Member Info for Doc83

With many less shares!

Gunto, did you not read what I just put!? You’re really embarrassing yourself (more than ever now) now. Those of us who have been negative/pessimistic have been on the money.

They will struggle to raise the cash and certainly not without diluting the regular PI into oblivion. There is yet again another change to the plans. Do you want to have a go at giving your balanced/realistic view on the outlook for SNG?

Gunto, I said they’d likely be a suspension if the annual report was late. Let’s try to get the basics right.

Do you want to pick up on Fruits and his NDAs and JV tripe?!

Gunto: “You got nothing right Doc83. No suspension.

A fundraise for the P2. No surprise.”

No surprise to you? Some classics from Gunto…

“This so called “epic tale” has a couple of years left with P2 trials.”

“Doc83 AGM delay may be a result of misguided investor movement against CEO. Misguided is the perfect word as there has been a basic lack of understanding surrounding article 70.”

“All that said there may well be a JV lurking behind all of this silence. Two companies are working with Synairgen on UNIVERSAL, AZ and Janssen. Then there is the interest in pandemic preparedness from the Department of Health & Social Care. The company might be spinning more plates than just the organisation of complex trials. 

The update will be interesting. I am sure we can all agree on that.”

And quoting this gem!: “The Company’s cash resources are sufficient to cover its plans to design and establish data from an observational study and two investigator-led/Synairgen-sponsored Phase 2 clinical trials, including manufacture of active and placebo for use in these trials.”

LOL.

What happened to the statement at the AGM last year where we were told we had plenty of cash to run the P2 trials? In fact Simon Shaw gleefully told us “we are in a fortunate position to have the cash to do such trials”.

They’ll never be able to raise cash from the market for this. Will TFG stump up? I doubt it. The company is in serious strife. They’ve had to prepare an alternative strategy in the case they can’t raise the cash this year, but what exactly does this mean:

“…therefore the directors have prepared an alternative forecast which maintains a budget for further pre-clinical preparatory work that would produce data to undertake a fund raise in 2025, whilst significantly reducing research and development, and administrative spend.”

Gunto, don’t dare try to defend this. Spacman was on the money, with the going concern part absolutely why they delayed putting this out, and therefore breaching timelines for the AGM - They don’t have cash to run this (once again changed) planned trial.

Do you really see this as a positive statement?

No one has picked up on this but then?

“The directors have identified that the Group will need to raise further funds during 2024 in order to conduct the planned Phase 2 clinical trial in mechanically ventilated patients. The ability of the Group to secure a fund raise in 2024 cannot be guaranteed, therefore the directors have prepared an alternative forecast which maintains a budget for further pre-clinical preparatory work that would produce data to undertake a fund raise in 2025”

This was valued at £42m yesterday. Now that might have been overvalued. However, today we have a market cap of £32m with plenty of cash in the bank. Additionally, I like the fact they’re progressing a Heron 2. I’m not convinced on renewables but details have been extremely light from MB on this, so I could be swayed. I expect Gobi to be a duster.

In summary, today we seem better value, are well capitalised and have plans in place including to generate revenue. My concerns? I’m hoping DQE/PC play fair.

But as a result of the above, I moved quickly yesterday evening to increase my holding to avoid dilution, of course at a cost. I’ll be looking to reduce my exposure if this moves back towards 4p, bearing in mind the market cap will be so much more with all these new shares that have been issued.

Cybertron - can you tell me how you calculated that 3.4p floor?

Jazim - how are you calculating their NAV, and what figure do you arrive at?

LOL. I mean, I’m known as negative, but this… 😂

It's very clear that the brokers were controlling the SP today. No stock and SP that has just had a raise and has fallen 40% behaves in such a way, flatlining for the entire day. My guess, allow those that have stumped up last night to get out with 10% profit, encourage the PI in to help flush it all through and provide liquidity. They might continue "supporting" it for the remainder of the week, but beyond that they'll let it go and find it's own course, up or down. I reckon steadily up. It would also help if MB releases a (few) very positive RNS soon.

It's almost like some form of underwriting going on from the brokers here, holding the price for those that want to stag their shares taken up in the placing last night and take a quick 10% profit. Hopefully, once this overhang of sellers is gone, they'll let it loose.

Ugh, I'm sounding like Cybertron :/

"Why would you buy now when the retail offer is 2p?"

If you think you'll get massively scaled back to virtually no shares, and if you think the shares on the market continue to rise from here.

Previous raise took c.1 month to rise 60% above placing price. Then 3 months before it was up close to 200%. I'm not saying that will happen now, but I do expect it to steadily climb over the next few days/weeks.

Cyber - probably right. But also bear in mind that Petrovis took part in the last raise at 2.5p, and are currently underwater with those shares!

"I'm confused. Is it worth messing about for the retail offer of 2p (limited availability ) or just buy as many as I want now for not much difference. Sorry if this seems a stupid question . Sid"

Sid - well, you're paying a 15% premium today. But you'll likely be limited as to how much you get in the retail offer. If the price continues to push on, there is an argument to say just buy now. The £400k retail offer is small and likely priced in now, so certainly shouldn't dent the price.

Ah, I see. Yes, IIRC I got 70% ish of my request, so only a small amount above the 67%.

K3VMC - apologies, understood. I also got 75% (well, 74.998%!) of my order. To coin a Thornogson phrase, I am now also up to my eyes in MATD.

I'm not sure I understand your question, Jazim.

In summary, at the previous raise, if you put in an order for £10k worth, you were allocated £6,700.

I suspect this time you will get less than 67%, but I'm guessing.

Master, contact your broker ASAP. I'm already sorted my end.

KV3MC - the raise last night, allocations were scaled back to 75% due to good demand. The retail offer is limited to £400k worth and I reckon will be scaled back severely. I would guess you'll be lucky to get half your request.