Member Info for DonaldTrumpsWig

Around 6 mins in very interesting

When asked what sort of deals are Novartis looking for.

‘We are looking at core therapeutic areas’’

‘We are looking for assets that give us a technology advantage’

‘We are driven by the science’

‘We need to see really strong science before we make these bets’

Pre/Cision ticks all of those boxes 👍👍

My OPINION on the $25bn potential was based on the the data provided below by Pfizer. Why?

The TAM for Pre/Cision is likely to be greater than that for ADC's because IN MY OPINION Pre/Cision will be cheaper, faster & more specific than ADC's

Seagen's predicted revenues are expected to be $10 billion by 2030, not beyond the realms of possibility for Pre/Cision IN MY OPINION

If Seagen are valued at $43 billion why is $25 billion for Pre/Cision ridiculous IN YOUR OPINION?

A report posted late last week demonstrated unequivocally that BP are sitting on a huge war chest and at least 10 of them were shown to have investment funds available in excess of $25 billion (that bit wasn't an opinion)

Pfizer to acquire Seagen for $229 per Seagen share in cash, for a total enterprise value of approximately $43 billion

Proposed combination enhances Pfizer’s position as a leading company in Oncology

Seagen’s medicines, late-stage development programs and pioneering expertise in Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADCs) strongly complement Pfizer’s Oncology portfolio

Seagen expected to contribute more than $10 billion in risk-adjusted revenues in 2030

Exactly Starbright, if you had read my post carefully you might have noticed that my comment was an opinion not a statement of fact. The word 'suggest' was a clue.

A bit like your opinion (below) on the creation of a 'traders paradise' whatever one of those is ?

'so much of the rhetoric on this ‘board and on X is ridiculous, beyond parody. It’s created a traders paradise which appears to be easily exploited.'

The company provides the facts the rest of us provide our opinions based on those facts. If you want to categorise those opinions as ramps or de-ramps then crack on.

I don't see taking direct quotes from the CEO and CSO as ramping. I don't take the published data that we are dosing at 3.5 times the standard level as ramping. I don't take the fact that we are dosing cohort 7 without any sign of MTD as ramping. I don't take the CEO confirming early signs of tumour shrinkage as ramping. They are simply facts provided by the company via the appropriate channels.

Whatever anyone says on here or on Xcrement is nothing more than a personal point of view and to be treated accordingly. If any 'investor' makes their decision based on the points of view of other investors as opposed to information provided by the company, then they are a fool.

Thanks for the heads up Viking. BP have clearly worked out that AVA6k is just a scam and big Al has been pumping patients full of Ribena. That fall from £1.65 to £1.25 is just the beginning. How can we have all been so stupid??

Energy, $665 billion is the conservative estimate. £1.3 trillion is the stretch estimate !!

Interesting that if we use the Seagen $43 billion valuation as a guide and suggest $25 billion for AVCT, then there are 10 BP Co's that could afford us using only their conservative firepower, quite scary actually !!

It couldn't be clearer gmcc

The only suggestion I can come up for the disconnect between the paradigm shift in treatment AVCT are clearly delivering and the SP, is, either, the market doesn't understand the science/opportunity fully, or re-purposing an old chemo is somehow seen as less 'sexy' than 'new' therapies like ADC's??

It would seem BP see ADC's as very investible but unless I'm missing something, Pre/Cision is a better, faster, cheaper alternative to ADC's.

I wonder when the penny will drop ??

Just to add to your post JT and to emphasise how remarkable the results are so far, we mustn't forget that the patients in P1a were all 'dox naive'. In other words, they were specifically selected because dox was not deemed to be the appropriate chemo for their particular cancer type.

So to see any level of efficacy was neither planned nor expected, a wonderful side-effect if you like?

Just to add to my last post, FAPa is the enzyme that cleaves the AVA chemistry, effectively delivering the warhead. My understanding is that there is no correlation between levels of FAPa and the effectiveness of dox.

I guess the very problem with dox is it's indiscriminate nature and the systemic damage it causes to all cells. Therefore, I would suggest that if dox is cleaved in the TME it will destroy all cells in the vicinity regardless of whether they are upregulated in FAPa or not ??

Agree with all that JT and my comments certainly were not aimed at you, a poster who I'm sure most would agree, doesn't use lazy generalisations and always backs up comments with reasoned argument.

I could argue that the points you raise are not exactly risks but more questions as to the level of effectiveness of AVA6k when compared to standard dox. I think any risk as to whether AVA6k is an improvement over standard dox has been comprehensively removed.

