Member Info for DRB83

In a huge growth sector (post covid will involve the creation and maintenance of a early pandemic warning system)
Covid unfortunately showing no signs of relenting
At home LFT awaiting approval (GM saw something major in this)
Dispute drawing to a close (assuming so as 7+ months old)

1 of only 4 suppliers approved for a DHSC contract with upto £3b spend. Not sure it will ever reach £3b but you have to be in it to win it, and to be 1 of only 4 you have to have something special about you.

Yes, very good points Kaeren.
10 min PCR test is game changing. The reply from the NHS to Saintsmith I think it was stated that they didn't need a machine that could produce 96 results in 80mins. They wanted 1 result in 25 mins. Well with a 10 min PCR test we open ourselves up to this market too and these will be additional sales not replacing sales to PROmate.

Lots to be excited about here

£77m cash at end of June
£3m per month generated since so £89m cash in bank now
£10m tax rebate to come
Gives £99m liquid assets now
Likely to exceed £100m revenue this year.
Supply of Q machines growing each month
PROmate-Coprep, one of the best combinations in the market
World beating R&D to cement future growth
World beating Bioinformatics keeping us at the forefront of the market
Huge distribution network
Large Direct sales team
Growing US presence (largest diagnostics market in the world)
Selling into 130+ countries
Contract with WHO who will be spending $20b+ next year
Contract with UN
Contract with NHS, will be more in the pipeline now we have Co-prep
US have $b's to spend on testing
We have gold standard covid testing covered
We have rapid testing covered
We have variants covered
We have flu/RSV covered
We have antibodies covered
We have POC covered
We have mobile units covered
We have mega labs covered
We 500+ other tests covered
We will be CE marking these tests gradually
We will be applying for FDA approval gradually
We have lots more products coming to market very soon.
Other similar mcap covid companies struggling to get 1 or 2 products out in the market
We are years ahead of our peers in AIM
We are £75m EV.
We make 40-45% margins in £100+ revenue per annum
Did I miss anything??????

The Capesize freight rate goes up and down based on iron ore demand from China, therefore any increase in the freight costs will be more than offset with the increase in the ore selling price. The calculations from Bill were based on $100 and the expected price of iron ore in 2022 is forecast to be no less than $115 by the bears so this will more than offset the Freight costs if we do indeed have to bear that cost (depends on what we negotiate with the customer). Let's also not forget that the cost were <$60 so that could be $58, $56. More potential upside there. Let's see what the actual NPV says when it comes out but I'm comfortable given the recent development on Freight costs.

Here is a price:

From Port Hedland to China. &12.50 per tonne. Not sure if that includes Insurance but it's a start and better than $20.

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/2918609/FREIGHT-REPORT-Iron-ore-freight-rates-to-China-trend-higher.html

Having done a little more research I do now see Trumble's point. It appears that CFR means that the seller is responsible for not only loading the ship but paying for and arranging the travel to the receiving port. The seller however is not responsible for insuring the load in transit. That is the buyers responsibility. Having said this, $34 per tonne seems extortionate. Imagine if you have a 500kt load, that's a $17m delivery charge. I wouldn't mind owning the ship. Where did the $34 price come from?

Positivity will prevail in the end.

I'll support this much more positive post I think.

Ncyt will get there, just needs time. I'm sure our new marketing savvy CEO will love spending a portion of his £85m pot of gold on a whole new range of marketing activities.

You can only hold a £175m mcap company that has £100m in liquid assets and who generates £40-£50m per annum profit, back for so long before the market realises it and boom.

Be positive that you realised it well before the market and had ample opportunities to build a position. My position is built. Just waiting for 1 of several RNS's to ignite the excitement.

I must say that reading back through the last 18 months or so RNS'S the work that Trevor and Antonio have done is quite amazing. You can really appreciate how they have laid the foundations for what could be a multi billion dollar business. The Comms have dropped off this last 2-3 months with regards to business updates which is a little concerning. I believe we are just one RNS away from a huge rerate here. They have fed us the building blocks now show us that the sales are being generated. That's all we need here.

Here is a RNS from 15th Feb stating 10,000 stores target. I believe it was being questioned.

Asian American Trading Associations Council ('AATAC')

The rollout of Zoetic's Chill brand of tobacco alternative products has now commenced across the AATAC's national convenience store distribution network. Leveraging dedicated shelf space, our products will take prime position within an initial 10,000 stores committed during the 'Prepare for Lift Off' phase. In conjunction with the sage advice of the AATAC's distribution experts, the Group's focus during this time will be on determining favourable geographic targets whilst gathering the data needed to optimise continued rollout operations. Initial product shipments are anticipated in the coming weeks, with the programme's early requirements set to be satisfied with existing inventory and available funds. With initial test markets set to span from New York to California, these key strategic geographies will inform our wider strategy, enhance brand recognition, and allow us to execute a mass market rollout that is repeatable and scalable.

