Member Info for Doc83

Equates to 34p on current exchange rate. So not near off. It’s also only 150 shares volume!

Yes, nervous times. I expect the SP to double or halve depending on if we get on a new trial or not.

Thanks, SYN00GOLD.

Docdaneeka- yes, likely that’s what it is. But I live in hope that it means actual, full ACTIV results for all participants :)

Where is the part it mentions “updating attendees on the results from the ACTIV trials”? Not doubting it says that, just sounds potentially exciting and wanted to read it myself!

If it genuinely is ALL results, including the much anticipated Synairgen P2 results, could it be more than a coincidence that our AGM is almost immediately after…?

Some of the lines I found more interesting...

“We are engaged with people in the scientific community and people around these national trials that may be capable of taking our drug further forward than where we’ve got to date..."

"we need to convert these conversations into clinical trials where we continue to assess the drug."

"next step is to fully engage with these teams and talk to them about including our drug in their trials."

"they are reorientating these trials to include OTHER viruses..."

I thought some might find this useful. Sometimes things are a bit clearer in writing.

RM Proactive Interview - 5 April 2022 (pre deep dive analysis)
Disappointing SPRINTER results:
“It’s been tough for investors, and we recognise that.”
“We are engaged with people in the scientific community and people around these national trials that may be capable of taking our drug further forward than where we’ve got to date, in Covid. But we need to remember prior to Covid we were developing this drug because it’s got broad spectrum antiviral properties…we’ve got our eye on things (other than) around Covid.”

ACTIV-2:
“We are talking to the trial team to identify other ways we can generate data in the community, prior to being hospitalised.”

What’s next for SNG?:
We’re engaging with the scientific community to understand the meaning of this data and identify ways forward…”
“The data we’re generating is opening up some very interesting conversations and we need to convert these conversations into clinical trials where we continue to assess the drug.”

Message to investors?:
“Watch out for the data and trust us that we are really busy working through the data and engaging with the scientific community, particularly around trials that are being conducted in the Covid-19 area.”

RM Proactive Interview – 18 May 2022 (post deep dive)

What’s the next step?:
“What we’re looking to do is collaborate with some of these very large clinical trial platforms that have been formed during Covid times, to confirm this signal (that SNG works), so that’s the next step.”

Conclude with what the next steps are exactly?:
“We’ve had some meetings with the clinical trial community as we’ve been analysing the data and they’ve been interested in the data, that the real next step is to fully engage with these teams and talk to them about including our drug in their trials. What’s great for us is that there some tremendously large groups doing this effectively around the world and it is quite exciting for us that they’ve done incredible things during Covid times.
They’ve recognised there was a medical problem before Covid came along, so they are reorientating these trials to include other viruses which is absolutely perfect for us. So we’re in a series of discussions with these trial teams and we think the data we’ve generated makes our drug a very attractive drug to be included in these trials.”

I think it’s fair to say we were all very excited at the senior job hires and commercialisation agreements being made. I think we also (incorrectly) assumed the company had been given a bit of a heads up that things were looking good and to get ready for production. As it turned out, they didn’t have a clue.

You live and die by your decisions. If P3 had been a success they would have indeed been heroes and reaped the rewards. But it wasn’t, and now we know they didn’t have any nudges or winks from the powers that be I would argue they gambled a bit too much with all that they did. They’d already missed peak Covid (at least at that particular moment in time) so why the rush?

Thursday should be fascinating. It’s ok reading or watching interviews, but there is nothing like meeting people in person and seeing the whites of their eyes to really understand what kind of person they are. Can RM and the current management team take SNG forward? I’ll hopefully have a better idea by Thursday afternoon.

Sativa - that’s not typically how SNG work. They like to leave it conveniently until the morning of any such events. Even though anything market sensitive should be announced immediately. Funny coincidences.

Sounds like there’s a few of us attending on Thursday. I hope they booked a big enough room and it’s not like the Berkshire Hathaway annual meet where if you’re not hours early you have to watch from another room!

I don’t think that’s what Tommy thinks?

I think we might be getting too excited over what is just a £30k trade!?

Brand - Not sure I quite follow that logic!

