Member Info for DRB83

Share4, does it matter how we get our money and how we pay our suppliers. It only matters that we do it. Not sure what relevance your challenge has.

Share4, re the £1m I was responding to the Twitter link below. Not my calcs.

According to the annual accounts the trade payables are made up of

£0.5m Trade payables
£0.5m wages
£1.7m accruals

We don't know enough about accruals to establish what they are for so putting them to one side that leaves £1m to be paid in 30 days. So actually supports the monthly charges estimate.

We seem to be good at paying our bills on time but not so good at collecting or receipts. This could be an issue when the bank balance starts reducing down to £2m. Can't ignore that the company has mentioned that a raise is possible.

2 challenging observation. First is that with monthly outgoings of £1m would you really be comfortable with less than £2m in the bank.

2nd, this assumes a very efficient credit control process where all customer receipts are collected on time in full. Hence my question regarding the trade receivables figure. We appear to have £3m in receivables but only sold £2m in the first 6 months. If we can't master the timely receipt of payments then it is touch and go whether their will be enough funds in the bank to pay the staff. Companies like to operate with more of a buffer than 6 weeks funds. Could be a loan but for sure it would be convertible which is probably just as bad.

There are no guarantees whether a raise will be done. It could go either way but the company do keep referencing one.

Seems high. What's your breakdown?

Captain, if it gets into the general population then we'll deal with that when it happens. That's how our government works isn't it.

It would be good to here from Bill how this change would effect if at all ongoing discussions on offtake agreements. Only 8 weeks until end of September quarter.

They gave us the H1 update on 7th Jul. Way earlier than any of us expected. Maybe wanted to get the last of the bad news out of the way. Let's hope so.

Unless sales are better or worse than current expectations I'm not expecting any more trading updates until Jan. I'm hopeful that with such an abysmal £9m H2 revenue forecast that we get some kind of upward guidance in Q4.

R&D will be busy in H2 so hoping we get more info on that.
Contracts could land any time or not at all.
M&A could land anytime or not at all.
Dispute could land anytime

It really is a case of being patient with this one. DA has a lot of work to do to get this back towards £7.78 in the next 28 months or so. 6 bags. He isn't going to get there with just organic revenue and without touching that £100m cash so something is going to happen at some point.

Apparently China are moving to a centralised buying system for their iron ore. One government run company buys all iron ore and then I presume sells it accordingly to the private China Steel mills. This apparently will help China negotiate better prices for the commodity.

Article here:

https://www.mining.com/web/rio-tinto-not-concerned-about-chinese-ore-buying-company-executive/

Any thoughts on how this may effect us little minions over in OZ?

There is no known blackout period for directors and Tobin hasn't bought any for 7 trading days. With how Tobin has been buying for the last few months that equates to a stop. He was happy to buy thousands in the high teens so why stop now? I'm just speculating as without news it can get boring.

I think the fact Tobin seems to have stopped buying especially down here in the 6's n 7's could mean something significant. It also might mean he's all spent up and living hand to mouth now.

Neil, dry ice is an active cold chain shipping method. Ambient is ambient. If it needs something to keep it cold then it's not ambient shipping.

Maybe the first covid test was basic and didn't need cold logistics. Subsequent covid tests (i.e Promate) were more technical and as a result required cold logistics. Now what DA is saying is that we have made the more advanced tests even better by removing the cold logistics. I'm making assumptions here trying to understand GM's ambient comments from 2 years ago.

I'm not sure how accurate this FIND list is but apparently there are 62 MPX tests that have been CE marked. We haven't so not exactly first responder material.

It would be great to get DA to clear this up. Where does he think we are in terms of MPX first responder status?

https://www.tlgenetech.cn/product/monkeypox-virus-nucleic-acid-detection-kit

This appears to be the one the UK are using as it is the only one MHRA approved. Yes it's Chinese.

Yes, seen that Exmex. Please also see https://www.finddx.org/mpx-test-directory/

The government are recommending that any labs wanting to start conducting MPX tests to use one from the Find list.

It appears there are 106 MPX tests being sold commercially. Unfortunately our Genesig MPX test does not appear to be on the list. Frustrating.

This from the 17 Feb 2020 RNS

Graham Mullis, Chief Executive Officer of Novacyt commented.
“I am very pleased to announce the launch of our COVID-19 CE-Mark test, which we believe is
the first CE-Mark approved test for clinical diagnosis of the 2019 strain of the novel coronavirus.
As with our research use only test, it can produce a result in less than two hours, with the added
efficiency of being able to transport the test at ambient temperatures eliminating the need for
cold chain shipping. It is designed to run on multiple instrument platforms commonly used by
clinical laboratories around the world, which ensures our COVID-19 test can be used by the
largest possible number of clinicians. We look forward to continuing to support clinicians in the
fight to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus during this public health emergency.”

Does anything jump out at anyone?

B2, we can only trust that DA and the team are doing everything they can to get this test out there.

We've said it many times on here. No point in being first to develop a new product if your last to let people know. It seems to me that we have proven time and time again that thanks to our Bioinformatics and R&D intelligence, creating the right products at the right time is a strength of ours. What is not a strength of ours is Sales and Marketing of those products. This is what DA needs to be focusing on imo. It's not just a case of throwing heads at it either. Tried that, it didn't work. The issue is somewhere else, whether it be pricing, training, terms & conditions, minimum orders, wrong marketing channels, I don't know but DA should and he should have already fixed them by now. If he has, he certainly hasn't assigned any value to the fix in the remaining forecast for this year (H2 sales of £9m) so it would be good to see an uplift on guidance back end of this year.

I've read several articles recently regarding MPX in the UK and not one has mentioned 'testing'. The UK are currently adopting the Vaccine and treatment approach and whilst I appreciate testing is obviously necessary it doesn't appear to be a priority for the UK. Biden mentioned the word testing directly only yesterday as part of his speech in declaring MPX as a National Health Emergency.

I believe this is why we have had a fairly mute response to our assay. Look for a change in behaviour from the gov that is more favourable to testing and we should start to see some upward pressure in the SP. Just my thoughts.

I don't know the costs or times of CE marking but with £100m in the bank our MPX assay should certainly be towards the top of our CE marking list.

As a guide:

Covid RUO test launched 31 Jan 20
Covid CE mark test launched 17 Feb 20.

Just over 2 weeks. Albeit, the Covid RUO test received a lot of demand which would have obviously pushed Ncyt's desire to get it CE marked but it does show that approval was possible in a little over 2 weeks.

If ncyt are seeing similar signs of demand then we can expect a CE marked version pretty soon. It's already been 5 weeks since the RUO and we know MPX is no Covid so clearly demand isn't their yet but now US have declared a National Health Emergency then I'm expecting more to follow suit.

I'm not sure if MPX discriminates on race so if it's in the community in the US and UK then it will be in the Middle East and South America. MPX appears for now to just tick over a lot slower than covid did.

A MPX CE version should (and I emphasise should) lead to more positive sentiment coming to us than experienced with the RUO. Imo.

The market sees no connection between ncyt and the US. Despite ncyt producing one of the first MPX assays the SP has been left ranging between 107-120 whilst our US equivalents release tests later and multibag in an instant.

US are up to now the only country that appear to be taking MPX serious. The market knows that despite the Covid opportunities and despite the reach we have in the US ncyt never managed to crack it the US.

However, I believe it is only a matter of time before UK and EU countries start to sit up and make more noise about MPX. Maybe then we'll get some positive sentiment back here. Watch this space.