Member Info for dougb189

‘near term’ as defined by SL..

“…COPL has the full support of its existing Senior Credit Facility lender who provided: (1) a waiver of 22 March 2023 liquidity covenant; and (2) a 6 months asset and leverage ratio covenant waiver on the back of this Convertible Financing while it continues its debt refinancing and joint venture discussions for the development of its Wyoming assets…”

Why do peeps expect a JV/RBL within 10 days of the SL then granting a covenant waiver of 6 months duration for AM to eventually facilitate a reasonable outcome…?

Guessing that we will see favourable terms being issued to the O&G sector.

Bloomberg

Oil surged at the week’s open after OPEC+ unexpectedly announced crude output cuts that threaten to tighten the market, delivering a fresh inflationary jolt to the world economy and irking the White House.

West Texas Intermediate soared as much as 8%, the biggest intraday move in more than a year, and traded at $79.81 a barrel at 11:20 a.m. in Singapore time, while in wider markets the dollar advanced with Treasury yields.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia pledged on Sunday to make the cuts from next month that will exceed 1 million barrels a day, with Saudi Arabia leading the way with 500,000 barrels. Traders had expected OPEC+ to hold output steady. The shock move came outside the group’s scheduled timetable for reviewing the market and members’ supply.

Rather full-on at work Mr.S so I’m still way way behind on reading the reports & the interpretations of.

I’ve also wondered the whereabouts of the new expected bod but glad to see AM did not try to cram too much news onto the EOY reports…would be good to see Liz take a more active role.

Most peeps reckoning that an input by BH will/has tempered AM’s wilder habits & several good peeps reckoning this should finally start to see some blue skies, albeit not quite as fast as some would like.

Finished lunchtime today & batteries are v.low so will be a few days before able to fully catch up here & a few others.

JPMorgan are looking after CNOOC’s American interests.
Was reported they were targeting c.$2B deal to then vacate the US.
JPM have recently stated though that it is not necessarily a ‘cut & run’ and that if terms are not good that CNOOC will stay. Chinese concern is still centred around Ukraine, if it flares up further & US retaliation on the business fronts.

CNOOOC was perhaps the best interpretation for the total clampdown on any JV news as is covering both economical & political sensitivities. Would have expected some details to have leaked out if it was a US partner tied into any JV.

The excitement that the above would generate, would then have us all looking very very closely again at OPL.

Any change in board management needs to notify market.
The lack of, then perhaps follows TW’s colourful explanation.

And at which point I’d be further contemplating other explanations, including a ceiling c.16p which is where the sp soon found itself after last April’s calAMitous Financial Report release, ie. today’s 52 week high 34p but next week. Hardly a risk assessment, with a 200% ceiling, but does then generate an extra angle to possible outcomes.

12 bonds missing ?

Anavio now with 59 of 2024-27 & 79 of 2025-28.
Originally was 45 in each.
6 from 2024 leaving 39. +20 from 27/03
6 from 2025 leaving 39. +20 @03/01 & +20 @27/03.

Not too shabby then, selling off 6 from each batch.
Perhaps just testing their exit / share conversion lines ?

52 week high… 34p ?!

Lol, if only Carlsberg did hedge funds

For those of us sceptical of AM’s words then the big ticket is the production / revenue updates. Any RBL or JV is then a bonus so is outwith any risk assessment.

As per Mr.T’s estimated ‘10,000 bopd this year’
His calcs include JV paying 3 horizontals /2000 bopd each.
So is 4000 bopd from COPL solo endeavours, EOY 2023.
Which several good peeps also seem to have formulated.

Inputting the extra funds that AM can possibly get access to including an additional $7M from BH & including $11M from the 133M warrants, there is then a possible extra $18M for the next stage of development (Q3-Q4?) after the current $11.8M (principle $14.8M) has been utilised.
It could then be that we achieve Mr.T’s estimated 10,000 bopd by the end of this year, but without a JV (for those of us sceptical of AM’s words).

For assisting with risk assessment , then i cross-refer the external analysts :
The analysts have this pegged at $64.4M for 2023 turnover.
That then works out at an average 2,500 bopd @ $70/bbl
Jan 1070 bopd, Mar “1700 bopd”, june-july seeks c.2500 bood,
and then needs Q4 c.4000 bopd, to meet the analysts target of 2500 bopd / year 2023. So quite doable, if the plumbing gets sorted on BFU &/or Fed Deep’s 6 wells produce.
Which then sees significant chunk (c.$17M) of the SL loan being paid off. Reducing current risk significantly.

Any production updates that then see this inch towards that 2500 bopd target by June/July, will then be very significant.

After trading hours on Friday.
Will sadly though be last year’s figures
as included in the 2022 Financial Report.
Guessing, that is not the ‘production figures’ that you want.

