Member Info for dougb189

Suspecting that the results of 44-19 will also be playing a v.significant part.

And quite likely to be promulgated by the FCA,
having been alerted by or from, the two rather notorious sharks,
who have now entered the fray.
Lol, & strongly suspecting that by this point,
1970’sJ., will now be feverishly stroking his ego.

Fingers crossed though
& this week’s RNS relates to some management changes.

Wouldn’t get too fazed Fish… AM is the master of spin.
There’s a few more turns on the roulette table yet.

Not lack of money just yet, but without any news flow,
imv the smaller BH could by then have driven the sp down to 5p.
Can’t see any serious JV then coming onboard with a management team,
that has then recklessly isolated any opportunity for gaining further placings.
As that reckless mismanagement would possibly extend into project funding.

Fish, you are not fully interpreting the objectives,
the posts are not aimed at the bb,
they are aimed higher, hopefully to try get a resolution ie a news update.

I have always posted that the BH was central to my risk assessment.
That has obviously been impacted by one of the ‘smaller’ BH.

It still needs to be & could easily be rectified by AM. Should he wake up.
So yes, still v.interested but the next 10 days will be pivotal.

Lol. But sadly Still too young to be enjoying a nice smoke.
A few years yet for retirement, when I can then redecorate the greenhouse.

8,530,951 shares now being rapidly sold off.
Only 3M sold today ?
Assuming avg. 7p, then generates £597k.
So they lose £28,000 when not converting at the conversion price of 7.3p

IF they are happy to take a loss on the 7.3p conversion,
What’s going to happen to the 5 bond securities that have a 13.3p conversion ?

Fact. Some BH are ditching.
Fact. Some of the Pi’s then see future placings being a real problem.

Q. What minimum price could the BH set as a target, to break even on the 5 bond securities that were converted at 13.3p ?
A. The example given ie. 5p then shows how easy it would be for the disgruntled BH to break even.

And we are not even half way through the 8M sell off, and it is now 6.5p

Having raised $3.2M cash two weeks before, then putting aside $150K for each drill would not have been a problem. The ‘resources’ could simply have been weather related.

It is only dirt cheap if there is a JV.
But IF there is no JV then AM has to use retail to finance placings for further development probably by end of March. Some BH are now making the latter route, almost non-viable. That is a significant risk factor for the Pi who were thinking that AM has always been short on the truth with respect to his 12 months of promising RBL &/or JV but who were bolstered by the assumption that the BH were happy to fund the initial developments until sufficient gravity is seen in the bopd, has now been severely impacted, creating a much higher risk threshold.

The BH can afford to sell the secondary batch of c.8M shares at any price, as it is all bonus options payments. The 2nd batch c.8M at conversion of 7.3p then gave $750K, which they are no longer aiming for.

Assuming they then sell at an average price c.5p,
That then returns close to $500k.
That $500k could then be used to offset on the primary batch of today’s conversions ($1M / 6M shares @13.3p each)

Assuming they are targeting 5p on the ‘bonus’ batch, then means they then can afford to sell the primary batch ($1M / 6M OS) for 6.65p to break even, ie to vacate from further dealings with AM…

It then all hinges on AM.. will he give an update on the 2nd well being drilled, even God forbid, a commentary on its progress & will he also give an update / progress report on the well currently half way thru its 7-day pressure/ flow test. I suspect he is just not capable of. Would Lizzie be any better ? & sadly linguistic skill sets are often inherited.

It’s fairly clear that some of the BH now have similar confidence levels as c.90% of the shareholders, in AM’s managerial competence. It was posted thru the week... you just can’t afford to throw the kitchen sink at this one.

News on the 2nd drill could drop next week; 1st drill took almost 4 weeks (last week In December till 23rd January) so guessing the 2nd drill might go slightly quicker, but was a quoted ‘delay’ on the 23rd Jan of getting the kit together (for 2nd drill) and of course, those bad weather spells early February. Fingers crossed though that results could arrive next week.

