Member Info for dougb189

300k appears to be an end of day round-up by the LSE

13.03.23
17:14:01
5.75
GBX
10,000
575.00
Off-Book
P
ECHO
XOFF
13.03.23
16:38:13
5.63
GBX
300,000
16,875.00
Off-Book
P
XLON
XLON

Once the ball starts rolling, kinda difficult to fathom how the BH will play it.

Smaller BH appear to be collecting shares
& earlier estimate was c.30M could be available to them.
The SL appear to be collecting shares,
& previously was 5% NAV, currently 6% OS, suspect they could soon be on 7%.

Both the above then get absorbed, so we start clearing well above 10p.

Anavio & AM seem to have formed a good partnership.

Was good times Antha, i enjoyed the occasional giggle down the pub. The TR1 was in, so CH knew who he was speaking too & anything relevant was passed onto the bb (I didn't make my pennies day-trading or by shafting fellow LTH investors as per OAT in LGO).
Where I misbehaved was with the guidelines ; you are Only recommended to notify the market of significant holdings. So I did the initial one. The giggle down the pub was that at one point I then held c.10% of Slovenia's oil resources. Can't remember what the metrics but my target was 3p, & was in v.heavy at an avg.1p, so it wasn't any of CH's doing, it was more the state of the macroeconomics & the skullduggery by the Russians opposing any competition to their gas pipelines.
Dilution then came after.

AM is nothing at all like AST's ex-CEO, CH.
who then got shafted from Gazprom's influence on Slovenia.gov
Colin answered all emails & explained /reinforced what had been published in the RSN's.

“… well if this hits 4p I will be buying big because I had more word late last week on good news coming..”

So the “good news coming” just ain’t good enough,
to buy at the current 5.5p ???!

Just be cautious peeps.

‘Placing again if they are lucky at 4p’

Look on the bright side, in 3 weeks time you can either :
stick 20,000 shares into your ISA at £1 each, or..
stick 500,000 shares into your ISA at 4p each.

Lol, anyone got a snow making machine.

Thanks BWFC., ‘oat’ aka onceatrader aka John, had a very distinctive & open style of writing inc. retiring to the gym every morning as the trading desks opened. Came across as a genuine investor right up until his access to the emailgate, when he then changed positions, becoming a trader again & lying to all.
Was not part of the inside crowd, was just fortunate to have picked up c.14.5M at avg. 1p (DL’s REM gave a 10-bagger the previous year, so just started following him closely (v.careful though, as he P&D’d recently on Wishbone)) which meant i told the bb i was partying when it got to 6.9p then vacating. Got wildly accused of then shorting it (done by hedge fund manager based Gibraltar) & the bb turned v.v.nasty. The emailgate started a month or so after this. Many auld geezers hadn’t sliced on the way up. Was fortunate with my 6.9p target as the sp then peaked after at c.7.5p & I was just never interested in holding on for the “pumped 10p party”.

Fair to say though, unlike NR, AM keeps quite a v.tight ship.
And likewise be very careful of those advertising ‘chat-line’ access to CEO’s.

Thanks John, appreciated. Wouldn’t worry too much about the noise on here, it’s generally all pretty harmless. The small group of LTH who then use coercive control to delete any negative posts are detrimental to all investors. Most just don’t realise it.

There was a poster c.10 years back, a namesake of yours but maybe a decade older than yourself, retired City broker & who was generally very very helpful to all on the bb. Until the stock turned turtle, and was then revealed he had obtained some inside info during the stock’s downturn but had then posted to support his position whilst he exited. The end result was that there was a few bricks thrown through some windows. I was the daft eejit before the crash, foolishly dancing on the tables as the pf hit the big numbers, telling all that I was then vacating, so consequently was accused of crashing the stock, with similar threatening messages being received. Lol, but is certainly best keeping a balanced viewpoint…No silly rainbows from me.

Thanks Mr.S, will be quite apparent that I don’t post for ticks but i hope i give something for the sincere peeps to think about it.

Might have been a wee bit fippant in earlier post when commenting on how the SL will download their 6% share holding on an early rise (me reading up on risk analysis this weekend!). They will download But there Might be a target which peeps might find useful ; initially the bonus was 5% (now 6%) of the NAV & they then opted to accept 5%(6%) of the sp. They calculated that the sp will be at a good premium to the NAV. The NAV is an estimated c.$380m ?
So… pretty close to £1/share and then SL have added a premium to their calcs.

