Member Info for dougb189

Of course Anavio would dispose of them, the numbers are insignificantly small but they do facilitate the testing of the conversion system and of the disposal system via the MM’s.

If you held several million $$ in a new financial security arrangement, you would prioritise the testing of withdrawal from the arrangement.

Would guess that Anavio have converted recently.

There is obviously strong Pi sentiment to try reconfiguring the status quo which currently sees AM shirking any responsibility for the disastrous RNS release. It then appears that for the Pi’s to outvote the board at the AGM, that the holdings they have available, then exceed the board’s power. It could then of been voting the CEO off.

Hence Avanio in all probability, converted enough to hold court over the AGM.

There is then the situation where the legal team hold 5% and IF there was then to be a take over, that 5% would entitle the legal team to 10% discount on their CGT.

Anavio would then have to hold some shares to now hedge against either of the above 2 scenarios.

Thanks Genghis., my interpretation is that AM is a hands-on guy, but that sadly, these hands have gotten rusty. Lol, see it often with technical chaps demoted to the office for one or two years & then lose the use of their hands-on skill sets when returning to the field. That B&Q tubing though certainly takes the biscuit.

Opticrazy, this is a bulletin board, it needs to be balanced.
There obviously will be negativity if the sp crashes every time there is a sloppy RNS delivered or if production targets never materialise.

The balance though that is missing, is in any sincere replies.

If then you have a bb with nowt but pond-life chastising every time someone makes a negative comment then it fuels the flame of discontent. We all fekked up on this stock, we should all own it. And that includes recognising the negatives.

If someone then consistently posts on ego issues, then shoot them down. But currently we are still waiting on AM to stick his head above the parapet.

If Anavio then only converted 3 bonds from each initial tranche, out of a total of 126 bonds, from middle of last year, why then do you go in a tail-spin with assuming they have now started selling in the last month…

“.. is the shortfall in technical staff and skil….”

As an aside, does anyone know to what AM was referring to, when on the very initial acquisition of Atomic, there was a reference given ‘to being able to use the newly acquired technical staff on an overseas (Africa?) venture’.
Had me scratching my head on where one might put staff with fracking skills…

‘..Market cap just about represents cash in the bank..’
Is best highlighted in Simplywall.st charts
That the PS is 1.1x
Which then has quite a few peers using similar PS metrics to arrive at an mc.

It then puts the analysts end of the year figures of earnings c.£66M
into the spotlight and of course a possible 1B+ shares,
That then giving an sp of 6.6p

The mc thought should, once profits are being made, then convert from PS evaluations to hopefully PE evaluation, perhaps x3.

But then… once Must input AM historical behaviour and so query how much is the Fed Deep’s requirement for, as AM puts it, ‘new technologies to capture that elusive oil’.
ie. could we lose BF mf profits for AM then chasing more expensive outlays & at which point the MM’s will probably keep PS as an mc reference.

Look on the bright side; with so many emotional players involved including the CEO’s several documented lapses, and the resultant rather large negative premium applied to the stock, it then facilitates.. opportunities.

Why are peeps so focused on a single entity when the field has significant others partaking in the game ?

With the legal team’s 6% & the BH’s recently converted 10% this will inhibit any Pi rebellion.

The damage has been done, focus should be on what’s ahead.

I suspect AM realises his company is currently valued very cheap and so will then be looking at trying to improve shareholder sentiment once any technical difficulties are out of the way.

A good post last night of someone waiting 2 years for dividends.
But if the shares are still treated as confetti any dividend will be worthless.
Far better for the company in the short to medium term that AM starts to look after his investors & starts repurchasing equity. And done so whilst at these ridiculously low prices.

If JV before September then a cheap entry c.$50M at 50/50 & 3 wells paid for.

If JV after September (assumes then that further DD work has been carried out on Fed Deep from uprated GGS funding) then entry at c.$100M & reduced JV % holdings.

Either scenario should then allow AM to purchase the outstanding 167 bonds at their principle value of $33.4M plus additional c.15% interest c.$5M, so saving a further 100% dilution from the outstanding 408M conversion shares.
Then AM receiving $9M from 133M warrants at 6.75p.
So a total outlay of almost $30M (38.4 - 9.0) then sees the COPL shares stabilised at c.600M in circulation (396M + 133M + staff options) and hopefully stabilises sentiment also.

Is just notice that as a new director, Mr.Richardson is legally obligated to notify market of any buying or selling due to his insider position. The new SEDI account allows him to directly inform the market.

Interesting legal parameters perhaps, where his employer then sells ? Certainly suggests though that his employer is taking a more serious interest in their hefty investment.
Hopefully TDR brings some badly needed market savvy to help improve Copl’s standing. The dynamics of investor sentiment appears to have possibly changed : Last week & was 97% retail whilst this week it now appears it could have dropped closer to 82%.

There was c.3000 shorts closed last week.. v.small number but a nice start ahead of this summer’s busy schedule of field developments.

I’d agree Mr.S., will still be on the low side, albeit good explanation has been given.

Should the release of the WOGS data revert again to the middle of the month, as they were when Atomic Senior owned the field, could then be used as a positive flag.

A good indicator perhaps that we may finally be on the home run,
when AM again reverts to posting the data mid-month.