I think it's worth remembering that buying today is a 50% discount to what our directors paid around a year ago.

Zoetic International plc (LSE: ZOE), the London-listed vertically integrated CBD company, has today been informed that its two directors, Trevor Taylor and Antonio Russo, have each agreed to purchase 500,000 ordinary shares of 1 pence each in the capital of the Company ("Ordinary Shares") from an existing shareholder at a price of US$0.51 (approximately 39p) per Ordinary Share (the "Transactions"). The Transactions are being undertaken off-market and are expected to complete within the next two weeks.

A reminder of how Chill are building an empire on solid foundations. The below is an extract from the 30th Sept 2020 RNS which is also one of the reasons why I pumped my hard earned money into these shares.

With over 110 varieties of hemp, businesses must meet the specifications set out by regulatory bodies whilst growing their plants in supervised, quality-controlled conditions. Having received test results from Colorado State University confirming a cultivation viability result of between 86% and 95%, we are confident that our seed genetics will continue to attract agronomical recognition as they undergo further testing. By building these operations into the fabric of the Group, we are confident that Zoetic can continue to grow its involvement across multiple income streams both in the recreational and pharmaceutical CBD markets.

In the same vein, and as a critical step towards formalising the Group's status as a market leader, this financial year has seen Zoetic make a range of US Patent applications which cover the method for the manufacture of Chill brand THC-free smokable CBD products and, in an unrelated application, for the composition of pharmaceutical products which include cannabinoids. Working closely with authoritative figures within the scientific community, it is our hope that the coming year will see progression towards the granting of these patents which offer significant protection to the Group's intellectual property and therefore its position as an innovator at the forefront of the CBD industry.

This also explains the CFR terms which also supports Bills $60 per tonne all in cost. Not $80. Hopefully this settles the debate.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cfr.asp

Understanding Cost and Freight (CFR)
Contracts involving international transportation often contain abbreviated trade terms that describe matters such as the time and place of delivery, payment, the conditions under which the risk of loss shifts from the seller to the buyer, and specifying the party responsible for the costs of freight and insurance.

If a buyer and a seller agree to include cost and freight in their transaction, the seller must arrange and pay for transporting the cargo to a specified port. The seller must deliver the goods, clear them for export, and load them onto the transport ship. The risk of loss or damage transfers to the buyer once the seller loads the items onto the vessel but before the main transportation occurs. This provision means the seller is not responsible for securing insurance for the cargo for loss or damage during transportation.

Ok, I think this extract actually settles the matter.

Under the terms of FOB (short for “Free on Board”), the seller clears the goods for export and ensures they are delivered to and loaded onto the vessel for transport at the named port of departure.

The buyer takes over risk and costs, including import clearance and duties, as soon as the goods are loaded onto the transport vessel at the port of departure.

https://www.aitworldwide.com/incoterms-fob

Well, if only we had a tobacco free product we could put forward. That would be a rather large contract.

BBC News - E-cigarettes could be available on NHS to tackle smoking rates
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59083491

That is a significant claim from Trumble. $60 to $80 just cost us $200m. Bill did say the $60 covered everything and mentioned nothing about an extra $20 shipping it to China.

I'm all for fellow investors challenging the numbers but if you are saying Bill is wrong or misleading us then you must show proof to support your claim. Your opinion will just be dismissed as 'just opiniin' if not substantiated.

In the meantime, another way to solve the unclarity is to directly ask Alien the question. Is someone able to do that and feed back to the BB please?

PI100, you're falling into the trap of basing your opinion on how people are behaving. In reality, the pandemic is far from over.

Listening to the government you would think the pandemic was a distant memory. That is why you will keep hearing them say "just to remind you, this pandemic is not over" despite their actions being completely contrary.

There's a while yet left in this thing.

That's what we need for mid cap. When you're floundering round at £175m mcap, £2.5b looks impossible. When you look at it from a revenue point of view then it looks more feasible. A couple of big developments/contracts and in a post covid world we wouldn't actually be that far off. Imo

Rev £475m
EBITDA say 35%
EBITDA = £166m
PV ratio say 15 (post covid)
Mcap = £2.5b
Sp = £35ish

That is the target. Not a millions miles away to be fair.