Member Info for DRB83

I think Rod has 75m BluJay shares he can sell and reinvest in UFO.

Looking to firm up funding for early access works for Han**** by end of next month. I'm certainly hoping that consists of a offtake agreement or loan or both. Certainly hope they aren't considering a raise at these prices. Over 1p fine but loan and offtake should be first choice. Who wouldn't want to lend money to UFO knowing they're only a few months from churning iron ore.

Fair point BH. The important point must be the science behind the "dry" aspect. Start with covid as maybe easiest and despite the 'covid falling off a cliff' status, covid still is our top seller, so why not start with covid. It gives us a flavour of what's to come potentially. Is it a significant USP? I'm not sure but DA said product development will be customer driven so I'm assuming customers want ambient logistics. Now they have it. At least for covid. Next up ......

Good reminder B2

The UK Patent Box regime is a special low corporate tax rate used to incentivise research and development by taxing revenues
from patented products differently from other revenues. Subject to a number of adjustments, the effective rate of tax on profits
derived from the sale of products subject to patents is close to 10% rather than the current UK corporation tax rate of 19% (due
to rise to 25% in 2023). The Patent Box rate can only be claimed once a patent has been granted, although the benefit can be
backdated to the time at which the patent was applied for, and so this is not reflected in the 2021 accounts.

So a 9% tax rebate on pretty much all of our revenue (let's say 90%) since October 2020. So that's around £250m in revenue ish. Even at a 30% EBITDA that's 75m profit that's currently been taxed at 19% (£14m) meaning an almost £7m tax rebate will come back to us. Very tough numbers but as the ORF1a/b gene is in pretty much most of our revenue I'd expect the credit to be pretty substantial. Something the market wouldn't have factored in. Just like the tax rebate we will receive if we lose the dispute.

Distributor in US selling for $8 per test. Seems reasonable to me.

It can't be Dribbles as his accounts get banned before reaching 20 posts. I suspect his waffle finally worked on someone.

The PCR bit was funny though.

I don't think so. Just potential for higher profits should suffice and we have plenty of that. A mixture of Macro economics, AAQUAVERSE having to sell and technical analysis is what has caused such a gulf between mcap and fundamentals. It may take a few months to get back to where we were but it's all just part of the AIM market. 620p looks like a solid support. Just have to ride out Q3.

Speaking of Han****, I see iron ore is having a run today. Up 8% to $116. Soon enough our SP will be linked heavily to that metric.

It's $1200 and looking at the information sheet it's 150 tests. So $8 per test. Maybe Ncyt should look to expand into the testing service industry rather than just supply it.

Wilson, deja vu for sure. I remember talking about the world governments building a 'early pandemic warning system' off the back of Covid. I don't think they expected to need it quite so soon. Oh dear.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/indianexpress.com/article/lifestyle/health/15-labs-across-country-to-start-testing-for-monkeypox-8053482/lite/

We know we have a small footing in India so hopefully our connections with Tata will help here.

https://www.better2know.co.uk/shop/products/home-testing-kits/monkey-pox?gclid=Cj0KCQjw0JiXBhCFARIsAOSAKqBQscqyMAcBmRcudejxiKZvABPFJBp8vYWN6qOa6n8JTw3bEQxCLboaAvbVEALw_wcB

Just come across this. Interesting and very expensive. Wonder who's test it is? Genuinely don't know

I personally am not expecting anything from the US. We got little from in terms of covid testing so I am not expecting anything from MPX. If we do, great, a bonus.

The US are currently using an orthopoxvirus test which is a non MPX specific test and also have several labs who have already developed a MPX specific test or close to. There is currently nothing to differentiate our test with what the US already have access to so unfortunately for us I suspect they will keep it in house. More than happy if Kevin can prove me wrong but based on covid I'm certainly not expecting anything.

Currently all known PCR tests for MPX require the sample from a lesion or scab. This is a problem. Scabs typically reveal themselves 2-3 days after the onset of a fever and other symptoms so basically they are one of the last symptoms of MPX. That's a lot of time wasted before an accurate test can be performed.

The FDA themselves have said that they are unaware of a MPX test that can be done using saliva or blood. I don't know if it's possible but given the trajectory of MPX cases and hospitalisations I certainly hope DA is spending some of that £10m on finding out.

If we get there first then that would be a rerate situation for the sp. There lies the potential with ncyt.

EU is the largest outbreak area in the world for MPX. I remember DA specifically saying that he intends to prioritize the EU market. Now is your chance DA.

