Member Info for dougb189

Jamie, the TG peeps do tend to stand out a mile & is not only noticeable by their low contribution inputs but they too also suffer from small percentage of pond dwellers. A breeding ground for cult followings. Lol but is easy to get swept along. Now find its easier doing one’s own independent thinking away from the noise. Good or bad but getting it written down is therapeutic and generally within a few minutes i can then usually spot if i am going wrong, lol. There are though some good TG researchers who go the extra mile. It then generally all comes out for the good of all.

I think AM has got the message loud & clear that peeps are losing patience. Expecting him to step up & maybe some intermediary’s on the news front.

Have to say though, was a damn clever move
posting the 100:1 consolidation & name change
at the start of a long weekend.

Gave peeps ample time to then argue & so disseminate.

The numbers show there’s plenty of peeps on the bb
who are perhaps grateful for Stas’s eloquent yet sometimes emotional posts laden with their clear conveyance of all the facts as leading up to the current ongoing ‘concern’.
And for which the various closing arguments of those posts then left most peeps considering that a name change & 100:1 consolidation, were perhaps not as gruesome as originally feared.

Pi’s are not the one’s apologising for their investments,
but they do have to own it.

1st April 2022 & the sp sitting at 32p.
AM releases an ill-prepared RNS with ‘broken financial covenants’ found written in its small print.
The sp drops c.30% to 22p & so losing c.£15M mc.
Next 12 months see the sp at avg. of c.16p
1st April 2023 & the sp crashes 66%. Losing c.£30M mc.
Off another poorly presented RNS update.

£45M squandered off of 2 poorly written RNS’s.

+265% increase In 2022 financial benefits for staff.

-85% decrease in Pi’s investments since April 1st 2022

So, who then is doing the apologising,
irrespective of wether this eventually comes good or not ?

Thanks Zyrte, reading that list then puts the spotlight firmly on Branding.

Initially thought that going for a name change was just to meet the local investors criteria eg that it is not ‘Overseas’ or that it is not from Trudeau’s side of the wall.

Then thought this might back-fire at the ii level, who will then only recognise a management team who have over-seen two previous demolitions. You can certainly benefit by having Oilexco on your CV and you could also benefit with having COPL’s name also on your CV but only if it is still being used as part of an ongoing new find.

The problem arises when a new name is being sought and the historical data shows that there has been two earlier demolitions.

A name change though tied in with a direct branding would then be clear of association to a history of serial demolitions.

Trujack, I’m guessing that further funds may indeed be sought, similar to your recap of the previous events after the last 100:1 dilution.

Imv it puts the field programme into two main phases, with us currently being near the start of 1st phase but which will then hopefully see the initial GGS installation & some decent flows.

The GGS Phase 1 will be completed off the existing bond arrangements ie with the $11.85M raised plus some small additional top ups.

Outwith a JV, then I suspect the main BH are possibly preparing for a bigger round of bonds say early next year. Which then requires them to make a decent trade with this current batch ie they need to make a decent profit but also that retail needs to make a decent profit. Prior imo to a possible ‘rinse & repeat’. If the trade is all one-sided, then the remaining few Pi’s will simply depart.

The US will be a fresh start for AM.
He’s currently valued for failure by the UK market.
I’d be walking out, if under similar treatment.

Hi Tiburn, I reckon it has to be for a future listing in the US.
You can then put an approximate timeframe of AGM + 90 days,
so again, possibly a mid -September step-change.

That was also the the timeframe given as a ‘stepping point’ in COPL market cap evaluations, as currently the Phase 1 GGS upgrade is due to be completed at some point during August (2 to 3 months from 29th April) and so it then gives 4 to 6 weeks for AM to nail the Fed Deep, with the funds then being provided by GGS Phase 1. Nail it such that the JV can then see what is there, maybe 6 - 7 delineation wells. The ‘stepping point’ would see COPL evaluations changing from Price to Sales ratio, PS x1.1 ($28M mc v $24M sales) to then changing to a PE ratio of maybe x3, courtesy of COPL starting to make profits.

