Member Info for dougb189

'art going by himself'

Not convinced that any hedge fund would follow that & the risks then associated.

lol. that's a fair call Base.,
you lose your argument and then resort to some petty insinuations.
knuckle dusters at dawn, I guess...

would disagree that it is "simples''.
taking out the 4 main incidents,
then the charts show a fairly steady SMA 20.
there was no 'significant' decline whilst peeps waited on production updates.
& even when production fell, there was a good support level.

Ooops.. my apologies duster, that should read DB (the welsh variant). lol a good spot.

Both Mr.T & DH are both wrong in identifying ‘solo’ incidents
as then each being responsible for having destroyed the sp.

Statistically & over the last 12 months there have been 4 damaging plays on the sp
*damaging equates >10% drop (fig. used in US for then closing the market).

1 April 2022, sp dropped 32% from 32p to 22p, on poorly presented RNS.

22 July 2022, sp dropped 25% from 21.95p to 17p, on bond finance news.

3 Jan 2023, sp dropped 15% from 19p to 16.25p, on extra tapped bond finance.

1 Feb 2023, sp dropped 65% from 16.2p to 5.7p, on poorly presented RNS.

DH is perhaps more correct though, as the initial drop seen on 22 July 2022, when peeps were expecting an RBL & instead got introduced to bond conversions aka “death spiralling” (TW’s words & who has by far been the most accurate of any forecasters) and over the period of 24 trading days then saw the sp drop to 12p on August 25th. And at which point AM bought & the sp support at 16p was formed.

A look at the COPL website is perhaps quite revealing.
There is only 1 other director named, the 300+ year old Ludwig,
& under ‘Executive Management’ there is only 1 entry…. AM.

Now ask, Why are a decent hedge fund getting involved in a 1-man outfit
(better described as Mickey Mouse).

& again it Points towards a JV.

Shareholders cannot easily boot a CFO out, the AGM is for the election or re-election of directors, of which Ryan is not on the board.

If sufficient vote’s are available, then take aim at the resolutions, primarily the remuneration packages… AM has only ever achieved an increase in mc via dilutions (sp generally stagnant) & the remuneration packages will see any options packages kept at c.10% of mc, irrespective of the horizontal slide in sp after each dilution.
Normally 2 directors are appointed to look after remunerations.
If peeps wish to flex some muscle then signal to the board that you intend to vote one or two directors off the board. Then you can perhaps force the BH to play / show their cards, as they would then need to facilitate a TR1 to keep Pi’s at bay.

Suspecting that Liz priority will be the flaring presentation.

May then have to wait a while till we ever see competence arriving in the PR / communications dept.

Even some of TW's peers reckon that the JV is already in the bag.
Local big players, will imo lean towards the Contingent Resources as a rough guide.
The earlier post about O&G only chasing P1/2/3 was not totally accurate.
Some O&G fields have been acquired with only C1/2/3.
AM though is now seeking to get some of the resource classed as proven / probables.

Suspect it is then the RBL who are asking for further DD,
which is what we are now seeing.

3rd Jan 2023 RNS :

Amendment to Senior Credit Facility

"...The liquidity covenant has been amended to a 30-day average of $2 million and requisite permissions for the funding of COPL America's first quarter of 2023 work programme and use of the Convertible Tap proceeds have been received..."

MONTHLY PROGRESS REPORT – February 2023

"..The Liquidity Covenant will be measured based on average cash of $2.5 million from the period January 15, 2023 to March 14, 2023...."

lol. typical Ryan..
30-day avg. $2M
3-month avg. $2.5M

Wouldn't worry too much on Senior lender getting cold feet.
Not whilst Ryan has them sitting up front on the gravy train.
'very real possibility' ?
& can't see the BH getting cold feet.
Not until we have had 2 to 3 months of clear weather.

Broken covenant previously cost $1.1M fine & $0.9M worth of shares (1%).
Had AM then bothered to try explain the small print,
we would not have seen the 33% write-off on m.c. as per last year's 1st April RNS.

13. ....The Liquidity Covenant will be measured based on average cash of $2.5 million from the period January 15, 2023 to March 14, 2023...

lol.

March Report :
Senior lender acquires another 1% share holdings, bringing new total to 7%.

Bob, once the news arrives eg. post-Winter flow rates (should see 10 to 20% increase) &/or the 3 new wells producing 100 bold each &/or a JV &/or an RBL, then there will be a nice step-change upwards in the sp.

The MM's though will have to try work out how many shares might be converted,
and for which I suspect they might already be pricing in,
which again then suggests a nice wee rise.

Had to do a survival course many moons ago for a possible crashing in the jungle
& they all said use the revolver to shoot the pilot.
I've said many many times that Ryan should be taken outside and....
you get the picture. Enjoy the drams though.

Altag, there is no weighted average.

The cost to the BH was the principle amount of $200,000.
For which they received 1,263,423 shares,

The second batch of shares of 1,923,980 were 'freebies'
ie. an interest payment for their *cough* hard work.
& the 6.06p was just the calculation (VWAP) used in converting that 'interest' payment.

They then picked up 3,187,403 shares in total for that principle amount of $200,000
And for which their capital costs had already received their bonuses.
*Cash raised from BH c.$19.5M gave a principle amount c.$25.2M
so almost c.29.9% bonus before any profit taking on the market.
hence 5.23p from the principle amount $200,000 / 3,187,403 shares.

as earlier, reckon we may get away with just 9 further bond conversions
And it does appear that so far, the 'minor' BH's are keeping those.

Unnd, that's true & so I was mystified as to why today's RNS stated
there are only 43 bonds outstanding from the 2025 issue.
Then appears that the additional 20 bonds from 3rd Jan are classed as '2025 tapped bonds'.

So yet another COPL word-salad that peeps have to try decipher.

*that are in 'minor' BH's hands.

Anavio's original holdings were
42 bonds from 2024 issue plus
42 bonds from 2025 issue.

can then be seen that the numbers still outstanding (50 x 2024) & (43 x 2025)
could suggest that Anavio are still holding.
Then leaves 9 bond securities theatre in 'minor' BH's hands.

No lying, there is though a probable scenario,
which states that the majority of the converted bonds are being held,
otherwise the daily volumes would be a lot higher.

The facts that we do now know are :

1. that one bond security of principle amount $200,000 then generates 3,187,403 shares
which then requires any sp above 5.23p for the BH to breakeven.

2. the 2024 convertible bonds still outstanding are 50
3. the 2025 convertible bonds still outstanding are 43.

Shouston, no bud, there are still several bond holders.

The interesting bit, is that I suspect it is the UK players (Anavio are in via offshore account) who have cashed in for shares (not all are selling).

The magic number bud, is 32.

3littlepigs.,

Further to our correspondence yesterday on a probable outcome for total shares, i will (after vacating costa) then post further conflict-ion on what is or is not probable, as per yet another convoluted Copl word-salad, issued last year, on the bonds dilution effect.
Simply put, they have moved the goalposts.