revised profit from FY20/21 will be reduced accordingly meaning a very significant corporate tax rebate and a significant VAT rebate.

Net effect, a complete loss in the dispute reduces our cash by £30-40m. We have £100m. Mcap is currently £80m.

Been following Spoons for a while, mainly for educational reasons. The liquidity and leverage are the biggest risks for me. Net cash outflow expected this FY despite the benefit of pent up demand and successful hedging of inflation increases. I believe the Government loan of £100m is due back in the next FY. Macro economics look dire at the moment so not expecting a profit to be turned anytime soon especially when inflation does eventually hit the bottom line.

Spoons have plenty of assets to liquify if the loan covenants are at risk of being breached but with property prices set to fall they may have to sell more than they would like.

Interestingly Spoons made the decision to convert some lease holds into freeholds which I expect would have resulted in a large cash outlay. Is that brave or stupid or has Tim got his finger on the pulse? Time will tell. I will sit and watch.

Fenix mcap is £60m Vs UFO at £30m

In comparison Fenix have a Han**** and that's it. Actually, our Han**** has the potential to be 3 times bigger than Iron Ridge.

Add on Brockman, Vivash, EH, Munni Munni and the 3 Mexico projects and you can easily start to see where we could get to.

It's very important that we don't give any of this Iron Ore away. I would much prefer to take a £30m loan at a 50% interest rate or an offtake agreement of 450k tonnes at $80 per tonne.

It won't take long for the bank balance to build up allowing us to pay back the loan and the 450k offtake agreement would be settled by end of FY23.

In each scenario we get to keep 100% of Han**** which would now become the cash cow required to fund the other projects

I like how Fenix are aquiring their supply chain. If IOCA is planning on being around for tens of years then this could be an option. Acquire the contractors driving down our $60 per tonne increasing our margin.

If Brockman is 200mt then work it 10 times harder than Han****. We don't need to JV it. Just aquire more diggers and trucks over time.

In 5 years we could be selling 15mt of iron ore per year. I'll let you do the maths.

Careful HarChris, I spotted a bit of ramping in that last post. Jest. I'm done with the thread too. I think the relevant points have been made. GLA.

Thanks HarChris, I couldn't be bothered to provide the evidence but definitely knew byp was a trader. Which is fine as long as he is honest in his narrative which is very questionable. Others on here should have a big black cross at the side of byp.

You may not now but you have in the past. Trade away. Just don't tarnish everyone on here who says something positive about their investment as a ramper.

It reminds me of the recent Amber Heard case where she was representing the ME2 movement against domestic abuse all whilst committing domestic abuse herself and pointing the finger at others. Perfect analogy really.

During that 18 month period you refer to there was definitely 1 period where you miraculously turned positive overnight and it lasted a good few weeks. I remember it quite well as it came shortly after you admitted to trading this share.

How can anyone trust someone who on one hand apparently holds shares here in the hope that one day the SP rises and then on the other hand says they are 100% negative about this stock to protect others from buying such a bad stock. Talk about sending out mixed messages.

You're protecting no one byp. You have created this crusade for yourself to maybe give yourself some worth in this world. Unfortunately for you, you're the only one here that believes it. Good luck with your trading.

Isn't 2/3 of the shareholder base on the Euronext. So 33% of holders on LSE. I don't know the exact split but it's likely that a big chunk of those 33% are II's, HNW individuals, traders or highly experienced PI's. Let's say half leaving us with 16% of PI's with low to medium amounts of experience. Of this I am one. Most of those PI's will respect that investing on AIM is not a game and that this is real hard earned money we are risking. I'd like to think 9 in 10 of us would do our research including reviewing past and recent rns's, company website, industry journals, news articles, investor webinars, yes chat forums etc. That leaves the 1 in 10 who may be susceptible to following in the rampers or derampers for that matter. So that's 1.6% of shareholders that may be blindly influenced by the ramp/deramp brigade. Now, not all of those 1.6% will be on the LSE chat forum. So now we're less than 1%.

Supposing a few weeks of hard ramping managed to entice all of the 1% in all at the same time (which it wouldn't), would it really have a significant effect on the SP.

I think you might be barking up the wrong tree byp.

Byp, you should consider changing your name to little white knight. Save us all from the rampers.

Time well spent there byp, 9 months worth of posts scrolled through. I always like to consider the context surrounding a post though. Back in October there was a lot of talk around Ncyt being a £2.5bn company. I was merely providing the calculation to determine what level of non covid revenue would be required to justify a £2.5bn company. There was no mention of a time limit.

