Member Info for Doc83

Hi Size, this is the latest note from Numis. No change to price target AFAIK.

"Synairgen reported a FY 2021 adjusted net loss of £48.2m (FC est. -£46.7m), the delta due to higher-than-expected R&D (c.£4.9m), which was partially offset by a higher R&D tax credit. Period-end cash was £33.8m (FC est. £37.0m). SPRINTER results, presented at the American Thoracic Society on 16 May, identify a responder group of higher risk patients and provide a strong clinical rationale to investigate SNG001 in a trial evaluating progression and/or mortality in such patients. Synairgen is focused on building collaborations with platform trial organisers and other relevant government, regulatory and corporate groups to identify and establish the optimal method of conducting further trials to confirm these findings and provide the evidence required for a regulatory submission. To achieve this, we recognise that this is likely only through partnership or inclusion on a government-sponsored trial. It is important to remember that SNG001 has potential against all respiratory viruses, not just SARS-CoV-2, and this may make it a more attractive therapeutic for inclusion in the platform trials if and when they pivot towards patients hospitalised due to a range of respiratory viruses such as influenza and RSV. Until such a catalyst occurs, we leave our target price under review but see substantial upside should this occur. We introduce FY 2022 forecasts, calling for an adjusted net loss of £23.7m and year-end cash of £10.3m. "

The big issue is that our fate is no longer in our hands. We are reliant upon others (free trials, JV or TO etc!) to get SNG001 to market. That usually means loyal and LTHs get shafted.

Size, I don’t entirely disagree. But I would argue SNG LTHs have already had to have a moderately sized dollop of patience.

It has a potential worth of more. But that’s the problem… it’s all potentially. Some of us would like to at least recover our losses before the big man comes calling.

I’m not expecting any news on ACTIV next week. Synairgen seem to have tried to manage our expectations by extending the timescales to some time in summer.

I did post the other day though that I’d have like to have asked them if they had received new guidance from the US on this, or if they were just guessing at summer. Hopefully I’ll get chance to ask at the AGM if we haven’t heard anything by then.

If you genuinely get through to RM I’ll eat my imaginary hat. All that being said, I obviously wish your mum a speedy recovery.

Size82 - I’m hoping you’re right!

Although I stand by my timeline. We’ll know which way this is going in the next few months. Polygon could be vital in ensuring we aren’t taken out or enter a JV on poor terms.

Philharvey - honestly not sure if that’s a legit first post or not. However, the longer all this goes on with the SP at this level, the higher the chance gets of it getting taken over at this level. Simply, LTHs will slowly be replaced by new holders who bought in at 20p and who might be happy with a 50p TO. Also, some LTHs might get fed up with the wait or have other life events that mean they have to sell.

I’d say the next few months are make or break for Synairgen, certainly as we know it. Why? Because in that time we should get ACTIV P2 data, know if we’re on a new ACTIV type US trial and/or platform trial. If those things don’t happen, I don’t know where Synairgen would go. They can’t afford their own trial so what would they do… TO or JV? But at what cost to LTHs?

Busy working but can you summarise a few key points from this?

Another groundbreaking contribution from FTC.

Sanchez- regardless, this has made things very interesting and very murky.

NFC’s offer is now effectively 224p. This was my issue from the very beginning with their offer… it was so intrinsically linked to their share price. S4 Capital on all their acquisitions make it a 50% stock and 50% cash offer. NFC’s 80% stock was always alarm bells for me. So, here we are with NFC and ADVT offering almost the same as each other. But, ADVT and SAA have burnt their bridges and despise each other, so I don’t think ADVT get the deal done. But equally, why would ADVT accept NFC’s offer that is no better than what they have offered?!

Intriguing and will be interesting to see how this plays out. One solution is for NFC to make it a better cash offer, rather than stock.

Brighty - As mentioned earlier, our negotiating position is very weak. We need great ACTIV P2 data and trial lined up to strengthen this.

You can definitely attend as a shareholder.

Just got out of a two hour long meeting and was not expecting to see 24p. Bear in mind £33m cash equates to 16-17p of the SNG SP?

Nothing changed for me. Ultimately we need news of a trial, JV, ACTIV P2 data… something actual and not just words, which is all SNG can/are giving us at the moment.

Size82 - that is indeed a possibility. I would just counter that if we don’t get at least a platform trial, we would be a sitting duck for a TO or JV with less than good terms for us. We would have a very poor negotiating position… our cash “reducing” down, no trials, no EUA etc.

Ah, that’s ok then. Because my use of the phrase was just an example of what could have been in today’s statement and a figure of speech. Using, spending, burning, losing, call it what you will.

Although Finncap disagree with your better than expected cash position. £33.8m vs their forecast of £37m.

But it’s all irrelevant. £33m cash is not enough to run another trial of our own, so we need a free platform trial as a minimum. Otherwise the future will look very bleak indeed.

Wigster - it’s analysts only I think. Hopefully not all from the in house brokers!

I did say something like I hoped the general statement wasn’t just “for example” “we’re burning through the cash and continuing discussions…”.

Unfortunately that was pretty well the gist of it. But I live in hope.

I don’t think I’ve mentioned anything about billions, though. That will only come from an extremely minuscule chance of an EUA.

Here are Finncap’s thoughts.

Synairgen reported a FY 2021 adjusted net loss of £48.2m (FC est. -£46.7m), the delta due to higher-than-expected R&D (c.£4.9m), which was partially offset by a higher R&D tax credit. Period-end cash was £33.8m (FC est. £37.0m). SPRINTER results, presented at the American Thoracic Society on 16 May, identify a responder group of higher risk patients and provide a strong clinical rationale to investigate SNG001 in a trial evaluating progression and/or mortality in such patients. Synairgen is focused on building collaborations with platform trial organisers and other relevant government, regulatory and corporate groups to identify and establish the optimal method of conducting further trials to confirm these findings and provide the evidence required for a regulatory submission. To achieve this, we recognise that this is likely only through partnership or inclusion on a government-sponsored trial. It is important to remember that SNG001 has potential against all respiratory viruses, not just SARS-CoV-2, and this may make it a more attractive therapeutic for inclusion in the platform trials if and when they pivot towards patients hospitalised due to a range of respiratory viruses such as influenza and RSV. Until such a catalyst occurs, we leave our target price under review but see substantial upside should this occur. We introduce FY 2022 forecasts, calling for an adjusted net loss of £23.7m and year-end cash of £10.3m.

wpa5 - I suppose summer does technically start on 21st June! But my opinion is that they don’t have the foggiest when they’ll get the data and have given themselves another vague deadline.

Andrewpcapp - is that aimed at me?

Edowling- prepare to be surprised”

“Synairgen expects to receive the Phase 2 data from ACTIV-2 in the first half of this year…”.

Brand - they were indeed FY financial results. But they were also a general company update and there was nothing new (that I could see) in the update other than ACTIV P2 data being pushed back.

I am not surprised in the slightest the SP has fell back. I have made no secret of the fact I am long SNG and have increased my holding post 21/2. But at some point we are going to need something substantial from the company.