Alarms are sounding for the early stages of a potential pandemic. Ncyt have one of only a few tests available. Ncyt have the distribution channel already established in the EU. GM nailed Covid. Let's see what DA can do with MPX.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/monkeypox-diagnostic-testing#sampling-for-diagnostic-testing

Interesting that on the UK government page regarding Monkeypox diagnostics that POC and NPT are generally advised AGAINST for the moment. Risk assessments need to be carried out to ensure the tests are done in a completely safe contained environment.

I'll be watching out for this to change as this will be where ncyt could offer the most support. At the moment the UK gov want to keep the testing all centralised. Very slow and cumbersome.

https://www.grid.news/story/science/2022/07/28/monkeypox-is-spreading-undetected-because-testing-is-a-mess-echoing-the-early-days-of-covid/

Another article highlighting the problem with MPX testing. States don't even record and share data until a National Health Emergency is declared. Well the first couple of states declared a NHE this weekend so hopefully things will be moving quickly now. We are still possibly in the containment phase which means we need to see our enemy in order to isolate it otherwise you have to quarantine large areas. Test, test, test. What's the point in having diagnostics if you don't use them.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/07/28/health/monkeypox-testing-demand/index.html

Here we go again. Governments being so slow to adopt adequate testing. Seems we didn't learn anything from covid. Well US have gone from 1 case in May to over 5000 2 months later. Not bad for a virus that has been around for a few decades and until now has only managed to infect a handful of people outside of Africa.

There's a good chance governments realise that decentralised testing is going to work much better on a virus with such a long incubation period.

A small makeshift lab with several q machines could process hundreds of tests per day. At the moment doctors aren't testing everyone they suspect and the result is people who have MPX think they don't and then go spread it.

A half hearted attempt at testing is a waste of money. It's all or nothing. Let's see if the UK wake up.

Yes Kaeren, as with covid, people walking around for days not knowing (or knowing) they are infected passing it onto loved ones, friends, strangers. The more people spreading it means more people catching it meaning even more people spreading it and so on. We know the drill. We saw what happened with covid. It may not be seen as deadly yet but given time to flourish who knows what will happen. At the moment the government seem content to let it rip. 8 billion people is a pretty huge play pit. Didn't covid mutate into a more deadlier form in the early days. 12 months in when Delta turned up.

I have nothing to lose by keeping my holding here and seeing if the world governments do indeed take more action.

A nice self LFT would be a huge positive. A 10 min PCR would be great 2. If possible. I'm sure if it is then the R&D team are working on it as we speak. £10m budget for this kind of thing. I see no reason why MPX will start to slow any time soon.

Around 18th of August for next Triton report. Would like to see an improvement on June but would be happy to just hold ground for now.

It's a fair point GB but legal costs will be a few million quid at most I suspect. These peeps have got multi millions, maybe hundreds of millions available. Why sell Boom at £6 when it was valued at £22 only a few weeks ago. The only thing that has changed fundamentally is that the advertisement industry is forecast to decline in the short term due to the war and recessions etc. We already discussed that TV and Radio will bear the brunt of the decline. Podcasting is a growing industry with more listeners every day. It should be one of the last areas to cut from your advertising budget.

The market however is uncertain so naturally the sp is affected. We don't need to wait for the Q3 trading update. The first indicator will be in the Triton reports. The last one was a 5 week report upto Jul 3rd. Next one will be 4 weeks upto 31st July. Tomorrow. Not long to wait.

Maybe Saint.

If they don't then SP stays where it is give or take.

If they do then a contract or several could be on the cards and then.....

The test is already available. Hundreds of machines already employed in the NHS. Nothing may come of it but MPX doesn't seem to be going away so as it gets worse I suspect governments are going to be under increasing pressure to do something.

We don't need a £400m contract like covid. At this point a £10m would do wonders.

For me now this is less about derisking the project and more about sticking to the timescales. I see very little if anything at all that will prevent us from mining Han****. The area has a history of mining iron ore. A large part of the infrastructure is already in place so why would it be declined.

What this is all about is when? I don't know the process but if Bill and Dan say Q1 then that's great. A lot of news has to come before the end of this quarter if Q1 is still to be the target. Exciting times ahead no doubt.

I don't even expect another placing now as the $6m should last us well into next year and any expenses for Han**** should be covered as part of the project funding. Hopefully a long term loan.

The only things I consider a risk now are:

Delays to Han****
Iron ore price dropping lower than $80
China attacking Taiwan (which can be wrapped up in the above)

Anyone else got thoughts on pros and cons.

Apologies Kaeren, didn't see your thread