2 to 3 months provisionally if all goes good on GGS construction, starting from either Saturday 29th April or more likely Monday 1st May, which then puts mid-July as a good pivot point.

Uprated high pressure flows from the 1st 8 wells possibly mid-July, could then perhaps see the WOGS data for July, then being posted mid-August.

Lol, so a possible indicator come August, that we have after 2 years, finally arrived..

Eazy, that’s a reasonable view point ie there is good enthusiasm being shown.

Pilot, is that not the same as saying..
‘it’s better to go off the official Wyoming figures’.

Lol, but… I’d put a small wager that the Wyoming figures might actually come in slightly higher than the recently quote ‘March daily average of 1200’. My bet is..Courtesy of just another sloppy RNS.

Don’t be too harsh Stas., I suspect that the Fish’s messages ring sympathetic to a significant proportion of this bb’s readers. Namely that there is a lot of post / thread deletions being routinely carried out.

Which then results in any balanced opinions ie. those contrary to sic. COPL’s RBL declarations or that AM is the Messiah, then all being systematically deleted.

Did you yourself not have 3 or 4 posts deleted this week all of which primarily accused of AM of being ‘economical with the truth’..? The recently departed Edmund whose netback calculations then gave an insight into how long we could reasonably expect the company to continue as a going concern, was likewise similarly treated.

There is a group within a TG group, who are primarily orchestrating the removal of any LSE threads deemed to be casting negative aspirations on COPL.

Is then just a simple courtesy to play them at their own game..
hence why maintaining factually correct posts with factually correct numbers which then scores every time as seen by the tail-spins of those irked players.

Eg.
Q1 avg. 1200 bopd x 90d. = 108,000 bbls
Jan avg. 1070 bopd x 31d. = 33,170 bbls
Feb avg. 1275 bopd x 28d. = 35,700 bbls.

March therefore had 39,130 bbls / 31d = 1262 bopd.
So, the figures show an average flow rate of 1262 bopd during March.

It is then left to the balanced reader to determine wether the quoted 1700 bopd was again yet another economy of the truth..

Lol.

Brel’s assessment perhaps explains why the BH are holding c.10%
Only two of these bonds were floated on the market, so far,
& they both went to a client or VIP Pi.

Lol, but It might perhaps even put a date on a possible announcement,
possibly it is tied in with end of April & commencing of GGS,
which is reliant on the “procurement” of long lead items,
which normally relates to the contractual process / time involved in manufacturing complex equipment, but could imv also relate to the time required to acquire an item due to decommission schedules from say a JV with surplus to spare.

Neither types of procurement require market notification but there does appear to be slim possibility that with the ‘release’ of these long-lead items there may be additional data released..

Everyone now happily accepting shares in lieu payments.
Edmunds calculations showed 18p netbacks, so COPL generating cash & further cash still available from Anavio.

Legal team >5% would need to fill in tax return when selling
Would then gain 10% entitlement to tax relief on CGT
But only IF the stock was sold in a take-over.

And IF that was to happen, BH would lose on any profiting.
ie. their loans would all be paid off.
Unless they held some shares.

Very very very small chance that AM would sell COPL
But as posted earlier, the BH can not afford to ignore that small possibility. AM is not a trustworthy guy.

Now the BH have hedged quickly (after Friday’s RNS) with over c.11% in shares,
Just incase perhaps the legal team were indeed working on a TO.

Anyone remember their obligations IF holding >15% ?

There’s the holding that was suggested would happen last Saturday nite, the BH gotten spooked by the legal team holding >5%.

Mr.T., that’s cool bud, the balanced numbers show a bb preference away from just having gratuitous noise and towards having reasoned, balanced opinions.

Nice arguments Mr.T but yet, it is not totally infallible…

“ A prediction of SP 12p does not take into account actual sustained prod growth released by GGS - now funded”.

When the reality is, only Phase 1, which covers just the inner most wells adjacent to the plant, have been funded for GGS.

IMO I don’t believe it is correct that anyone can claim the high ground in this argument which was centred on EF’s deletion from the bb for allegedly malicious intents, one of which was labelled as simply being ‘thoroughly wrong’.

We have all made errors in judgement, some perhaps more than others. But even then, the accolade for worst offender can only ever go to one person.. AM.
Yet there is still a massive gulf between making errors and malicious practices, which again imo can not be labelled on AM. He got caught out by a couple of technical hitches. And from what I read of EF, his greatest sin was boring the pants off everyone with his analysis of the bonds (including working out that the SL taking bonds as interest payments saves $500,000 per month in cash flow).

You have to concede those lofty opinions bud & try find some balance.
Just look at the Pi numbers..

12:45 Pilot.,
‘I don’t think getting Edmund Fitzgerald banned was a good idea..’
Recommended…. 16

I have no doubt that Blackstout is a respected poster. That he is diligent could be seen by the amount of effort that he put into his 3 pages of COPL analysis. That though was then summarised with a prediction of £6 a share and with there eventually only being 320M shares. So no matter how good the analysis, there is no catering for the AM factor.

And so far, it appears that the Only poster that was anywhere capable of doing that was the now departed EF.

With the shockingly weak retorts against his evaluations (& he openly asked for any evidence against his calcs) it then appears that there is a bb intent on clouding the main issues..