The only remaining question is around the level of improvement.

That word 'risk' the dog whistle word for the under researched, the catch-all word when you are too thick and/or lazy to put forward a reasoned argument.

I challenge anyone to explain the risk from a scientific perspective? Where is the risk in the trial so far? based upon the results we know to date taken from RNS's, the Science Day, the Boston poster etc, where are the risks in the trial not achieving its objectives ?

Lazy generalisations about, small cap pharma/clinical trials being inherently risky etc etc isn't a valid argument.

Come on, in the words of Delia Smith 'let's be having you'

Agree with all of those options JT, and I refer to the comments of AS & EF with regards to funding 'Don't worry about that' and 'we know what we have'

In my opinion there is a direct correlation between the further to trial progresses, the more data is accumulated and the number of funding options that will become available. In other words, the longer the company is 'quietly getting on with things' the more valuable the Co/Platform becomes.

The Q4 data readout will be pivotal and should the early signs of efficacy be as good as we expect then I think the funding 'optionality' AS alluded to will be off the scale with a queue of suitors.

For what it's worth, I think a buyout offer is almost inevitable. Why? Lot's of evidence to suggest that a) BP are sitting on piles of cash b) when they identify an asset they want, they typically buy the IP outright, often for cash. c) if they make a cash offer the BOD are obliged to put that offer to the shareholders and how many of us would reject an offer north of £20 per share? d) at £20 per share AS and the rest of the BOD would be rich beyond their wildest dreams and by handing over the pipeline to BP, cancer sufferers would likely receive treatment much sooner

I said last week not to get too excited by unsubstantiated SP rises nor despondent with the equivalent falls.

The only information of any significance since the 19th September was the update provided earlier by AS on the back of the Boston poster.

I have to admit that having listened to the video, most of it was beyond my comprehension however what came across loud and clear is that AS was delighted with the progress to date and that, like AVA600, the PK data was proving to be incredibly consistent and delivering results in AS's words 'as we would expect'

Nobody with half a brain should be interested in 10p here or 20p there unless you are chasing a few quid to pay the gas bill at the end of the month. Stop stressing about the SP and listen to AS and try to understand what he is telling us, it's very important, the SP today isn't.

Keep your eye on the big picture and earlier today, almost unnoticed, AL potentially just added a few billion to the enterprise value

Don’t want to be a party pooper and spoil the fun over on X crement but if Janet Munroe was involved in, or had any inkling that strategic discussions were taking place between Avct and Novartis she wouldn’t be posting her thoughts on X creta 🙄

Moneysponge - 'No way we have the collective power to move the market cap from £300m to around £450m and in less then a couple of weeks'

100% - no way the 30-40 retail LTH's that understand the science could scrape together £150m - unless RichKen is back in for a top up !!!!

BP takeovers are almost always based on predicted future revenues as opposed to current revenues

Pfizer paid $43 billion for Seagen who had predicted revenues 2023 of $2.2 billion, that's almost 20 X revenues. It is a futile exercise trying extrapolate future value for AVCT based on current revenues

We have to keep reminding ourselves that Pre/Cision is a completely novel, utterly brilliant, piece of chemistry that has unlocked the Pandora's box of using FAPa to deliver highly poisonous chemo directly to tumours.

Many have tried before, all have failed. It is a 'paradigm shift' in cancer care that will demand a paradigm shift in takeover valuation. Hold tight

In my opinion I suspect a full buy out will be the end game, BP will want access to the platform and all subsequent IP/patented Pro drugs .

Signing licencing deals in advance of this buy out will only boost the SP and subsequent enterprise value.

I do hope the BOD will repay the patience of us LTH's by negotiating a full cash offer. This will provide us with all the options going forward whether we choose to cash out or a reinvest into the new entity.

Agree, Icecool

Mr Archer takes a side-swipe at LTH's for 'heightened emotions' and suggests the language used is effectively not to be taken too seriously in the absence of numbers

I would be interested to understand if Mr Archer considers the numbers in the following sentence to be emotional ? or cold hard facts?

The Safety Data Monitoring Committee (SDMC) has recommended continuation to the 7th dose cohort at 385 mg/m2, which is equivalent to approximately 3.5 times the standard dose of doxorubicin.

Definitely feels like institutional money has decided to take a position and if this is the case then the rises should stick.

Can't believe this rise is being driven by Sheppy and Jadams trying to get back in