Member Info for DRB83

Wow, that is very brave Tacet to give such bold financial advice with so much conviction. I appreciate the positivity but let's not forget that this is just all opinion. Tacet could be wrong and if you will be setting yourself up for a barrage of abuse. Just my opinion.

Agree Kilt but my own personal belief is that if they are still only on target to deliver £100m then I'm not happy with that. Given that cases have soared, the sales teams are growing, we have more machines out there compared to Q1, winter is coming and we now have more products to sell (specifically aimed at winter), then why on earth would we be happy with less sales compared to Q1 and Q2. Doesn't make sense. Is this why the market is so nervous about ncyt?

Q1 sales = £30m
Q2 sales = £24m
Q3 sales = £23m
Q4 sales = £23m
2022 Q1 = £20m
Q2 = £15m
Q3 = £10m
Q4 = £5m

This is what the market knows and sees because this is what ncyt have told us. What pattern do you see? When I lay it out like that then it's pretty obvious why we don't have II's coming on board.

DA, is this a fair representation of the future of ncyt or would you like to intervene? Over to you.

What strikes me with the YGEN update is despite not revealing any specifics they were willing to share some forward guidance. They expect FY figures to exceed market expectations. That is a bullish comment, clearly the SP was overpriced then considering it has dropped 5% as I type but nevertheless it is a bullish statement.

Do we know what the market expectations are for ncyt for 2022 given we are only 2 months away? All we have had is Covid is expected to half so I guess we are priced at £50m. Unless we offload a ton of heads out EBITDA margins will likely reduce to let's say 20% so profit of 10m for 2022. £85m cash gives us a £100m EV gives us a 10 pe.

Well, I guess if you give the market shat, the market will give you shat back. The shat will continue until we feed the market the future outlook statement that has some good numbers in it. All imo

As far as I am aware there is no obligation to give a Q3 update if it does not differ significantly from market expectations. Market expects £25m for Q3. So anything less than £20m or greater than £30m should imo be communicated.

The spread on ncyt is too tight. It's a traders dream. MM's are doing it for a reason. Any guesses?

Is this the science the government are pinning our health on. Whilst the signs are leading us all to believe cases are going up the government believe everything is going to be ok. What are we all worried about. They've not be wrong before :-)

BBC News - Covid: Are cases about to plummet without Plan B?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59039739

Possibly CT but one short alone couldn't have moved the SP that significantly unless it was the short that started it and then the traders and PI's jumped on board thinking it was a leak. Hence the sell off on Monday when they realised there was no news. Who knows. What I do know is that the SP is almost back down to where we started on Friday so it's like it never happened. Hence why I believe those shares traded Friday have been traded again since. Just my opinion.

Agree with Exmex I have to say Dunc. Had you worded your opinion better you would have received a more favourable response from all I suspect. Your first line indicates you know that for a fact when really you don't know anymore than any of us.

On your point though. It could well be ncyt buying shares as CT also eluded to, it is possible. If it is it would be nice for ncyt to share this news.

I would have however expected the SP to hold the gain if the shares were going into sticky hands or was it PI's and traders selling into the gain that brought it back down.

I think someone mentioned previously that it could just as likely have been a consortium of traders manipulating the SP with a pre agreed entry and exit point, robbing unsuspecting traders and PI's of their funds. Who knows and frankly who cares? News is the only thing that is going to shift this share.

Agree with that HarChris. I'm already locked and loaded here. Have been for a few weeks now. Just waiting patiently for the news.

Wentsland, if it was that simple we would already be at 10p. The point is, it is possible and Bill is building a team that might just be able to deliver it. Happy to see the steady 10% daily gains here. Hopefully the traders' sells are getting bought by stickier hands and we'll continue on this trajectory for some time to come. Never managed to get my top up. Oh well

It's great how YGEN split out their Covid, non-covid business:

Covid = £10.5m
Non-covid = £7m

Would be great to see the ncyt split. Must reassure you that when ncyt sort themselves out the SP will rerate accordingly. With the exception of the dispute, ncyt have everything they need to get the ball rolling. Just need to communicate it to the market.

Why should we let someone else have what we have when its potentially worth billions. We don't need them in my opinion.

Step 1. Raise $30m and start producing at Han****.
Step 2. Use the $2m per month cash from Han**** to speed up drilling on Brockman
Step3. Obtain MRE on Brockman, initially it may be 20-30mt to get started
Step 4. Start production in Brockman, at same time Han**** will now be producing $4m per month. Brockman is 10 times bigger let's assume LOM is twice as long as Han**** meaning Brockman can produce 5 times what Han**** can so $20m per month. So $24m per month in Hamersley. This will last us 10+ years.
Step 5. Dividends + invest into exploration arm of business (no more placings, no debts just huge dividends)
Step 6. Bring EH, Munni Munni, 3 Mexico projects and Greenland online
Step 7. Bring in new exploration projects
Step 8, even bigger dividends

Like I said, no need to give any of our projects away. We could be set for life. All imo.

Sounds a bit rampy. Sorry

'Without Covid Testing, I'd say it's worth what it was pre-covid, which is about 10p a share. **I** believe that covid is here for a long time, but the market seems to disagree with me...'

It's pointless saying that. You can't just discount the pandemic. I assume you mean, if the pandemic never happened we would still be in debt with very little cash and £10m sales. Possibly but the pandemic did happen. It's a bit like saying if Jeff Bezos was never born Amazon would be worthless. Well yes but what is your point CaneToad

Makes sense to me metal. Time will tell

Thanks for the breakdown PaulQ but not quite sure if that is how it would work. We plan to produce at 50% in 1st year so about 50,000 tonnes per month. Bill mentioned 100,000t or even 500,000t shiploads so even the 100,000t load would take 2 months to fill. This would get us $10m after 2 months. Meanwhile we have no link road built yet and we have purchase invoices to pay for the lease of the mobile units and subcontractors.

This only works if we get cash upfront because the road will need to be built first. $15m at least is needed before the 1st iron ore arrives at the docks. So the options imo are:
1. Offtake agreement for say 300-400kt with cash upfront.
2. JV with a major who will bear the capex cost
3. Placing but due to size Vs mcap could mean a large premium discount + warrants
4. Secured Loan

I'm preferring option 1 but not sure how likely it would be. Failing that it would be a JV.

By the way. I'm not concerned at all. Just excited about which way this will play out. Whichever way it is, we will all be better off.

PaulQ, sorry seen it now. What do you exactly mean by motherload? Are you referring to a takeoff agreement or to sell Han****?

Bill said that we need to build a road that takes us to the existing highway that takes us to the port. Bill says about $15m. Not exactly sure what the other $15m is for as I would expect the mobile units to be leased, therefore payments spread out monthly. Maybe there will be a large upfront deposit to pay.

Rocket. How do we go it alone? $30m is a lot. You can't build the road as we go so we'll need the cash upfront. Could we arrange a takeoff with cash upfront. It's only 300k tonnes which is about 3 months production. Might work.

Do we have to concede that Han**** will have to be JV. Otherwise where do we get the $30m capex from. That's a pretty big placing even at 1.5p. Once we have cash coming in by the boatload we could concentrate on bringing Brockman online and keep it 100%.

With hindsight Chris you should have closed your short about 7 days ago but we live and learn.

Lol. 20 occupants. Didn't notice that.

They have 20x more people than we do. The point is still the same.