Member Info for dougb189

Agree with that Tiburn, It should give a lot of confidence to the market, seeing the calibre of player now coming onboard.

As earlier though, if the timing of a 2nd consolidation was indeed known, then would have expected anyone ‘with an understanding on various aspects including consolidations’ to then perhaps have waited on a better entry.

Nobody likes to admit errors in their timings.

& hence why it might then be Anavio who make the next move if Mr.Gooze is outwith the loop and so could perhaps be a wee bit concerned on consolidations. The ball will now be in Anavio’s court and it could just be, that it is now they who are spooked by the appearance of a large holder. They likely have most to gain from any future consolidation.

Guessing he’s down c.£40k on the spreadbet but also guessing the pockets are deep and so that ain’t a big problem. For that risk it then suggests someone is comfortable & that it will be a lot lot higher than just 7p..

Robbie played it well but as he said, with the Wi-Fi connection on the rig then intermittently on & off , it was a bit too much seeing his pf jump up & down in £50k steps.

It’s looking good Bob. Some serious players now on the table.

Will be interesting to hear Mr.Goozee’s thoughts on the upcoming votes.

A wee bit unfortunate perhaps with the timings,

Equity having been acquired on the 25th,

& then the 1000:1 announcement 3 days later…

13 million votes would certainly make a strong comment.

Will be interesting to see if Anavio respond.

Bold move Mr.Goozee. Well done sir. Guessing that answers the earlier :

RE: Bonds25 Apr 2023 21:22

Tuesday last week, the same day as the $4M conversion.

48,959,603 shares issued from 20 bonds.

Each bond then saw 2,447,980 shares.

The MM’s then facilitated a transfer to VIP client :

10.39.19 @ 5.7552p x 1,447,980

16.08.17 @ 5.75p x 1,000,000

16.08.50 @ 5.753p x 2,447,980

Anyone know of anyone who could purchase bonds direct from the MM..?

“… SL debt is serviced, relations are good (albeit at the expense of 8% of shares on completion)..”

8% of 412M giving 32M+ shares on completion

Whilst debt is being serviced by further conversions covering the c.$500K a month interest payments. The most recent payment then shows an equivalent of 6M shares each month to service that debt. Within 6 months they have then doubled that original 8% holding..

“… Not that I believe they will consolidate to this ratio if they do decide to consolidate…”

Where’s the logic in allowing that ?

A well recorded history of management mistakes with a significant majority centred on poorly presented RNS’s and in your wisdom, you then opt to allow the same team, control over the amount of consolidation that they then deem suitable ? So why is AM not explaining to the market and putting a suitable figure on possible consolidation requirements ? Lol, but worse of all, why do you not seek to put a risk assessment on the outcome other than ‘I don’t believe..’ that it might happen ?

One can perhaps assume bud from your monicker, that (a) you were led blindly up the tourist path on Everest & that (b) you then suffered cerebral edema damage during your visit ?

That’s a wee bit ambitious Pilot. Would be happy to meet half- way but both sets of figures have external influences: Factor in 940bopd hedged at $52 & Cnooc with 15%.

The ‘2k without GGS’ was from August 2021. The ongoing ‘anomalies’ in AM’s RNS releases had suggested a 25% increase in flow rate over the last 2 weeks of August, from 2200 bopd on 17 Aug RNS to a reported 2720 bopd on 31 Aug RNS. A month later and Mr.T had sourced the WOG data which showed August had an average 1996 bopd. I am hopeful that the reported ‘field operating at 6000psi’ was correct. Then suggests that as we sweep 10,000psi east to west across the initial 8 wells, that any pressure leaks into surrounding wells should be safely absorbed & maybe result with further additional well improved flow rates.

If we then get a “eureka” moment either via a JV materialising or finding our own solution to Fed Deep’s technical difficulties, then suspecting that the figures will be off the charts. At the moment though & the only figure coming over the horizon that appears to be off the charts, is that call for 1000:1 consolidation.

Being evaluated off a PE ratio will come when we start clearing some profit.

Currently it appears that the MM’s evaluate us from PS ratio pegged at x1.1

5000 bopd within a few months could be a bit optimistic but suspecting there is a good chance we should see at least be clearing 3000 bopd. From the RS it was initially suggesting 5000 bopd from the BFSU but later assessments suggested 7000 bopd from using the uprated psi. This is a 465% increase on the current 1240 bopd from the c.36 wells. We are then looking at 8 wells being initially uprated by GGS towards the 465% increase, so giving c.2300 bopd across the BFU. Within the same period & should also see the CC wells x7 online at c.125 bopd each. Brings the totals to perhaps around 3175.

