Member Info for dougb189

6 month targets might be
c.2700bopd at $60/bbl
c.2200bopd at $75/bbl
Which puts us in line with analysts estimated turnover figures,
Then estimated to bring SL net borrowing down from $39M to $22M
& $2.2M by EOY 2024.
Latest production updates post the severe Winter blues, would be nice.

Thanks LLnP., we should hopefully get the Q4 & EOY figures 29 March.

Guessing somewhere slightly above your estimated c.450M shares (inc warrants & options) is a reasonable figure to work with as would have included the outstanding fees due on the last 15 bonds that were converted, giving c.30M plus a few more bond conversions from smaller BH, giving new total perhaps c.500M shares.

Free cash flow was then forecasted to be c.$24M this year from recent estimated revenues for 2023 of c.$64M, but which now hinges on the stability of POO (B of E, hiking interest rates to shore up the banks coffers in case of a run on the financial sector?) and of course AM meeting those production targets. Lol. it will be interesting over the next 6 months.

Shorts getting worried again ?
Lol, could be an entertaining weekend.

Lol, nice one bud. Well done.

6 months ?

Lol, so a Pi with 3.16% holding, which is very ballsy. Nice one.
& who is hopefully nowhere close to being as exposed,
as some of those recent new posters with the..
‘..I’ve thrown the kitchen sink at it & now I don’t know what to do..’

Can totally understand though,
why it’s current pointless in raising the paperwork for a TR1.

There will v.likely be some more dilutions, from smaller bond holders looking to perhaps hedge their purchases. Main BH though appears to be staying the course, having assisted in coughing up an extra $13.6M with a possible further additional $8M being made available to the company if it is then required. Does look like c.5p is a good support line.

‘our dirty little secret’ lol.
The better half’s are just watching bemusedly as their partners alternate from frothing at the mouth to rolling on the floor in fits of laughter, which is exactly where i found myself last night, having read of some poor punter who was 60% down on 1 million shares and who had therefore lost the best part of c.£80k and what was his response.. for someone to attend the AGM & pass on his “disillusionment”.

I don’t know if i was giggling at his very polite manners or of AM’s obvious laughing response.

Which was then immediately followed by LTH all ticking up a post that ‘any talk of 1B shares was pure sh!7e’.

Was a night of the naive & the blinkered posts, generating lots of mirth & then try keeping ‘our dirty little secret’ ?
Lol, that aint happening.

Lol, is coz figures produce grapths
& grapths highlight previous support & resistance lines.

Which might help wxplain why MM’s pegged this at 60p
After returning to trading… ?!

There was not 16B shares in 2020.
Jan 2020 c.3.5B shares thru to Dec 2020 c.4.8B shares.

The sp did though go from 0.04p April (YM bought) then 0.07p May (moi) & up to c.0.6p by August.

Noticeable on the grapths that 0.6p / 60p forms a well defined resistance,
As does 0.05 / 5p support

“.. Get to 5000 is First Base..” seems to be a common sentiment but imv it’s wrong.

First base should be now. It should be regular updates on the positives from the flaring, from the individual wells being worked over.

‘5000’ is just another arbitrary figure. Without a build up of market sentiment, without a story behind how it is being accomplished, it will then get washed out. It will spike & then drop. Pi’s will certainly be keen to exit on any spike & a few weak hands amongst the BH will probably do the same, as no one currently has a clue what is happening until the production figures are eventually posted almost 2 months later. There needs to be regular updates if the sp is to have any chance of creating a support line.

The good news is that I suspect the BH have taken an active role already in developing some sentiment. Primarily as seen by the out-of-COPL-synch publication release of last RNS, which then gave the market only 10 minutes to react which then stopped any negative spins having time to cast their doubts on nervous Pi’s.
AM would never have bothered to consider the market dynamics, & as seen frequently, hardly ever bothers to clarify or explain when he does then post. Guessing (And hoping) we might be seeing an external influence.

*do = sp

It won’t be quite 50% reduction in shares if the sp hits 14p but can be seen from the February conversion & the March conversion that as the sp drops there is an increase in shares issued for each bond security that has previous been converted, ergo. the numbers will then decrease as the sp rises.

The conversion fees is indeed a variable but Unnd’s calcs give a good reference figure : 284M on the outstanding bond securities if converted at his quoted reference c.6.95p.
Should the do then hit 14p there will then be half that figure say c.140M, so when considering a worst case scenario that figure 284M/140M then becomes fairly insignificant.
Add in the extra warrants that were mentioned in the additional Jan 3rd winter conversion (those quoted at 18p) &
Add in the staff options & warrants at the top end of the scale,
assuming of course we ever see the dizzy heights of c.30p
& then the 140M shares that we save on higher conversion fees, quickly gets swallowed up ?

Would only disagree with Unnd’s claim that 1.2B shares would then be considered as total equity in any buyout. Unconverted bonds would be secured as per MI 61-101 ie. protection of Minority Security Holders (the BH) in connection specifically with insider bids & issuer bids (the BH are actively protecting themselves) and are ‘otherwise entitled to receive different consideration or other benefits under the terms of the transaction that are unavailable to the other shareholders of the company’.

I don’t think Unnd is correct in then stating that their securities carry the same entitlements as shareholders in the case of a buyout ?

* the recent Credit Suisse fiasco (directors vanity gone OTT) then saw the bond holders of Tier 1 securities lose everything, which shook up the banking sector (the shareholders gained) is an extreme example, but it does highlight that the bonds are on a different footing to shareholders equities.

Wwal., there’s a question mark over the impartiality of the MM’s which then sees us with c.£11M cash plus assets all being valued as junk.

Suspecting that AM may think likewise.

And if going private…

52 week high @ 34p.

The brutal truth is that 1.3B is actually on the conservative side.

The brutal reality though is that trying to pump & dump that extra 1B shares is on a par with selling a bucketful of confetti ie. Pi’s would quickly throw in the towel.

What was mentioned last night was that it was an extremely dire business model that the deleted poster was trying to promote, which centred on the BH having invested $33.6M on a theoretical pump & dump programme, with another $8.2M still being made available. Would be nigh on impossible to dump.

There is though the question mark of credibility with the London institutions ie the MM’s appear to be playing extremely obnoxiously.

Then raises the Q., of why bother listing, especially in London ?

The reputation has been severely…questioned.
Still young enough to get back into deeper waters,
where i see Liz perhaps also stepping up,
Off the back of a few extra conversions, a few horizontals & some lucky white heather.

Genuine would sadly be that the MM’s currently have this pegged as ‘junk status’. Needs a step change in management.

Lol but even one ball is still one more than what the young lady has.

Lol, so that pops my theory of AM banking $50M (year 2) then purchasing Essar’s OPL holdings, to try rebuild that reputation.

So, I hit the sweet spot bud ?! Lol.
but do carry on, there’s opportunities for some,
whilst others like yourself perhaps, are feeling a wee bit heat.. ?

Lol, but the million $ question is…
are the main BH following retail’s concerns ?

The bb did strongly protest about the dire state of the board.
And which has now appears to have been answered..