On valuations, some of us may recall the Synairgen presentation below from some years ago, where RM discusses possible valuations. For a successful phase 2 drug, you were looking around £1bn.

We had stellar P2 results on SPRINTER and know we have passed ACTIV P2, albeit we haven’t seen the data. SPRINTER P3 was a mess, but a clever large pharma will understand that was the trial that failed more than the drug itself. If we can get on a P3 trial then you could argue we are worth the £1bn/£5 per share.

At that point, hand it over to large pharma and let them run with it. Otherwise SNG001 really might not ever be used commercially.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BzK7lCjN6Jw

As long as Polygon don’t want him gone, he’ll survive.

Tommy: “I still believe the company are aiming to maximise value through a JV deal”

Certainly that is the language RM used in his most recent interview with Katie and I probably also see as most likely.
That’s not going to get us £10. But if it gets me back to breakeven (80p) I’ll be a bit happier.

Investowin - fair point. I think it is still worth asking some of the other questions that are perhaps outside of their control. It might still tell us a lot about those who are ultimately responsible for our company.

Kevin - SP could well plummet, but honestly I don't think it will... we are already back down to 28p. Even if it fell to 20p, it's fairly insignificant for those of us who were buying at £1.50-2!

Manifesto - you are quite right, they don't have control over who builds a stake in the company. But my questions were more specifically:

- do they/Polygon have contact? If so what about, if not why not?
- are Synairgen happy or have concerns there is such a large shareholder that could potentially influence the future direction of the company?

They might not want to answer either of those. But I think it's important to remember WE OWN SYNAIRGEN. The management team look after it on our behalf. Therefore they have a responsibility to answer these very relevant questions. Any shareholder who holds 27% of a company is very relevant. As someone pointed out yesterday, Polygon don't have a seat on the board (they may well want one soon!) but that means they shouldn't be privy to any inside information or information that we are also not entitled to.
-

I’ll be attending and heading down on a very early train. I wish they’d have made it a bit later in the day!

In any case like everyone else, I have quite a few questions. I hope we get the opportunity to ask them. Some of mine are:

- some of the recent big name hires are effectively redundant for the foreseeable future, for example those responsible for commercialisation, which looks like it is on the back burner. What is happening with these hires which presumably come with significant salaries?
- I appreciate the benefit of hindsight is a wonderful thing but on reflection, given that we had already missed the peak of Covid, should we have not been quite so aggressive with our hires and commercialisation strategy, and waited until P3 results?
- the new timeframe of “summer” for ACTIV P2 data… is this a guess, or have they been given actual guidance by the NIH? Was the previous H1 guideline a guess or were the goalposts moved?
- any plans to reveal any long Covid data?
- do Synairgen and Polygon have a dialogue/talk to each other? If so, what about? If not, why not when they are so significant?
- are Synairgen happy to have such a large “outside” shareholder who could potentially dictate the future direction of the company?

I’d also like to offer some gentle feedback on the lack of communication in the aftermath of 21/2. I know some people feel they did nothing wrong here, but truly I have never known a listed company offer such little communication following the most dramatic SP fall in their history.

I won’t be going in all guns blazing. These are legitimate questions that I believe need answering and I want Synairgen to come out the other side of this and do well.

Hmm, I’m not entirely convinced Poly and Synairgen are planning things together. I don’t see what benefit it is to the Synairgen management team to have such a large and powerful/influential investor that could dictate things. Sure, if a cash raise is needed in future years, it’s better to have them on side. But otherwise if I was the BOD, I wouldn’t want them poking their nose in.

The day I try to be clever and sell my shares with the aim of buying them back cheaper is the day the SP rockets 1000%.

If that happened, I'd be jumping off the nearest bridge. So I'll likely hold them. Maybe at a push trade 10-20% of my holding.

MrCosts, LOL!

This is exactly as TommyD said yesterday. Rising in anticipation of the AGM or perhaps a decent sized buyer, but there's no firm new news and as a result it was always likely (IMO) to drift back.

The only way this breaks out of its trading range is for news of a new trial, ACTIV P2 data, maybe something on long Covid (a long shot) or something similarly big.