Member Info for Doc83

Wigster - “let no good deed go unpunished”!

There are still many potential positives. But it could be a long wait.

If you still believe there could be a positive outcome but think it will take and while and don’t want to wait, go invest elsewhere and come back in a year or whatever.

If you don’t believe there are any positives to come, then sell and move on to something that is going to make you some money.

We all had our rant in the weeks/months after that fateful day in February. Time to move on.

ACTIV might be finished. But there could be another set of trials created.

Humanigen down 65% in pre market trading in the US. Unfortunately, I know exactly how their shareholders must be feeling right now.

"SP up 12% as we speak"

I love it when Dumbpunter posts.

Andrewpcapp - I agree.

Try to imagine how the market will react to:
a) very good A2 P2 data and
b) news of a new paid for trial(s).

That kind of news is not going to mean the SP only going up a few pence.

Of course, if we don't get that news, the future would look very bleak. But for those that think that might happen, then they probably shouldn't be invested.

Yes, the BOD were very clear with their answer. 10’s of thousands of doses ready and waiting.

All the details are there on page 23 and 24 of the annual report (see Brand’s link below).

This bit confirms they can be exercised in the event of a TO:
“In the event of a “good leaver” event or a change of control of the Company, the LTIP awards may vest early, but only to the extent that, in the opinion of the Committee, the performance conditions have been satisfied at that time.”

Plenty of detail on there about what the performance targets were for the 2018-21 LTIP. I assume it will be similar for these options.

At the end of the day, if Synairgen don’t get positive results from the next trial(s) (providing we get on one), then the company will be toast and the directors and senior team won’t be getting any incentives ever again.

Andybe4… BUSTED!

Ghia - FWIW I hope you contribute and check in more often than every 3 months.

I’m definitely more optimistic post AGM, but I’m not going to get carried away and think I’ll be making millions in the next few months. I’m still slightly nervous about us getting on another trial, regardless of what RM might have intimated. I’ll believe it when I see it, is now my mantra with Synairgen and to stop myself being disappointed!

Ghia - I tend to agree with most of what you’ve said today but do think we could easily see 50p+ on the back of news of a new trial. If we can get on two trials and the ACTIV P2 data is good, hopefully a fair bit more than 50p. Always hard to judge these things, however, companies who have drugs that are in a phase 3 trial(s) are surely valued a fair bit higher than our current market cap?

Also, I just can’t believe we’d get what will hopefully be good ACTIV P2 data and a trial, and still be languishing down at 30-40p.

I recall something else from the AGM now that SSH said. Something along the lines that drugs and research for respiratory diseases were seen as boring and there was little focus on them. Now, it is completely the opposite. Hopefully that should mean we continue to get some support to get this over the line, even if it does take years.

I also tend to agree with Ghia’s assessment, at least with regards to timescales.

However, I do think the SP will handsomely re-rate on receiving ACTIV P2 data and hopefully a new trial. My best guess, good P2 data takes the SP up to between 50-60p, and news of a new trial(s) as much as £1+.

I’ll play this game for a bit of fun on a wet Saturday evening!

Worse case:
3 months - still no ACTIV P2 data.
6 months - ACTIV P2 data received but merely average with no new trials.
1yr - still frantically trying to find a free trial.
2yr - cash raise needed otherwise it’s the end of Synairgen.

Best case:
3 months - ACTIV P2 data finally received, and it’s AMAZING!
6 months - on two new paid for trials, inpatient and outpatient.
1yr - Covid has flared back up again BIG TIME, the trials are going incredibly well and Synairgen are encouraged to apply for EUA because the world urgently needs SNG001.
2yr - SNG001 confirmed as a life saver, full authorisation granted and a bidding war ensues. Pfizer and AstraZeneca fight it out with bids around £20 billion or £100 per share.

Realistic case:
3 months - ACTIV P2 data received and it’s decent.
6 months - invited to join new trial that has replaced ACTIV.
1yr - no real news, we are in the thick of the trial. Long shot of a bid from large pharma who want to take an educated punt.
2yr - drug is proven to work and bids come in from multiple large pharma cos.

*share the AGM post on other boards

Tommy - that’s great to hear, and I forgot to say that all were welcome to post on other boards.

I’ll admit, I thought he seemed slightly stand-offish. I can’t recall which question (possibly where we were pushing for more info on ACTIV and when we might get the data/could they do more etc) and he slightly snapped. All my own opinion. He just didn’t seem as much of a people person as the others, but I suppose he is a scientist and not a speaker.

In his defence, I did see him immediately after the Q&A proactively seek out one investor to answer his question in more detail on a one to one, so credit to him for that!

And thinking back, Iain Buchanan looked distinctly unimpressed when we were questioning him on how he had worked out such significant pay rises for everyone!

Hi Jint, a slightly unusual question at first glance perhaps, but what did you think of Phillip Monk?

Docdaneeka - yes, I couldn't quite believe that. But PM was adamant it was still being analysed, but I agree they are holding it until a decision is made. After all, this isn't 1000's of patients.

Graham - it is all coming back to me now, including the little one liners.

SS (who I personally found quite impressive) said “clearly there is more than just hope going on here” or words very similar.

Fazer - the BOD originally wanted them on there but said something like “following discussions with a small number of shareholders, we felt removing them would be the right thing to do”.

Now they say a small number of shareholders, but a small number of individual shareholders can have lots of shares. So perhaps Polygon?