Not sure though bud on when the rocket emoji’s will appear.

That’s a fair assessment Fastfood, that the SL arrangement is suffocating.

But as per Eazy/RBM post, there does appear to be an agreement between the SL & BH to attain a beneficial common goal, from a successful Copl development, which has a few teething issues inc. snow drifts.

Can already be seen that the SL throttled back on the cash float that Copl needs to keep, when it got reduced to $2M in January.
Guessing that this is then banked partly as insurance ; all O&G operators have to put aside a cash amount of several millions in case of the unexpected eg. oil spills etc. Could just imagine we then hit a gusher & AM lights up a ciggie…

Which came 1st, the chicken or the egg;

Atomic Senior successfully extracted 1400bopd at 2000psi
AM then had problems with the plumbing at 10,000psi..
‘beyond the control of the company’ then seems shallow.

Bond Holders then commit $19.7M with no insurance??
With no priority on the assets if the company turns turtle??

Which can though be covered, by convertible arbitrage;
The long position in the convertible bond,
Is covered by a short position in the equity,
And for which there is currently no notifiable shorts (>0.5%).

So how does one then cover a $19.7M cash investment ?

The cost of 6% dilution is insignificant to Copl but it will impact on any upper projected values of sp. The SL & the main BH are currently playing it by the book, they’ve invested to gain the interest fee payments whilst insuring their investments against the assets. Is only recently that the SL has opted to take the final 5% bonus fee in shares (now 6% due to 1st broken covenant). Would be expected that they then cash on an early uplift & the 6% volumes involved will see sentiment curtailed.

Could say that the lower figure 6p would not be applicable; for the SL to be paid off then requires either RBL, JV or AM going it alone. Any of the 3 then paying off the SL, means that the current 6p has been rerated, significantly. How much dilution that AM brings if he goes it alone is hard to say but guessing several peeps might then suggest, don’t do it.

Will be interesting to see if the expected March bond tap, likely to occur this week, has a new revised conversion rate. The initial rate 15.5p has finished & the most recent rate of 13.2p now seems unrealistic. Which suggests that if AM is contemplating going it alone, we then get diluted out of existence.

It saves £0.00
We still owe the SL c.$42M + interest for the loan.
& irrespective of what the sp is, 6p or £6,
the 6% shares float that the SL receive when the loan is finished,
will only be at the cost of a wee bit extra dilution for Copl OS.

Thanks for clarifying Mr.S.
Reckon you could be right with the SL being paid off soon.

Wouldn't be too fazed by them getting 'a lower settlement than anticipated' as the c.$42M outstanding loan will have accrued set interest fees + their initial warrants. If they walk away with 6% OS (possibly 7% if the latest covenant was broken) then that will be on the news of a better financial backing eg. RBL which should then see them gain.

Appreciated bud.

Lol, soz Mr.S but a wee KISS of the Glasgow variety :

“Not many shenanigans between Gambino final sacrifices ...”
Think I’ve got the ‘mafia-based financier’ who I originally thought was the senior lender (now not so sure) but I’m totally lost with the ‘final sacrifices’.
Lol. But are we expecting a horse’s head in AM’s bed ?

“They must be smarting at exiting at such a low VWAP...1%”
Are they (SL?) exiting ??!
A low VWAP plays into the hands of the BH.. are they the ‘Gambino’ ?!
Only known reference to 1%, is as the figure that COPL got fined for breaking the financial covenant ie. the SL picked up an extra 1% allocation of shares, when the loan is paid off. Currently they receive 6% and half expecting them to receive another 1% in a few days time, courtesy of the expensive snow clearing ops.

“The sly Old fox...”
Guessing is a reference to that 4D chess player that many peeps refer to, which kinda makes sense, assuming that the 4th dimension is time, & the well known fact that AM does not operate to any of our time clocks…

lol, but I'd take $100M in cash for a 50% JV
plus all the hardware needed to develop 118 horizontal wells.

It make sense that as any good results/ discoveries are made,
That any financial or JV participation
is then reassessed if we are holding a stronger hand.

Stas’s chronological coverage of the RBL announcements,
Is good but then becomes rather narrow focused on any reasoning behind delays.

I wouldn't be toooo despondent.
Estimated there may still be 9 bonds in loose hands..

The MM's then dropped it c.16:05 on almost no volume.
was similar to the last 'c'.

& IF the JV is progressing, then makes sense for the BH to collect shares.

similar pattern duster to the last....'c'

Another conversion ?