Member Info for DRB83

Maybe now is the perfect time to switch it up for ncyt.

We have Covid pretty much covered. Products, sales channels, r&d resources, contracts. We can turn manufacturing up as and when required. Afterall we managed to supply £277m of goods last year. We have it all in place and it's generating some good money. Now I'm not saying reduce our Covid resources, I would be happy to keep increasing them but surely it doesn't require our BODs full and undivided attention anymore. It certainly doesn't require our full cash disposal.

What I am saying is that whilst the rest of the competition focuses on covid let us sneek in and gain market share in other areas. The world wants to move on from Covid so I'm pretty sure there are plenty of customers out there wanting to buy the next generation tests for other illnesses. Just imo. Could be a perfect opportunity but the doors are closing.

Regardless of whether covid stays or leaves, we need to build new resources (staff, r&d, manufacturing agreements) that are purely focussed on non-covid markets. We have £100m cash. Let's at least use some of it.

The dispute and our 'covid only' status is suppressing the SP. Over to you David

Deja vu. Leave it out

You kinda get the feeling that if the CEO breaks wind they might just RNS it. Pallets is probably a few thousand quid.

Byp, buyers will come back on good news. The level of good news will determine if they stay or not. Simples.

If it doesn't help the SP it certainly helps the fundamentals. So the gap is growing between SP and fundamentals. A rerate when it is good and ready will bridge the gap. Bottom drawer for me now.

The actual nose dive started from January after the exceptional results we received which unfortunately turned sour due to the huge expectations everyone had at the time. Me included. The vaccine news in November turned out to be nothing more than a blip at the time as we quickly got back to £12. The dispute was the final nail in the coffin and has been ever since. Oh, and the BODs reluctance to even hazard a guess at the 2022 budget. 7 weeks to 2022. This is my main beef with the company. Forward looking statements and Comms. I am comfortable for now that GM is not a fraudster.

Byp, the spike on ncyt was based on a £400m contract with the DHSC with the potential of an even bigger contract. The contracts included lots of Q's which would underpin and secure long term revenues from a potentially huge customer. This was a mega, unprecedented deal for a company the size of ncyt in a unprecedented time leading up to winter with a lot of hype around our new Winterplex test. It's not hard to see why the market drove the price upto £700m. The gov contract was true, we've seen the revenue, phase 2 was true. I believe you have also been thrown a GM scandal bone and now can't seem to put it down.

How do you get off the creek without a paddle unless you believe we are doomed.

The one we need to get down the creek

I suspect you'll get your wish pretty soon.

Mr Big. That will keep happening. The more we let our guard down the more it will spread. Hospitalisations and deaths will determine when the pandemic is controlled. 200 deaths a day is no where near where it needs to be. Vaccines alone arn't enough. Therapeutics are emerging but will take months to get into the system. I expect by next summer we should be coming out of this pandemic. This is all dependant of course on no more VOC's. Get another one of those and we'll lose our paddle.

Assuming next summer comes and we are at say 20 hospitalisations per day and 0-1 deaths. Let's also assume that EU, US, Asia haven't managed to control it as well. What do you think our border testing should look like? Should we even have border testing? Genuine question.

There stacking up now. At this rate I might have to find a new country. We'll be going bust.

BBC News - Vaccine firm Valneva seeks apology over Javid comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59240345

Mcap £150m
Cash and cash equivalents £100m
EV £50m (or 70p per share)

Revenue = £100m
EBITDA £43m
EV £50m
Pays for itself in 14 months.
Wish I could pull a consortium together and buy it outright at market cost.

15 trades today. I am sure Viridian will show their cards soon. Won't they. Yes, I am certain. I think they will. Surely they will. They must. They have to. Don't they. Maybe they won't. No, they will. I'm convinced of it.

Just to put it into context, by 75% you mean £3m?

Thanks BB2

Probably best to put the UK in the bottom drawer then. Could be upto 18 months giving us Oct 2022. US is the main aim and then we have EU, they may be quicker than UK. Never the less we only need US to be multiples from where we currently are.

A link would be great if possible please.

Didn't the vaccine news hit in November way before we expected it. This would have caused alot of uncertainty around that time. Mburns, you have like many others been thrown a bone and now can't see any alternative view despite the vast number of them. Oh well

Byp, yes but we don't know anything about the other products so we would just be guessing. Plus, ncyt said the 50% earlier this year. What is to say that doesn't change and covid stays around longer?