Next RNS, hopefully of a new director & hopefully inclusive of progress report plus some update ‘production figures’.

Mc., I’m kinda hoping that we get to the 5-figure production within 12 months.

Lol, my sentiments also.

Best kept to discussing at the weekends.
Unless of course you are on of the faithful,
& getting up fresh & early on a Sunday morning,
Is only to be used for singing praises to the Messiah .,

As there has been such a polite request though,
then hey, let me help. .!

So….someone asking politely for data on the bonds .?!

Let’s just then politely answer that query & recap on the Bond :
‘Bonds promise to pay a fixed rate of interest for a fixed period before returning the nominal capital value’.

So.. Let’s just start with that clue on ‘fixed interest’
then with just a wee bit thinking outside the box
(outside the pond for some perhaps)
& let’s consider…. Say… double digit Inflation ?

Maybe look at, say… CPI, The Consumer Price Index ?
One of Several measures of inflation.

The current annual rate of increase in the CPI, being 10.4%
which then works out that the purchasing power of initial capital,
will then be 50% within 6 years & 10 months, compared to what it is now..

Getting the picture yet..
Perhaps some further posts highlighting inflationary measures, might help ?
I’ll await the further polite replies..

Next update will hopefully be the notice of appointment
of a new non-executive director, affiliated to the main BH.

There were two main colourful points that TW used in his argument against COPL :

1. “.. The release yaks on about how the bond holders can if their holding exceeds a certain level nominate someone to the board. But that would compromise their ability to forward sell shares and convert. It is just not how death spiral providers work. At is a spoof. There is more chance of me shagging Cheryl Cole by lunchtime today than there is of these death spiral johnnies taking a major equity stake in Canadian..”
2. ‘..there will be a blizzard of confetti..’

We have yet to see a blizzard, apart from several blowing across the Wyoming field, and fingers crossed, we get to see some new leadership on the board.

When looking at any investment i always read up on what TW opinions are. So far & he has been the most accurate forecaster. I usually though find several fault with his opinions, as i’ve already openly explained to the bb.

Just a sad reflection of some of the LTH that can not own their stocks unless seen thru rose tinted specs.

The numbers being quoted for outstanding bonds was incorrect. It then appears that some LTH can not handle factual data being posted or of the several admin hiccups that AM had released to the market then being posted on Their bb.

I kept quiet on the current CPI v RPI v Interest rate v negative rates of return. I should then maybe work on a further wee post to help those looking at All the variables..
Costa first though.

Not sure if these figs will display aligned or gobbledygook…
Last line shows Net Borrowing reductions 2023 @ 22.4M & 2024 @ 2.21M

===========

FORECASTS$ millions unless stated
Year 2022 2023 2024
Turnover 16.3 +577.7% 64.6 +297.4% 80.4 +24.4%
EBITDA 6.89 44.9 +550.9% 49.7 +10.8%
EBIT 13.0 27.1 +108.7% 31.0 +14.3%
Pre-tax profit -11.93 20.5 23.4 +13.7%
Post-tax profit. -11.93 16.2 18.5 +13.7%
EPS (¢) - - -
Dividend (¢) - - -
Capex 29.0 +33.7% 17.5 -41.41% 17.0 -2.85%
Free cash flow. -11.28 24.2 27.8 +14.8%
Net borrowing 39.0 +29.5% 22.4 -42.60%. 2.21 -90.16%

With the SL at $39M, the analysts then forecast that SL payments of
$22M EOY 2023 & $2M EOY 2024 could be facilitated
from a forecasted* turnover $64.4M for 2023.
(*Their estimated 2022 turnover $16.3M already appears to be low, as we know that 2022, Q2 & Q3 turnover, was $7M each quarter)
If using $70/bbl, the calcs show that to meet the estimates,
needs only to be an averaged 2500 bopd this year.

That 2023 calc of an averaged 2500 bopd is surely an achievable target,
1070 bopd January, followed by a quoted ‘1700 bopd’ March,
perhaps 2500 bopd June / July, then needs c.4000 bopd Q4.
Which sounds v.doable, weather Gods, plumbers & teamsters allowing.

2023 then could perhaps sees the majority of the SL paid off IF the bopd then hits above an average 2500. So…Could then be in position for purchasing remaining bonds for $36.2M early next year 2024, if the planned developments are brought to fruition.

The initial Initial Conversion Price was July 2022 but suspect that the new warrants are now on that second Initial Conversion Price of 6.75p.

News coming v.soon, but certainly there’s a wee bit trepidation.

LTH are all earnestly hoping on news of 1 of the big 3 inputs ;
JV &/or RBL &/or decent production-revenue update.

Shorts though will be rubbing their hands this week for :
February flow rates &/or 2022 Financial Report &/or further BH conversions.
Any or all being dropped with no explanations, no clarity given & bolstered by the further disappearance of AM.