3175bopd x $60 = $190,500/day or $69.5M/year (£55.6M)

If only 412M shares then using PS x1.1 gives an sp 14.8p

BH will be profit slicing and hence dilutions down to say, 12p.

Assuming that there are no further big ticket Capex’s required (finance fees/interest will be the main tickets) then we should hopefully start clearing some profit and at some point the sentiment will lift the sp. The MM’s will then peg us with a PE ratio. eg. x3 which will see an mc at around £165M.

It all hinges on what technologies are required to access the Fed Deep. If it’s serious, with further Capex, then the PS ratio will likely get maintained.

Hence your numerous outbursts against anyone highlighting the reasons for the current status quo ?

Lol, Finwitt., but you are stuck here, presumably balls-deep ?

You only appeared early January off the back of John1970’s posts and at which point you attempted to ingratiate yourself with driving the price down.

January then saw the bb with very high optimism with the much vaunted “7 new wells being drilled in the Fed Deep”.

Your true colours then become very apparent, when anyone posts any negativity on the stock that you paid c.16p for.

Dry your eyes princess.

Ouch Knw., that’s quite a loss but as per most peeps inputs, hang on in there & do not be rash whith thinking that your only option is to vacate with your remaining £70k.

One of the better quality posts on this bb in recent times was from Edmund Fitz who then argued that we could be sitting with an sp at around 12p by August. It was well laid out & it was accurate with its coverage of all relevant capex/opex/interest/fee payments figures, and so IF it comes to pass that AM then does carry out a consolidation, then I would certainly be using £12 as a benchmark if a 100:1 consolidation arises. That then sees you with £140k which is a painful lesson but not the end of the world.

I personally thought that Ed Fitz was a tad sceptical and that we could / should be looking at moving towards the old support line of 16p assuming that the main BH is still holding.

The concern though of course as recently posted is of possible further placings, further bonds, further warrants, further financial fees, which all then have an exponential effect on shareholders dilutions. You should though see a small but decent return on your current holdings.

‘.. Morals of a skunk but doesn't care..’

18 Dec 2020 15:33. RNS Number : 2233J

 

 Canadian Overseas Petroleum Responds to Market Rumours Regarding

 

Acquisition of Atomic Oil & Gas LLC

 ..The Company also confirmed today, in response to market rumours, that it is not considering any financing structure commonly referred to as an "equity sharing" arrangement in order to complete financing of the transaction.

………….

30 Dec 2020 07:00. RNS Number : 0660K

 

Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited Announces £6,000,000 Placing

…Arthur Millholland, President and CEO, commented: "This Placing entered into just before the Holiday period speaks volumes to the quality of the assets we will acquire under the Atomic acquisition…”

So then… who is it that has the morals of a skunk, having RNS’d to the market on a clearly fabricated untruth ?

Some peeps seriously need to be upping their research prior to ignorantly signing off on AM’s wish-lists for further easy placings. The prize is indeed big, but sadly all of us Pi’s do not then get to share in it.

“… How do you rate our CEO on the trustometer?…”

Lol, but the actual answer is : 1.75

& that ain’t too healthy peeps!

This being a fairly important financial query would then see the ii’s spend serious time & money on trying to resolve, but which has now been solved by a set of 8 ‘algorithms’ resulting in the above numerical answer.

The complete equation is known as the M-Score & his named after its developer Prof.M.Beneish. He’s one of those Ivy League clever chaps, who then developed a bank of 8 questionnaires all based around a company’s earnings metrics. As most peeps will already know, the reported earnings in company financial reports is actually quite a grey area of ‘substantive & non-substantive’ figures eg. some will have maybe payments gained from say, one-off sells of the office furniture, then recorded as income, which then falsely promotes a companies core business of say selling carrots. Long story short, but there is indeed an arithmetical answer to the question sought by all ii’s as to wether or not ‘the company can be trusted’. In AM’s case, the M-Score is red. Lol, but that ain’t a nice colour.

Ps. The equation was then used by the mad professor’s students and it was they who are accredited with initially red-flagging Enron.

Lol but must admit, I got spooked by that too.

A completely new and wild hypothesis thrown in by Brel,

that ‘AM might be taking this private’.

The evidence that was given though, appears to be only circumstantial,

that ‘AM appears to be diluting shareholders out of existence’,

As it was just simply a coincidence that there was then numerous bucketfuls of laundered confetti found on the premises.

But with AM, one comes to appreciate, that anything goes.

Thankfully though, the main BH still appear to be playing to the original game.

100% Llyw-less.

