Member Info for DonoLad

Interestingly Ben wrt Hong Kong, I heard several people say that the housing market was kick stared in the south east as people returned to the UK before 97. Not all returned but a sizeable number. This time the influx from HK on BNO or similar passports certainly buoyed the market. But I agree that until blood letting has taken place the house builders will flounder. I’m genuinely surprised the economy hasn’t gone into recession over the oil price issues although the Jan - March figures of UK were astonishingly robust.

I read the LSE boards to see what others think wrt certain shares, not to be indulged by political bores. Stan is what the young describe as an NPC, a drone automaton etc. Ive made my mind up Stan, so bugger off and bore elsewhere please or just talk about TW.

The Don to Stan. Your handler is trying make contact, please get back online.

You are right Denby. I shall refrain.

Stan the gullible plank. Someone asked what Stan does for a living? Well he reads the Express so not an occupation requiring critical thought or analysis.

Stan the plank with his CSE grade 1 in stating the bleedin obvious!!

It looks like a Labour leadership challenge with possibly a more left leaning PM for another 2-3 years. The economic effect is a given. Bond mkt pressures, interest rate rises. Land is a leveraged bet on future house prices, which we can all guess the direction of travel.

Builders buy land assuming:

• homes can be sold at a target price,

• build costs stay manageable,

• financing remains available.

If house prices fall 15–25%, the residual land value can fall much more — often 30–60% because land is what absorbs the margin shock. With other builders already selling land to cover balances sheets TW could find themselves in the same boat.

TW’s MCAP is currently 2.7 billion with the land bank valued at a similar value. If land halves in value the TW share price could also half. This rationale is what forced me to sell a few months back.

This isn’t a political post, just stating the hear and now effect of house building. I’ve asked the question before. Is TW investable at 50p? I’m not sure it is with the medium term outlook of domestic politics and no end in sight to the ME conflict AKA energy shocks. All IMO of course.

And it’s spelt Corbyn.

Stan the plank

Thinking Reform are some magic fix for the UK is fantasy. Labour have been abysmal, and any growth we’ve seen has been despite Rachel Reeves, not because of her — but pretending Reform have all the answers is just swapping one set of empty slogans for another. Farage and Lowe are best consigned to Room 101 with the PC virtue signally neo liberals.

Cristopher

I lost about 10% on TW by selling at around £1 after trading this share a few times. When the Iran conflict started I sold as Trump initiated volatility is the new norm. I posted that PoundF had this share at 53p in August and I asked is this a buy at 50p? No joke, a deadly serious question. From your the tone of your last post you obviously don’t think the SP is going North any time soon. I concur.

Also called Pound Sterling Live. If any of us knew tomorrow’s numbers we’d all be billionaires, obviously we don’t. Pound F have a 60% hit rate of accuracy within certain parameters. So yes you’ll always get outlandish valuations. DYOR. 53p isn’t a joke it’s a good probability IMO. Interest rate rises and inflation are certainly going to limit affordability, Time will tell.

Should read ‘PoundF’

Back to TW share chat. The above have a forecast for TW of 53p in August. That would make sense with inevitable inflation and interest rate rise. I wonder what the divi will be over the next 36 months and if 50p is a good entry price?

And read my effing posts please Stan. I’m right wing saying we need welfare cuts, I just see through Farage and people like you.

And which administration starved our military of cash, and which administration has pumped up the military spend Stan?

Reform’s client base consist mainly of welfare recipients both sides of SPA. Reform state the bleeding obvious wrt problems in society and the economy like many of their supporters, but offer no solutions. The ‘how’ is always missing from Reforms plans.

Calling everyone who doesn’t vote Reform a socialist is lazy politics. I want adult politicians who are willing to make difficult, responsible decisions — including cutting welfare where needed and delivering sensible tax cuts to stimulate growth and reward work and investment.

We’re not on the edge of default, but that’s exactly why action is needed now. It’s far easier to make sensible changes today than to wait until we’re forced into deep recession or genuine fiscal crisis. Leadership means acting early, not waiting for disaster.

Here’s an example of critical thinking Stan. Wales would never want to leave the UK, they are not stupid people. So how did Plaid Cymru get to control the senedd last week? Well because as you so eloquently point out, Labour aren’t on fire are they? So change needs to happen. Most people don’t want Reform so you get Plaid. At the next GE much water will have passed under the bridge but if nothing changes you can bet your bottom dollar the uk will be ruled by a Labour/ Green/ Liberal coalition. That’s why I despise you plastic patriots so much, aside from the racism and inferiority, you are wreckers.

Voted right of centre all my life. Just able to critically think unlike you plastic patriots.