Member Info for Doc83

Manifesto - As we thought but nice to see in writing.

Brand - no one was saying anything about cash raises.

We can think the sun shines out of the management teams bottoms, but as shareholders we have a right to hold them to account. So far, a lot of money has been flushed down the toilet with little to show for it, at least in terms of actually making some money. Which is what we are all here for, right?

JoeyDiamond - I agree that’s likely the case. But a bit more detail is needed from them!

Ref issuing more equity, that always sends a shiver down my spine but I suspect JoeyDiamond is correct.

Even so, I’ll need more than just a “we want the ability to issue more equity” (diluting current shareholders) before I say yes or no to that.

My letter arrived today confirming my attendance.

Wigster - a question for the AGM could be what do Synairgen define as ‘at haste’?!

That sounds exactly like the same guff and what the RNS from Synairgen said?

I don’t expect anything until the AGM or just before.

andsoforth - a shame. I like good, solid debates on the pros and cons, as well as possible outcomes.

Sadly, every board has a Urraca. Those that don’t want to hear anything but positives.

LOL. So now I am a deramper!

Urramper - are you working for NFC's bid team?

As Wigster mentioned earlier, they have 15 months after the last AGM, so some wiggle room was there. You’d think they have held off the AGM until they had some news because whether some people on here want to believe it or not, they have messed up and questions will be asked. If they have good news to tell, it might help make it a much happier meeting.

See you all there.

FTC7 - usually. But I'd argue these have been anything but usual times for SNG.

Taverham - me and andsoforth disagree, but I don’t see how the deal currently goes through. 22% is a huge chunk of a company, and surely Vin/ADVT would have to be on board. There could easily be another 3% who don’t like the NFC deal (especially with where their SP is right now), so would NFC really risk owning potentially less than 75% of a company, meaning they’d ultimately be powerless and unable to pass any resolutions?!

My opinion is that the deal gets sweetened.

andsoforth - I can’t recall a takeover where the main shareholder (in this case Vin and ADVT with 22.3%!) weren’t on board and agreeable to it! And why would they right now… NFC’s bid is effectively no better than their own?!

Let’s hope so, Burstead.

Whatever we might all think about SNG these days, the likelihood is there will be another Covid type virus in the future, so they ought to be getting the programs “ACTIV” again.

Axe - hurrah indeed. In London today and also tomorrow (for the cricket!) and it was chaos today. Great atmosphere, though.

Urraca - fair point on Vin's personal holding. But ADVT's £2 stake will mean they need more than the current 217p?

I don't think I am coming across as negative. Just reasoned. Maybe I'm trying to temper my expectations to avoid any potential disappointment. But I can assure you I am long on SAA and very much hoping this comes off.

Just to add, the market clearly agrees with me otherwise the SP would be more than 193p.

Urraca - are you trying to suggest I am deramping SAA?! I have told you I doubled up at 215p. Strange way of being negative.

Anyway, NFC need 90% of shareholders to agree to this to make it compulsory. Sure, they can get the other 77.7% and ADVT couldn't necessarily block anything (75%) but ADVT could probably quite easily get that addition 2.7% right now. In addition, do NFC really want such a large shareholder who is against them from the start?

I don't know where you got 40p from as her in price? She/ADVT loaded up their big chunk of shares at £2 in January. The NFC SP currently means the bid is 217p. She is not getting a massive chunk of NFC "essentially for free"?! She has paid a lot of money for her SAA shares.

You clearly can't have a reasoned debate. I think something will happen that will ultimately be positive. But it won't be the current terms that have been offered and there is plenty left to go on this just yet. All my opinion.

For those new to this stock, I meant to say that Vin Murria/ADVT own 22.3% of SAA, which NFC will need. So they have to be on board with all of this. I don’t see that happening with NFC’s SP where it is.

andsoforth - I can’t believe that Vin Murria/ADVT will accept it. At one point today with the NFC SP down at 1020p, it was worth less than their own bid!

This deal isn't happening, at least in its current format.

I said to a fellow investor when the NFC offer was announced that it was far too heavily weighted with stock (only 16% cash!), meaning any negative move in NFC's share price impacting severely what is ultimately paid for SAA.

S4 Capital do a 50/50 stock/cash split for their acquisitions. This would have been better.

With NFC's SP now falling by the day, I don't see how they can up the offer continuing with stock. It will have to be a much higher cash element. Already, they would have to double the cash payment from 40p to 80p just to get back to the original 247.5p.

Lots of potential outcomes here, some of which could be:
1. NFC up their offer, based more on cash.
2. They maintain their offer, which is now effectively the same as ADVT's (perhaps less, if looking at NAVs).
3. They withdraw their offer completely.
4. Another bidder comes in, able to snap SAA up for 230-250p but for an all cash offer).
5. It all completely collapses and the SP goes back to 140p.

There's plenty more possible outcomes, of course. Would be very interested to hear other people's thoughts and possible scenarios?

Manifesto - IMO impossible to say at this stage.

IF we ever get that ACTIV P2 data and it is good AND the US get us on a replacement P3 trial, then a TO could be well north of our all-time highs.

I quite like the GSK/Affinivax deal... $2.1bn upfront, then another $1.2bn in milestone payment and if it all works. If the scenario I mention above happens, then I'd be happy with £3-5 upfront and the same again in milestone payments if it passed P3!

But it's all guesswork. Right now I think we should probably only be valued at 50p...after all, we don't have much at this very moment! If we get ACTIV P2 data and a P3 trial, I think we could be well north of £1, with a TO expectation much higher than that.