That is the 2nd tier BH and they are accomplishing 2 objectives
1. Picking up cash, at whatever price, for their accredited 6 months interest.
2. Telling AM exactly what they think of his managerial competence.

Hadron Capital was only January 2020, when offered c.12% stake in COPL for which they then paid £2.05M, only to find out that a few weeks later, AM did yet another placing for a £14M book-build. Hadron sold as soon as the shares were relisted. These are the same guys who invested £2M innARB & kept them for 2 years, before selling at c.£40M. These were not a Mickey Mouse outfit as per HFB.

The 2nd batch of bonds [$750k] were converted at 7.3p.
It would be fair to say that some BH are taking a haircut.

Not quite as bad as when Hadron Capital cut all their ties with AM,
It it is a very similar message.

With an avg. price of 10p.
Not too shabby.

5.06%

Lol, dreadful ramping indeed but was originally mentioned on Tuesday, the 1st day of the 7-day pressure / flow checks, soo is a consistent belief that news may drop directly related to the tests this week.

14:30 & I’m maxed out problem solving, in the real world but looking forward to an Eventual update.

Been a buzz all week waiting on 2:30pm
Lol.

Some peeps mistakenly thinking that a JV won’t happen till we get the 4 wells done. A JV is not reliant solely on the reserves figures, but by the risk assessment a JV then evaluates to all of the field metrics, inclusive of CPR, inclusive of history, inclusive of geological probability & is then part determined by any reserves figures (who was it 14 months ago kept repeating that a CPR could Not be done on geological probability… Lord haw haw? then just check out Boil).

As per earlier post, the BH are sitting quietly.
The guess therefore is that the JV is in the bag,
But it is the RBL that is awaiting additional reserves figures.

With only AM at the helm & a downwards sliding sp every time he posts And with slow engineering development progress, what other probability would have the BH sitting so quietly?

Would suspect that any potential JV & RBL are watching the current pressure / flow checks very closely.

As a gambling man, i’d be focused on trying to work out why the BH appear relaxed / subdued.

As a numbers man, i’d be calculating that as there is a CPR stating there is x bbls ooip, that the JV will then have calculated the risk against the CPR and then offset their tax liabilities, so giving any JV a lot lower risk % assessment threshold. The higher risk % assessment is then taken by the RBL investment bankers who can’t offset any losses eg. a duster.

Would then reckon that the BH could appear to be relaxed as they possibly already have the JV & that they are now only waiting on the investment bankers / RBL to hopefully make a positive decision, perhaps as early as the results of the current 7-day pressure / flow test. A JV on its own would give AM less flexibility but combined with an RBL would see the BH in a better position.

The gamble is, have the BH / senior lender cause for concern or do they have conviction, aka inside-gen..
The Pi might just want to hold on to the kitchen sink, for now.

No major is likely to splash the cash on a minnow c. 1000bopd.
No one yet is interested in splashing out £600k for a TR1 on a ‘1B bbl’ find.
No one is likely to be chasing AM for an interview.
The list of broken promises now sees some commentators querying the integrity of the previous interviewers for not asking straight questions. It will take a good set of results before AM again faces any interviewer.

Comforting though to see that the main BH is still onside & also that some funds are available for the 7 day pressure /flow test. Which I’m guessing probably has a potential JV looking closely at the results & that these results will then get written up into the 2022 reserves report, so perhaps again a delay on that item.

At some point funds will be needed, currently indicated to be required by the end of March. That would then require news flows.. so other than the half-truths of an RBL is pending &/or a JV is pending would reckon then that news flows will be tied into any improved oil flows.

Fingers crossed that the 5 months of flaring is starting to pay off.

Thanks Filthy., that will be the largest O&G exploration & production company in Japan currently in discussions with TL..

Would reckon it was either the London hedge fund backing the Vue bid, & who are the smallest player at the table with only c.$30B in various fund holdings or of course, her indoors.. Madame Mooky. ?!