RE: Risks to AVA6000 success16 Nov 2023 11:38
It's a good question BV and something I'm interested to understand. Just what are the risks ? It's a long time since I studied Economics but a classic economic theory applied to risk was something called Porters 5 forces.
Threat of new entrants, Bargaining power of buyers, Bargaining power of suppliers, Threat of substitutes, and Competitive rivalry.
With the exception of bargaining power of suppliers (of which I have no understanding), I would say AVCT are in a very strong position on the other 4 metrics.
We hear the tired old line that 'all drug trials are risky' without that statement ever being backed up with risk that is specific to AVA/Pre/Cision
I don't have a problem with accepting risk and I am keen to understand where it exists but from my own research:
1. Safety & Tolerability - already confirmed , we are into C7 and no MTD has been found, that in itself is unequivocal.
2. Efficacy - excellent early indications and whilst we can all agree that we need more data, we do know what dox does and that it is being delivered to the TME at 'therapeutic levels'. I can't see any risk in dox delivering its well understood efficacy when delivered to the appropriate tumour types in increased doses.
3. Finance - 'we don't need to worry about that' and the expedited P2 trial has shortened the runway. Absolutely no evidence to suggest that finance is a short/mid term risk.
4. Porters 5 forces - no obvious Substitutes or Alternatives or New Entrants hence reduced bargaining power for buyers
Can anyone think of any other realistic risks? that don't involve arthritis & potash or comparisons to Wilko's?