Member Info for dougb189

Comedy gold is always Ryan :

22.07.22
Ryan Gaffney, CFO, commented further:

"The Cuda Acquisition is a positive step towards COPL America's refinancing process as it provides majority ownership of our Wyoming Assets and increases our bankable borrowing base which should make it easier to achieve a larger refinancing later this year. We are pleased with our shareholders' support to provide a longer-term Convertible with well-defined conversion parameters...”

Lol. “..well defined..” ?!!!!!

Mr.T., at least you tried to make sense of it, so gave it your best shot. Slightly astray but still a good effort as it then generated positive feedback from which most peeps were then able to draw a satisfactory accurate conclusion.

Unlike several of this bb’s LTH trolls who then hide all day not having a clue what is happening until the dust clears.
& who can then only turn up to troll investors who give balanced views.

The Main point today being:
Anavio are very much still in the game.

Several of last night’s trolls now missing in action.
Having got investment advice from The Sun horoscope,
& are now M.I.A. with no idea of what’s happening.
How sad the state of some OAP’s lack of understanding.

The Lady has played a good part in all my successes.
But she unfortunately just has to work slightly harder on this one but I’m confident it is still within her remit albeit the many poorly written RNS’s with their barely borderline ‘half-truths’ will have kept her away but thinking that there’s a recent change for the better, over these last 6 months.
Starting to think she might be back in the game.

*weather Gods. (I think that’s the big fella..Thor ?!)

3littleP’s., that was the thinking (poorly written) at 15:42 with…
‘a fairly major step-change would perhaps be required’.

I see the BH still being very much onside with AM but that a pre-determined conversion rate would perhaps then be agreed on, once the dust has settled on RBL &/or JV ie a step-change / re-rate in the bond figures, then keeping within your 47% dilution. So, using c.600M OS is then not too bad a figure.

So more dilution yes, but hopefully not as bad as the calculations have it, using the most recent conversion fee figures combined with the ultra low conversion rate eg. 10c / 8.3p

Fish, the double espressos are at the start of any DD, & then results in 2 to 3 months of 2a.m. retire followed by 4a.m. wide awake & is usually being woken from fresh ideas.
At this stage of the game (lol, several years later) we have all done the DD on the management (many sleepless nights) & of the oil strata’s as seen with nearby companies. Now it is just down to AM’s strategies with a wee bit of Lady Luck to assist (whether Gods have been poo). Best just chilling out & waiting.

Well spotted Fish.
Lol. I need another espresso.

Canada update prior to 5th working day of the month..

Fingers crossed duster & there is a step-change.
Several metrics could be flexible
JV, RBL or Gusher..

3littleP’s., The numbers as per the most recent conversions & their fees,
As posted 2 days after last conversion, so still valid. & For which the probabilities of a 10c / 8.3p conversion were then calculated from..

So far :
17.2 x6 securities fees paid in shares : $0.75 / 8.5M shares = 7.3p
each x1 security fee = $125,000 generates 1.416 shares.
24.2 x13 securities fees paid : $1.7M / 20.4M shares = 6.95p
each x1 security fee = $130,770 generates 1.569M shares.

This week ? & still have 15 Bonds previously converted to have fees paid
With sp now lower at 6.375p (the 5-day VWAP still high at c.6.8p)
we could see the last 15 ‘fees’ being paid & generating c.25M shares,
So, maybe a 10% dilution on sp by MM’s who perhaps are assisting some BH chums with their shorts, gaining a lower sp & so gives more shares to the BH.

Assuming of course, that none of the still outstanding Bond batches of $200,000 each, are converted at a possible revised rate, eg. 10 cents each ?? or 8.3p (10c simply being easier maffs)

Bonds in total 63 + 63 + 20 = 146 less the Bonds converted -32
so still have 114 to convert, of which Bonds owned by Anavio = 104.
So possibly still have 10 in smaller hands.

Could then first be looking at the last 15 ‘fees’ c.25M shares.
Then maybe the 10 ‘rogue’ bonds of $200,000 at 10 cents each (8.3p)
which then generates 2M shares per Bond; 20M if all 10 bonds get converted.

The big question is, what gets popped first,
A. the placing previously needed in March,
…so say maybe $2M cash raised & IF at 10c = 20M OS
B. The ‘fees’ paid on 15 already converted bonds, say 25M OS
C. The remains 10 Bonds in smaller hands c.20M OS
D. News of JV &/or RBL

With no comms from AM, we could imv be looking at c.400M shares by end of March.

As posted… “..most diligent posters..”

The yeeee haaaa’s will no doubt point at the lunar orbiter..

Fish,
I think most diligent holders would settle for a 5 bagger, say..30p

3littleP’s.,
313M diluted at 0.88/each gives additional 275M shares,
Totalling 588M.
so 73% accuracy for someone doodling in Costa’s
& pencilling in a revised conversion rate of 10c / 8.3p
‘Grossly over-inflated’ ?! Lol, but was only two espressos.

So would you care to define what is meant by the ‘aggregate dilution’…

TR1. & put simply.. Why bother?? Currently there are 313M OS.
And one player is currently sitting on a potential 50% of equity.

104 bonds, at a new conversion of say, 10 cents / 8.3p
Then generates 208M new shares.
Fees collected @6.95p for conversion gave 1.569M shares per bond.
& at 10c /8.3p then is closer to 1.2M shares per bond.
That alone then generates another 124.8M shares, just in fees.