My comment regarding not being a million miles away goes to show how DA and the gang have significantly let us investors down. To think I thought that target was achievable I was probably factoring in a 5 year timeline. DA says £100m. That is the size of disappointment DA has provided. Pretty sure most of us were taken back by the £100m 5 year target when it was announced. I mean, come on!!

1. £100m war chest
2. In an industry that should have been preparing for the next pandemic meaning POC testing demand on the up
3. Global reach of our distribution arm
4. Mygo/q machines being embedded in hundreds of labs worldwide.
5. 500+ test catelogue ready to be CE marked and converted to be used on mygo/Q's
6. Global first responder Bioinformatics team
7. World class R&D department
8. Probably 70+ sales reps at our peak.
9. Abilities to cover both PCR, rapid PCR and LFT and soon to be 'at home' testing
10. Talks of a 10 min PCR test
11. Talks of M&A
12. New CEO on board with what appeared to be a solid history in S&M (a new CEO can often create a buzz and a revival of a fledgling company
13. Back in October, there would have been lots of hope that the dreaded dispute would be wrapped up and put to bed. Certainly would have been factored into a 5 year plan.
14. In bed with UNICEF/WHO and still winning contracts with the NHS
15. Did I mention £100m in cash to make something happen.

When you factor all of this into a 5 year plan based on where we were then I believe £475m revenue would have been a challenging but achievable target. I wasn't to know that DA wasn't the right man for the job and that time would just pass us by with nothing to show for it. Certainly not a baseless ramp as you imply as I always try to give context and meaning behind my estimates and predictions so people have enough information to correct me if I'm wrong.

Apologies all for the lengthy post and thanks byp for pulling up the past as it shows quite clearly how poor DA and the bod have been imo.

Here you go again byp. This self proclaimed crusade you're on to call out rampers has totally consumed you. Every other sentence references rampers or ramping. You've become what I have diagnosed as ramper blind where you can no longer identify a genuine long term holder being positive about a company in which they have thousands of pounds invested. To you, everyone is ramping and as a result you have inadvertently made your knight in shining armour crusade meaningless and insignificant. But I'm sure you won't take any note of any of this and just carry on regardless. I await your next ramper post which I am sure will be along any moment.

Agreed BH, hopefully leaning the cost base whilst increasing sales will be the strategy. We have 600+ non covid tests yet sold £500k in 3 months. Not acceptable considering we've had £100m in the bank for 18 months.

The day to day running costs such as wages, materials, expenses, consumables will be opex. Purchase of machinery and other equipment will be capex. The assets of R&D will be mainly the machinery and the patents of products.

Agree yes that at these low levels of revenue the op margin gets eaten up pretty quickly by the admin expenses leaving little left for net profit. Hence the need now to significantly cut back on admin expenses. Good to see that they are increasing R&D expenditure though. Hopefully they won't shrink the S&D budget too much. We need to be able to sell the products we develop after all.

You would think wouldn't you Wilson given that we have just written off another £6.5m of stock. Lol. What's that, only 650k tests or so. Who knows why we weren't able to shift them in the middle of a pandemic.

To put it into perspective, we have thrown more covid stock than we have sold so far this year and we're 6 months in.

Covid revenue £13m
Op margin of 70% means our materials costs were 30% so £3.9m of stock sold. £6.5m of stock tossed.

Give em a payrise.

This from 1st June RNS:

Ongoing work
Planned activities from the IOCA development team during the September quarter include:
• Planned geotechnical ground assessment of access road and intersection
• Progress MRWA intersection design
• Water bore drilling
• Finalise crushing & screening plant flowsheet design and plant selection
• Finalise CAPEX and OPEX inputs, including pricing for intersection, haul road, mining, haulage
and site establishment
• Secure offtake agreement and funding for early works
• Further resource drilling
• Upgrade JORC Resource, including maiden measured and/or indicated resources to support a
maiden mining reserves

I take September quarter being July to Sept. Lots to look forward to in the next 9-10 weeks. I notice no mention of the mining license being granted so I believe expectations are for Dec22 at the earliest. Get all the other ducks in a row and ready to go so we can hit the ground running as soon as the license lands.

I agree Smiller, it makes sense to get a provisional agreement in place and then once the mining license is granted the contract becomes binding.

If BBG and the team can deliver that list in the next 10 weeks then the SP should go parabolic. Just my excited opinion of course.

May be a silly question but do we have to have an approved mining license before we can agree any offtakes?

Maybe Monty but we can only go on what the chaps at the round table are telling us, and that's trending down after down after down. Hopefully FY23 will be our first year of growth since FY20. 12 months ago I would have said no problem achieving that goal but with only £0.5m of non covid sales in the last 3 months it is now going to be a considerable challenge.