Member Info for Doc83

Ghia - personally, I don’t think we’ll get any significant news prior to the AGM. Although good luck to them if there isn’t.

I think my point was more or less what you were saying, about managing news flow using things under your control to deliver material to a plan.
The ATS conference was a good example. Was the deep dive analysis market sensitive? Always a bit of a grey area and maybe not, but they clearly knew the results some days/weeks earlier, and it was more than a coincidence that an RNS landed the morning of the conference!

I think Tommy is right (15:51).

And news can definitely be arranged. SNG are masters at it… for example, conferences booked well in advance (where they clearly knew things) and then dropping the RNS in on the day.

There’s been a couple of days in the last month where we’ve seen a big jump and then lost it all. 24th May was another one.

I’m super pleased to see the rise today. I just want to wait a few days to see if it can hold on to the gains before I get too excited. This could simply be people buying into the Friday gains and news of Polygon buying more. Or investors buying in on the hope of some news at the AGM.

Yes, nice to see us over 30p. But not getting my hopes up just yet.

That day about a month ago where the SP shot up to 43p and then the next day went all the way back down to 26p was fairly depressing!

Yes, none of it a surprise to me and predicted from the start. Stock offers for companies are never a great idea, IMO.

Will be interesting to see if those II’s who were backing ADVT, and then rescinded it on the back of NFC’s (at the time) better offer, go back to supporting ADVT!

HSD - I suppose it would depend on the circumstances at the time. If we don’t get on any trials then investors might be thankful for 50p, or less!

I’m sure there are a few II’s that are well underwater and would want to just hold on for now.

That didn't read quite as I meant.

*I certainly would NOT accept a bid at less than £1!

HSD - yes, that's correct. 90% of shareholders have to agree to any takeover to force the remaining investors to part with their shares. Of course, Polygon are 27% of that 90%.

I suppose the point I was making and the question being, will there be 10% of shareholders that would decline a bid, for example, at less than £1?

I certainly wouldn't as things stand right now, but circumstances can change.

Seaboy - I don't see Polygon bidding for all of SNG. And certainly not waiting until February next year. Even by Synairgen's slow standards, we'd expect to get some news by then that should materially impact the SP, hopefully positively.

Also, they'd need to persuade 90% of shareholders to part with their shares to force the remaining 10% (i.e. me!) to part with theirs. I can't see that happening, and definitely not sub £1 etc.

FTC7 - that’s absolutely correct. But it’s taken them nearly 2.5 months to buy up another 2 million shares? That’s glacially slow. I don’t know what premium you’d pay by pushing it along a bit quicker, but I reckon it would be negligible, especially over such a long period of time. For me, that would be worth it to avoid potentially missing out (I suppose they’d still have 26% of the company!) if good news came out.

Anyway, you’re likely right as I can’t see any other reason to buy up shares so slowly.

I must admit to being slightly baffled (easily done with me!) by Polygon’s strategy.

I don’t think they want to make an outright bid. That would mean paying circa £2 per share (highest price paid in previous year etc etc). They could be buying to 29.9% and then waiting to make a cheap bid in 2023 when that highest price paid is pennies but so much could happen between now and then for that to make no sense.

So logic tells me they just want to get to that 29.9% mark so that they maximise their returns when the good news (that they presumably envisage) arrives. But surely just buy the shares now, or certainly faster than they are doing, because that news really could land anytime? I mean it’s been fairly range bound around these levels for weeks now, except for the odd spike up or down.

Whatever they are doing, it certainly isn’t going to affect my own thinking. They got it wrong like the rest of us and clearly have no inside information. However, it will be fascinating to see what they do at the AGM. Even for Polygon, they’ve put a fair chunk of money into this.

Urraca - do you really think this deal is still going through?

It’s now equivalent to less than £2 per share. No chance. And what I’ve been saying all along. The structure of the deal was all wrong. Far too much stock and not enough cash.

We’ll see who ends up right. I’ll hold my hands up and admit I was wrong if this deal goes through. My guess is no, not on these terms.

I think and hope ACTIV 2 P2 data is good but I don’t think it will be astronomically good. Surely if it was mind-blowingly good, the US would have pushed it along a bit quicker. It is slower than a snails pace right now.

Another bit of hope, at least with regards to ACTIV and US trials, is that the NIH mercilessly dropped SAB Biotherapeutics from the trials despite them successfully passing P2.

They could have easily done the same with Synairgen. Of course, they still might. If they do end up dropping us, then it would be pretty sh11tty of them to have given us such a slow death.

My hope is we get on some kind of new P3 trial and see a material uplift in the SP. HSD - I’m not talking £3-5. But 50-80p might be a start.

HSD - are you suggesting I’m an inexperienced investor?

I’ve said £3-5 would be very nice. But acknowledge even that price seems very far away right now.

And indeed, it is a 1200% rise from here. Perhaps I’m guilty of still having the £2 pre Feb RNS price stuck in my mind.

Andrewpcapp - Fair play for being honest.

I invested 20% of my portfolio, however it is growing rapidly as I’m fortunate to be able to pump decent amounts into it regularly.

But it was still a stinger when that nightmare February RNS landed. For me, the real pain was that the dream of mega millions was gone. Of course, this may still come good but those £75 per share numbers seem very far away.
That said, I have significantly increased my holding, so even £3-5 would be very nice.

Quite right, Docdaneeka.

It would have been nice for SNG to have held their hands up on the mistakes made. But there has been nothing, not even an apology.

I’m looking forward to the AGM. Not to cause trouble. But to ask some questions if given the opportunity. And also to see the whites of their eyes…There’s nothing quite like meeting people in the flesh to understand their competence and I reckon it will either make me buy or sell a stack of shares.

“Poly have direct contact with SNG and can discuss
any concerns in detail....They undoubtedly know a lot more than PI's.”

It hasn’t helped them so far, down c.80% on their initial investment.

“It does make you wonder why Polygon remain invested if the company are and have been as incompetent as some make out.”

Some of Polygon’s investors might consider them incompetent, given that they currently sit at a big loss on SNG.

Point being - don’t read too much into what Polygon are doing. They’ve got it wrong so far just like the rest of us.

And for those that say ah, yeah but it could still come good, yes (and I hope it does) but they would still have been vastly better off buying in their entire stake at 20p odd rather than £50m at £1.70+.

Axe - Hear hear, couldn’t have put it better myself.

Patagucci - I’m not even sure a 25% move would be much to talk about… 30p ish, we were much more just a few weeks back and it turned out to be nothing. I still think we’ll eventually get some really positive news but I might not believe it if/when it does actually arrive!