So at today’s rates, Anavio could theoretically collect c.324.8M shares
& don’t forgot to include their warrants also.

Hence it puts any quoted sp of c.£6+ as rather silly, without taking into account the full conversions plus fees. Then perhaps we are left with a slightly more probable figure of say…

313M + 324.8M + 50M (warrants) + 50M (options)
+ 25M (fees for the 15 bonds already converted)
+ 20M (10 bonds held by BH minors, still to be converted)
+ 12M (fees for the previous 10 bonds).

So, a possible 794.8M shares in circulation, so, c.800M IF the bonds are then converted at 10c, which does sound improbable, as would then signify a significant ‘ownership’ by someone other than AM, which would perhaps send the sp back to & over 16p.

With high volumes thought of shares expected, even at 13.3p, then that previous targeted 50p is looking a wee bit ambitious.

Assuming that there is no endless drip-feeding of the remaining 114 bonds (104 for Anavio) & then each bond’s fees (only 19 have been paid so far) also drip-dripping into the market, which then imo suggests a fairly major step-change / re-rate prior to any announcement would perhaps be needed.

It could be that £6 is eventually reached with say top end figure of c.800M OS,
but imv, this would be then inclusive of OPL.
Said it before, he needs to get back to deeper waters.

Further incoherence & as per Genghis’s.,
perhaps there is a similarity with RBS to Copl’s implosion,
2007/8 & RBS went from an sp of c.£20 to 12p in Jan.2009
Then 50p a few months later, so a nice wee trade. To be repeated here ?

So are we also at that similar ‘rock-bottom’ point..
As Mr.T points out it is not necessary for Copl’s survival to have a JV,
It could still function through a slow development of the fields,
At a cost though of much much more dilution.

Get Liz as director of communications ;
her presentations so far have been quite credible.

Lots of interesting trading positions being described :

Binary ; it’s alive, it’s alive, it’s alive…ahhhh, we regret to inform you..
Messiah ; it’s AM sent to save the Holy Trinity of the US, the BH & the MM’s.
Fibionacci ; it’s snoozing on the 78.6% fib prior to a frontal attack on 7.55p
Poop & Scoops ; it really stinks just prior to coming up smelling of roses.

Perhaps a lucky dice could be used,
marked JV, RBL, TR1, Gusher, Spring Arrives & number 6.. Horizontals.
& failing Lady Luck interventions..
VWAP tied into 52 week high & low plus discretionary level, MA 5 minutes ?

As some point out, AM seems to have a very weak board supporting him.
When Oilexco crashed, they had an mc$4.2B & debt of $0.5B which the banks then called in. The company then sold at knockdown price of $0.5B leaving investors with nowt.
The Toxic mortgages had though been brewing for almost 2 years with several large US banks already having collapsed. So where was the CFO advising AM against further interest borrowings, where was the CFO advising AM against throttling back on production from c.25,000bopd down to c.18,000bopd for some ‘renovations’, at this most critical period in time?

Would like to think he has learnt some lessons. & Perhaps he has, as per the zero communication policy or as seen with bringing in the BH, covering expansion with equity, trying to isolate Copl from too much bank influence/ interest ?
Have to say though, the board still look incredibly weak.
An average age of 71 years does not help.

Thanks John, the charts show v.cold but there does appear to be a hint of spring in the air.

Lol but i remember my own pathetic entreaties from 24 months ago, pleading directly, that he created a dialogue with retail, to try to reverse the negative sentiment. Its just not in his blood. Cowboy / red-neck school of management is always a concern but the downside has hopefully all been
weighed in. Winter conditions will be pivotal but as above, there are some glimmers of blue skies.

Stebol, as the Fish has effectively pointed out, you have allowed your emotions to then cloud any rational thought aka your opinion ‘concerns including cashflow is noise’. So, totally disregarding any/all valid concerns as “nonsense”. (On a similar par with Sadiq Khan’s rather blinkered theory that all dissenters to his opinions, must be far right?!).

As you correctly point out, this is not ‘a corner shop’, yet you fail to explain why it is so closely priced as such. You glibly state that this is a massive oil field. But if so, these tend to go in the region of Billions of $$. Whereas a decent corner shop, might fetch say, barely 1 million.
Which is then far far closer to our mc. The market currently has us priced.. Closer to a decent sized corner shop. And nowhere near to your massive oil field.

Do totally agree with the nonsense of those pathetic entreaties but yet that then best encapsulates your very own approach ? ie. those OAPs & their pathetic entreaties are lacking either experience or maturity in the purchasing of equities, which follows your own approach, being just narrowly ‘focused on confirmed discovery and who wants in’. Whereas any decent investor would keep an eye on the management of confirmed discovery. The lack of experience ignoring this, which is closely matched by the OAPs lack of experience.

There is a lot to be excited about. The main BH are still holding c.£20M of unconverted securities and the senior lender recently opted for a % in share holdings rather than a similar % in NAV which then states they believe the share will be at a premium to the NAV.
There is though still a lot to be cautious about. History shows us that.

Was a good day. It was always going to be a noisy session as per any RNS update, inclusive of nice field update (LTH all smiling, I certainly was) & inclusive of ‘ongoing concerns’ with this then being related to a covenant waiver (fairly trivial for LTH but sufficient dark cloud generated to allow the day-traders some smiling) & for which i’m guessing none of the spooked could actually remember the small fine that was previously incurred should we again break the covenant.
A good day for chilling & keeping an eye on the bond holders, who then also appeared to be likewise similarly chilling.