Member Info for DonoLad

Stan has qualifications in stating the bleedin obvious about the economy or the way it interacts with its citizens. But to keep plugging a party, whose MP's live in Muslim states as tax exiles, or take money off crypto billionaires to plug crypto and banking deregulation is at best mis guided.

Stan the Reform bore out in force. Thx for your enlightening outlook on politics, economics and life.

Not surprising Ben. The Times are today forecasting interest rates up-to 5.25% as the World stands on the edge of recession. Iran have just lobbed a few more missiles to effectively keep the straights closed as the US is powerless to resist them unless they proceed with a ground invasion which will endure the Democrats get elected in 2028. So checkmate to Iran. Buckle up

Not surprising Ben. The Times are today forecasting interest rates up-to 5.25% as the World stands on the edge of recession. Iran have just lobbed a few more missiles to effectively keep the straights closed as the US is powerless to resist them unless they proceed with a ground invasion which will endure the Democrats get elected in 2028. So checkmate to Iran. Buckle up

Nothing to do with Left or Right. It's to do with progressive governments living beyond their means for decades. The facts speak for themselves. Boris and Sunak were the most irresponsible.

📈 Big picture trend

• 1997: low (~35%)

• 2010: doubled (~65%)

• 2021 peak: ~100%+

• Today: still near 100% of GDP

⸻

🧠 What drove the increases

Three major shocks dominate the whole period:

1. 2008 financial crisis

2. Slow growth + deficits in the 2010s

3. COVID pandemic spending

⸻

⚖️ Key takeaway

UK debt didn’t steadily climb—it jumped in two big waves (2008 and 2020), and never fully came back down afterward.

Max 24% tax it should read.

Lettuce Liz tried making the rich richer by reducing the 45p tax rate and that racked up 10 year gilts instantaneously. Rishi didn't get elected by the old farts who are members of the party he was imposed the Tory big guns. He was effectively a technocrat and held a steady course, but IMO gave the keys back early as he knew what eventually would happen. So making the rich richer as you suggest sunk Truss and raised 10 yr gilts in a fairly stable global environment. Economics are nuanced and simple solutions that please the Proli dont exist.

Rubbish Stan. The Straights being closed and oil at $120 a barrel is the straw thats broke the Camels back. Making the rich richer as you suggest is what Labour have continued doing. I'm very comfortable, retired and pay 20% tax max on a mixed portfolio. Thats the issue, Reeves should have taxed me on capital gains amongst other areas, instead they heaped misery on small business via NI. And before you accuse me of being in Cuckoo land i'm ideally a centrist Tory voter. Wealth has gravitated into the top 1% exponentially in the last decade, it's clearly before our eyes. We need to help young motivated workers get a stake in society, whilst cutting welfare. No party has done this in decades, and Farage certainly wont do it. The boomers benefitted form property, pensions, industrial investment and education post WW2 enabled by mass wealth redistribution.

Stanley, housing being unaffordable hasen't just happened in two years. This is decades of housing stock mis management. Sure Reeves leaves much to be desired. Balancing the fiscal fragility that the western world has bestowed on itself is complex. You'll found out that like Brexit, just saying 'Vote Reform' is the gullible being played by offshore elites and financiers. I mean feel free to share your thought process on Farage's utopian World of banking deregulation and shadow banking, and how that fits into making housing and the cost of living more affordable for buyers of TW's products?

Who leveraged the country to the tune 3 trillion, who closed our fossil fuel power stations and landed industry with huge energy bills, who showboated at Davos lumbering us with stringent net zero, who opened the immigration flood gates, who assert the military, who mothballed nuclear power, who indebted a generation with student loans and now cant get mortgages, who gave the thickos the leave vote? Starmer and Reeves are very average and wanted so desperately to govern, yet have screwed up. This financial crisis we approach is many decades in the making. Last balanced budget 2001 under Brown. Farage backs Crypto, shadow banking and further banking deregulation. But people are so myopi, angry and blinkered they believe in fairy tales like they'll hang onto TW shares as they drop to what 1 billion MCAP or 28p thinking a divi will tide them over until blue skys arrive.

Many delusional people frequent these boards aside from the Reform or Restore nostalgia fantasists many think TW will jump back to previous levels and tide them over with a nice divi. This share has dropped 33% in just over a month. Alarm bells should be ringing guys.

Of course nobody knows short term sp movements. You say the balance sheet is strong and that the dividend will tide investors over until there is positive movement. That’s the rub though isn’t it? The dividend isn’t covered by profit and profits are deteriorating. My option is that with a large land bank TW has much to fall back on, but nothing like the 2.79 billion Mcap of today. This is a fragile sector and broker downgrades are sure as eggs are yellow. All IMO of course.

Yes I sold in early April Chris. Nothing wrong with selling after reassessing the situation. I been called a fantasist for saying the SP has a lot further to fall, but I believe it will in the absence of any positives to house price affordability in the near future. The divi isn't covered by profit so alarm bells should be ringing. If people still believe in TW then selling to re purchase at a much lower price is the smart move. Buy and hold is for the birds when warnings are flashing red.

The tea leaves say no support below the low 80’s and with inflation and interests rates rising, plus the effects of the ME yet to be felt I’d say this SP hasn’t bottomed yet. This is no rabbit to be pulled out of the hat wrt house prices or building profitability for a few years.

TW's dividend is not covered by free cash flow, but from the cash pile which stands at £343 million at the end 2025 down from £590 million the previous year.

The Trump assassination attempt is just noise as the stock markets adjust to the reality that the straights and other pinch points like Mallaca and Suez are going to be bargaining chips in the new world order. Let’s see what TW’s update brings. Is a 37% drop like crest on the cards? Who knows, would 53p a share or an Mcap of 1.8 billion would make TW a buy?

Never catch a falling knife

Every dog has its day. The west may have had its day. The only way out is to accept that land and property are not worth what people think. Land prices less, house prices less equal better affordability. Not sure where that leaves TW.

EPS looks like declining year on year, which doesn’t look like a strong buy. The time to buy this share will be when buyer demand is strengthening, interest rates have stabilised or lowered and TW’s margins have improved.

Trying to talk a share up or down on the LSE forum!!! Whatever I say or think won’t move this share one jot. I’m a fantasist? I don’t know what line of business or commerce you frequent but the fundamentals for young under 40 buyers is on the floor. So read the tea leaves all you like, common sense is saying that uncertainty is destroying buying confidence. The big casualties of rising interest rates and unsustainable debt will be houses builders and car retailers. Car lease debt could well spark the next GFC. Before I go Willis please furnish us with your rationale to buy TW and 85p please.