Get back in your pond bud.

The ‘complex technical issues’ preventing the release of RS report arise from.. ?

Maybe is then worth considering the following scenarios :

A. Upstream; possible further high pressure requirements exceeding 10,000 psi.

B. Downstream; possible sour oil as Wyoming generally sits sweet at 0.9 wt.% whilst sour starts >1.0 wt.% so maybe a high sulphur content.

C. Upstream / Midstream; possible poor rock porosity & so fracking material requirements are maybe out-with what can be achieved from our current use of gas. The sand primarily used by Texas shales gets railroaded in from Chicago / Great Lakes area & so maybe there’s transportation requirements.

‘..new field technologies required to enable access to the RS Report’s findings..’

The suggestion is that it could simply be new technologies to the Wyoming region, but which might then see any potential partnership sit on the sidelines whilst awaiting on a viable solution prior to commitment. Was notification given that JV is at the finalisation stage, but we are now suddenly being told of the need for a possible 1000:1 consolidation for ‘further financial placings’ as per Special Meeting Circular. Are any potential partners then waiting on solutions for ‘the new technologies required’ prior to JV ?

Hence a possibility of further big Capex tickets could exist.

Hence the probability of 1000:1 consolidations leading to yet further dilutions.

Am has some explaining to do.

It’s crazy numbers Jiving, which are bordering on incredulous.

Then we have to consider a possible repeat performance

if 1000:1 then goes ahead.

And with no further clarity from AM, I am now expecting there are several possibilities for further placings to then cover some hefty Capex requirements, centred on the secretive RS report and of AM’s earlier suggestion that ‘new technologies are required to then gain the difficult-to-explain oil resources’.

From Stockopedia:

Diluted Weighted Average Shares outstanding is the number of shares that a company has in issue. The number is diluted, meaning it takes account of outstanding convertible securities. The number is a weighted average for a period, meaning its the average number of shares outstanding during a period.

COPL:

2017. 10M

2018. 18M

2019. 29M

2020. 41M

2021. 146M

2022. 239M

============

The initial Atomic costs started mid 2020, when placings were raised to pay for ‘external consultants’ which then saw the RS Report delivered 1st Oct.2020. The shares then at c.40M and by December 2020 it was then 48M at the time of the initial Atomic announcement to the market. [4.8B actual, as pre the 2021 consolidation of 100:1]

H1 in 2023, now sees us at 412M.

The unconverted 165 bond securities,

165 x 2,447,980 = 403M shares.

In addition, the fees to BH for each converted bond, currently at c.$140k for each bond converted, based on a 5-day VWAP, generates approximately 1,923,980 shares/bond fee.

165 fees, so a possible 317.45M additional outstanding shares.

The SL interest payments c.$500k/month now paid via convertible securities (639,442 shares recently issued for settling $50K payable to arm’s length creditor)

The possibility then exists that 1B+ shares may very soon arise.

Out with the recent 2021 consolidation of 100:1 then today’s figure would be 41.2B and the DWAS outstanding, would be a minimum of 81.5B and would then have to consider the probability of the equivalent of 100B+ shares in total. A likely increase of 96B shares since Atomic started.

The concern is of yet more ‘mistakes’ occurring, of yet more poor management practices, of yet further total disregard for shareholders interests and of a further continuation in these phenomenally leveraged placings.

The requirement may indeed exist for additional fundings but the recklessness consistently shown by the management team, then warrants a vote for change.

Allowing the current team to do yet more consolidations to specifically facilitate additional placings as per the Special Meeting Circular and to do so without clarity, is then highly irresponsible.

Level headed peeps are all slowly getting their heads around the prospect that the JV chatter is possibly just another AM long drawn out, slow dance. That yes, it’s on the cards, but that no, it ain’t appearing anytime soon.

Even TW’s sidekicks had posted in January that they thought a JV was likely to be incoming but that they were then just sceptical on AM being able to make a decent deal from it.

But last night’s email puts all the emphasis on finding fresh blood… finding fresh subscribers. And coinciding with the main BH having instructed AM to rein in the spending.
Neither of these are indicative that a JV is imminent.

Then leaves the question, why propose a 1000:1 consolidation…

Outwith AM’s requirements to quickly find fresh blood, i can think of possibly three scenarios where additional spending power might be needed.

Sadly, but any discussion then centred on a non-JV is considered by a small but still significant minority to then be highly contentious, so will therefore ask for suggestions outwith trading hours & so over the weekend.
Similar to last weekend where the arguments were raised, discussed and when all are satisfied, the initial negatives can then hopefully again be put to rest.