Why consolidate is perhaps best answered by London’s poor reputation, for fledgling companies as per its well known poor reputation for technical companies. Guessing AM thinks the company can get better evaluated in the States. The yanks are generally more liberal towards their start-ups. I mentioned it to Craig of LSE about a month ago, that the difficult London market was also inclusive of the London ‘media’ forums, when I first suspected that AM might transition across. There is sadly very little that the moderators can do to clean up on the UK media sites. Is why I strongly argue for us to own up to the status quo and so we can then start finding positives, sufficient enough that we can then sell the programme & bring on new investors. Investors will come back in when retail get to know what is actually going on.

Why consolidate could though also be answered by gaining access to further funds eg. the elusive RBL, as this may be required if AM goes solo on 115 horizontals.

How much consolidation, and is dependent imv on mid-September figures.
If AM gets the initial GGS implemented & we start seeing c.2000 bopd from those 8 wells it could be enough for the MM’s to start using a PE x3 & at which point I think we are over the crux of the difficulties.

Without a decent PE & today was guessing at around a possible consolidation of 50:1
AM gets say a 33% increase in sales, takes in $33M (is 50% of analysts estimate EOY 2023)
then gives us an mc of $37.5M using a PS x1.1
Then I think we may see further bonds converted, on AM’s instructions,
& for which the MM’s will simply slide the sp horizontally, whilst the mc rises.

I don’t agree with Brel’s matriarchal approach, it’s simply not balanced & not logical, but he did nail the following..

“.. As things stand, it is verv hard to avoid the conclusion that this is just a lifestyle company with each new consolidation just basically hitting the reset for the next rounds of dilution…”

Just a wee bit cautious..
Q3 last year & you could set your clock for AM’s incoming news spins, off the expiration dates of the previous spins. Then begs the question, is that what we are seeing here : latest news flash ‘possible listing’ ‘possible name change’ ‘possible consolidation’ and then left for retail to try join the dots..

‘50% salary increases all round’ and so why then is the G&A spending,
such a concern to Anavio…. IF the JV was in the bag ?

(Quis custodiet… at 1%, is a big positive. In comparison. Nice one bud).

Voting….?

“…As of the date of the information circular, we intend to hold the Meeting in person as detailed above. As a shareholder of record as of the close of business on April 12th, 2023, you have the right to attend and vote at the Meeting as set out in the information circular..
.. Shareholders may use the following information to call in to the Meeting on May 30th 2023..”

‘shareholder of record as of April 12th..’

Interesting word salad, as then suggests that McCarthy Tetrault’s 5% holdings are not valid to be counted. Having been issued on the 14th..

Nice one Stas. Interesting find. With some interesting parallels.
And congratulations..
On your entry into LSE’s Most Recommended Poster listings.

At the expense of seeing your posts being swamped by the usual bb pondlifes,
then appears that most of the bb readership,
appreciates your rather analytical coverage.
Congrats.

‘major BOD changes’ & is worth taking a closer look at the boardroom..

As Stas keeps rather monotonously pointing out, is that AM went from regularly broadcasting that the RS results would soon be released throughout Q1 & Q2 2022, to then being effectively silenced by end of Q2.

That silence in the release of RS results commenced shortly after AM employed Bob Chenery as an NED to specifically chair the Reserves Committee. Bob’s daytime job is running Chenery & Dobson Resource Management Ltd, which specialises in the evaluation & management of oil & gas assets primarily controlled by investors, banks & other financial institutions.
It then appears that shortly after Bob’s arrival in the boardroom, that AM seems to have been silenced on his eager proposal to release the RS report. Simply put, but perhaps Bob did not want the ‘overly-technical RS report which the average investor will fail to understand’ to then get released ?

So there is a probability of a possible issue with interpreting the RS report even amongst the professionals (& I have to include AM in that group courtesy of his vast experience) especially when considering that Bob’s day-time job is regularly explaining similar field resources to the financial sector ? If he can regularly explain the technical & hence the probable numbers of expected resource value, with the suited accountants, then why is he not able to also explain the RS report ?

Anavio’s NED Tom Richardson, will likewise be looking for a clear & precise interpretation of all facets of COPL’s management strategies, inclusive of the rather disappointing news releases / PR, inclusive of possible shares consolidation & inclusive of a possible US listing.

In fairness it does appear that AM is trying to better the company.
Initially he took on Nomura’s ex-fund manager Nigel Little, who it was then thought could help promote access to an RBL. Goodbye Mr.Little.
Then on discovery of a significant oil play, took onboard Bob Chenery to perhaps again promote the stock. Now left thinking that Bob with his more up-to-date financial sector dealings has perhaps suggested the US financial sector for a possible listing &/or further funding. Outwith a JV then 115 horizontals still need to be funded.