Last weekend’s attendance by knowledgeable poster highlighting the possible prospect of 1.3B shares in circulation was then embarrassingly met by some rather lame LTH mug punters sticking their heads in the sand, whilst wailing the theme tune to Titanic.

Peeps need to start highlighting those dark areas.

One week later & eventually last weekend’s hystericals have slowly realised the reality that 1.3B shares might be theoretically possible but is most likely improbable from an ongoing partner/s committed already for c.$33.6M of hard cash investments with an additional $7M being made available if needed, then being centred as initially suggested, on a pump&dump campaign.

Relying though on (1) AM to clarify the quoted 1700 bopd &/or of any production improvements prior to the February flow results or the 2022 Financial Reports is highly unlikely, as is (2) an honest & open approach from LTH, addressing those dark areas ahead of when they are due, is again similarly v.unlikely.
Which then raises the question, will we see a third Initial Conversion Price..

Then gives 133M warrants.
$11M then raised from the warrants, in addition to :

Principle $13.6M / $14.8M plus additional $7M if reqd.
x 80%
Gives cash $10.9M / $11.8M plus additional $5.6M if reqd.

A possible $27.5M / $28.4M then available,
Which puts good strength back on the table.

There was a good post after the last big RNS screw-up (Feb’s calAMitous update on total shares issued + weather problems + financial hiccups) which strongly suggested that AM had performed this update, courtesy of a possible JV requirement ie. to get the paperwork property in order. This made sense at the time as a directive from the FCA seemed rather lame ie. they have enough on their plate as it is…let sleeping dogs lie.

Still reckon though that there is further paperwork to be clarified :

6th Jan RNS gives accurate data, & cross referenced with 3rd Jan additional 20M of 2025 bonds against 4th Nov.2022 figures, then all adds up neatly. But then the figures somewhat falls apart 7th March. Looks like should be 181 bonds outstanding.

Then the new rates given 20th March :
$200,000 conversion price $0.0817 (6.75p)
2,447,980 shares / each security
So is a total outstanding x 181 bonds = 443,084,455 OS
& of which it seems most are in the secure hands of the main BH.

Lol. Then just leaves a question mark on those warrant figures,
And that 3rd Jan mention of a rather ambiguous
“…higher strike on new warrants of 18p vs 16.75p on July warrants..”

July warrants.. 54,792,590 @16.75p
March warrants “65,850,662 (potentially increasing to 70,257,026 at closing) new warrants have been issued and amendments made to the Warrants issued previously”

Excluding the potential increase to 70.257M
Then gives 120,643,252 warrants.

But is this inclusive of the Jan 3rd “new warrants of 18p” ?!

COPL’s word salads are simply mind blowing.

Reckon that peeps should think hard about an AGM / EGM (10% required).

The administrative paperwork is a consistent nightmare, the latest hiccup as below which then has most reasonable Pi’s struggling to calculate exactly how many bonds have been converted & how many bonds are still outstanding.

The following excerpts from the RNS files, then show on 6th Jan that there are 64 of the 2025 bonds still outstanding which is then followed by the next RNS pertaining to the 2025 bonds posted on 7th March (17 Feb conversion was 2024 bonds) which then highlighted that with ONE bond conversion that the outstanding total (64 on 6th Jan) was now only 43…

They have misplaced 20 of the 2025 bonds.
Minor hiccup but which again speaks volumes of the inconsistency in the data being presented to UK investors via RNS.

==================
Fri, 6th Jan 2023 07:00
“Following these conversions, a total of eight 2024 Bonds and nineteen 2025 Bonds have had their principal amount converted into Shares.. 
2024 Convertible Bonds principal amount outstanding: $11.0 million (55 bonds)
2025 Convertible Bonds principal amount outstanding: $12.8 million (64 bonds)”
==================
Fri, 17th Feb 2023 07:00
“Following this conversion, a total of thirteen 2024 Bonds have had their principal amount converted into Shares..
 2024 Convertible Bonds principal amount outstanding: $10.0 million (50 bonds)”
==================
Tue, 7th Mar 2023 07:00
“…on March 6, 2023 pursuant to a conversion of $200,000 principal of 2025 Bond by one Bondholder of the July 2022 Bond Issue..
 Following this conversion, a total of twenty 2025 Bonds have had their principal amount converted into Shares..
 2025 Convertible Bonds principal amount outstanding: $8.6 million (43 bonds)”

=================

I’d be looking at sending a very strong message to AM by voting off the director, Secretary Ms. Faralee.A.C.

& I’m again finding a wee bit trepidation knowing that some heavy RNS’s are due to start arriving this week. Lol, but fingers are crossed that the BH proof read it first.