Two directors in the boardroom now appear to be independent self-made men, non reliant on AM. It could be that there is a wee bit ‘leverage’ available to retail. As per earlier & impressed with the monthly news updates (guessing though that’s a “thank you Anavio”) and suspecting that this week will be dependent on how the story unfolds. Most sane peeps spooked by AM’s proposal of non-liquid £56.25 per share. Lol, but hopefully the adults will assist in explaining.

Has to be said that AM’s recent new updates is a big improvement with a monthly update now being given for TWO consecutive months.. i was impressed.
Then thought wow, he’s definitely on a roll, when the monthly flow rates got posted TWO days early.

Lol, then waking up to his most recent news flashes & thinking wtf?! Throws a whole new perspective on the development but as many also have pointed out, there’s a definite buzz floating about & it aint just from the Pavlov frogs whose auto reflexes then see loud pond-life croaks every time a cynical or negative post gets aired.
Most peeps recognising that AM has been a bit of a **** but also recognising the support he’s getting from the legal team & from the main BH. Should be an interesting new month.

“1000-1 share consolidation”
will be AM winding up neurotic Pi’s.
Good chance imv that we could see 100:1.
£5 or $6.25.
Then opens up US markets.

Was nonsense posted earlier about a minimum sp being needed to stay in the UK market. Someone had forgotten or not researched that we had previously had an sp of c.0.05p prior to 2021.

Guessing a move is on the cards :

“.. Nasdaq Capital Market companies are required to meet a net income standard of at least $750,000, a minimum public float of 1,000,000 shares, at least 300 shareholders, and a share bid price of at least $4 (with certain exceptions…”

The clue might be in the very tenuous limitations, outwith FCA guidelines, that have been put on shareholders to now get their vote accredited.

Guessing, that AM has had enough of the UK market controlling the mc.

Was raised on Reddit over 2 years ago that COPL who as a Canadian company, were unusually doing their accounts in US $, could suggest a possible US listing.

To get into the main US markets then usually requires a minimum sp.
$4 Nasdaq ?
$8 IPO’s ?

As ever and it will be down to watching the main BH.

You have to factor in all probabilities Bob,
but with Anavio only converting the 6 bonds, which were done last year,
Then the probability of them suddenly changing their strategy is pretty remote.
The field setbacks was primarily from the winter storms,
& after they blew over, the various bond holders were then content enough
To again jump back onboard to gain more bonds.

Lol, but the wee candle at the end of this very Very very long tunnel,
Is indeed still flickering.

Tuesday last week, the same day as the $4M conversion.
48,959,603 shares issued from 20 bonds.
Each bond then saw 2,447,980 shares.

The MM’s then facilitated a transfer to VIP client :

10.39.19 @ 5.7552p x 1,447,980
16.08.17 @ 5.75p x 1,000,000
16.08.50 @ 5.753p x 2,447,980

Anyone know of anyone who could purchase bonds direct from the MM..?

Anyone spot the ‘transfer’ of two complete bonds to a 3rd party….?

That was also my thinking Pilot, that they’ve converted during August last year when $0.2001 to then check their exit.

Reference tech crew, from earlier:
From Reddit early 2021.

• As part of the deal XOP will retain the technical team of Atomic, who will join their own technical team. Atomic's technical team has the experience designing, installing and running the gas injection equipment, which needs to be duplicated at Cole Creek. It also has been mentioned by CEO Arthur Millholland that a project they are working on in West Africa would also use the same techniques and the technical team could be leveraged for that as well..

Old news but still intrigued as to the ‘fracking skills’ being used abroad.

As per Pilot’s post, it was also posted on this bb several months ago,
that we knew Anavio had converted 6 bonds.

And I do believe it was today’s main ‘antagonist’ (lol, but someone needs a chill pill?!) who then participated in the deletion of those posts that factually highlighted the status of the bonds.

Peeps need to seriously chill with that delete button.

It might sound negative that the main BH have converted & sold 6 bonds,
but it makes good sense to test the systems that then return the capital employed.
Not bad from a total of 144 ?

And 27.9% premium on 2024/25 and 25% premium on 2027/28 principle figures is not to be sniffed at. For starters.