Member Info for Doc83

Velocoraptor - Hamm has been told this numerous times but refuses to build it into his calculations. Have you any idea why he might be doing that???

As far as the silence goes it's the endgame this week, for better or worse. We'll either have our annual report/update or we won't, which would likely mean a suspension.

Vacation for a few months?! I doubt you’ll miss much, WOS. Maybe a penny or two either side of where we are now… 😉

It’s all very bizarre. They have delayed the AGM to the point where they will be in breach of regulations, so there must be a good reason for that.

If the accounts really are ready to report, then perhaps they really do have something highly positive being worked on. But I still don’t see how they can flout the rules… “Sorry, Guv, I’ve signed an NDA for a potential partnership so screw you and your regulatory requirements!”

"If as has been suggested on here that Shareholders have been told in correspondance from SNG that results will be released in H1 then why no AGM date?"

The only logical and sensible explanation is that they are NOT 100% confident the annual report will be ready by 30th June. Because as you say, if they were and have them all signed off already, why no AGM to discuss them?! Unless that oft talked about NDA magically expires by then!

"best be in early imho because this will move fast and hamm’s calcs pretty much say that"

Asher - Hamm continues to ignore the fact we will get around half the value of a barrel of oil once we've paid our dues. Hamm - why do you keep doing this? Trying to mislead?

Hedge funds do not have to have a hedge on every stock they own. But the point is, we don’t know if they did or not. We do know that they’ve dropped £60m into SNG. Even for TFG, that is a lot of money. Funds fight for every basis point of performance in a highly competitive industry. If there is a way to get something back for SNG, they’ll do everything in their powers to do so. Of course, they might still think leaving RM and the BOD to get on with it is fine. Or not.

Right, I’m off out early for the England match and a few drinks!

Fruits - so we don't know for sure that they had a hedge specifically on Synairgen?

To quote you from yesterday: "There is zero evidence to back up" anything you say. But we do know their long position is approximately £64m deep.

At the end of the day we are on the same side and hopefully we'll have some much needed good news imminently. But IMO TFG actually have been sat here for 2yrs hoping like the rest of us this comes good, with no hedge/insurance in place.

Fruits, my post from 18/04/23:

Polygon TR1 history below.

Assumptions: Polygon only had to report once at 10%. Therefore, I have assumed they paid the average 12 month SP prior to the earliest TR1, which came out at 1.547. The date of their first TR1 happens to also be very close to this.

I have also used the closing offer price on Bloomberg on the TR1 date. It's feasible Polygon will have paid a little bit less, but not enough to dramatically change the numbers.

05/10/22 - 28.154% / 56,696,000 shares / Price £0.17 / Total cost £383,138

14/06/22 - 27.040% / 54,442,242 / £0.273 / £557,101

04/04/22 - 26.026% / 52,401,577 / £0.2276 / £335,516

07/03/22 - 25.294% / 50,927,428 / £0.2596 / £519,200

02/03/22 - 24.301% / 48,927,428 / £0.185 / £379,250

22/02/22 - 23.282% / 46,877,428 / £0.2538 / £368,010

21/02/22 - 22.562% / 45,427,428 / £0.2718 / £2,439,119

03/02/22 - 18.105% / 36,453,481 / £1.827 / £3,751,710

11/01/22 - 17.085% / 34,400,000 / £1.924 / £5,868,200

17/11/21 - 15.571% / 31,350,000 / £1.765 / £816,203

05/11/21 - 15.341% / 30,887,562 / £1.81 / £4,076,737

25/10/21 - 14.222% / 28,635,221 / £1.994 / £3,318,106

20/10/21 - 13.396% / 26,971,176 / £1.671 / £3,962,235

04/10/21 - 12.218% / 24,600,000 / £1.38 / £3,312,000

09/09/21 - 11.026% / 22,200,000 / £1.562 / £3,449,771

05/08/21 - 10.004% / 199,914,402 / £1.547 (12m average SP) / £30,926,758

TOTAL SHARES - 56,696,000 (28.154%)

TOTAL COST - £64,463,054

AVERAGE SP COST - £1.137

- The biggest single increase of shares was on 21/02/22, nearly 9m shares added at c.27p (we all know what happened on this date).

- The biggest top up in monetary terms was on 11/01/22 of over 3m shares at £1.924.

- They need another 3,703,860 to get to 29.99%.

- At 8p this would have cost £296k (additional 0.46% to current overall cost).

- At current price of 13p, total cost would be £481k (additional 0.75% to current overall cost).

Over to you. Can I now see details of what hedge(s) Polygon/TFG had/have in place and I'm sure we'll be able to work out roughly what they made/lost?

Thanks, Fruits. Very helpful of you.

Before I do, are you confirming there is confirmation in their annual report that they had a hedge in place on SNG?

You said it was a good opportunity to buy at 4.8p you loon.

Fruits, I’ll get right on it. In the meantime, can you post me (or the link) to where I can find out exactly what hedges TFG has in place for SNG?

30th June. But that’s a Sunday, so presumably we’ll get them by next Friday.

Fruits - you’re hilarious. You chastise me saying there’s not a shred of proof for TFG’s average in price being £1, when we have a bunch of TR1’s we can at least look to. Then you make completely unfounded assertions that they will have had hedges/insurance policies or whatever else in place, that we really don’t know about! We’ll have to just agree to disagree on it. Although “underwater” is the correct term for a holding that is worth less than you paid for it ;)

“There is zero evidence to back up the "their average in price is c.£1"

Fruits - Utter, utter nonsense.

The numerous TR1’s are a good place to start! I remember going through all of them to try and work it out. We obviously don’t know what they paid for their initial purchase until they reached the reporting threshold, but thereafter it was pretty much bang on the £1 mark. Happy to dig them all out again and re-run the calcs. Yes, they could have had some kind of costly hedge in there, but that goes against their “high conviction” approach and seems unlikely.

I’ll tell you now, though - it’s many multiples of 5p whatever way of adding up you use.

And WTF has the rest of their fund and performance got to do with it… does that mean it’s impossible for them to be underwater on any stock they own? FFS.

I suppose it’s feasible that with what appears to be further delays to our trials starting, TFG might have decided enough is enough and told the BOD to explore the potential for a sale. Again, just a thought, don’t all burst a blood vessel. It’s certainly the only way I can see how TFG get out in the short to medium term, bear in mind their average in price is c.£1.

Pmjh said earlier it’s obviously weighing on my mind. I’m frustrated and annoyed by the BOD, but actually I’m quite excited. One way or another, this painful journey is coming to an end. If it’s bad news, it’s not going to ruin me financially and the real pain was had in Feb 2022. If it’s good, what a bonus, especially given that I am leaning towards the negative end of the outcome spectrum.

Fruits - we’re repeating ourselves. If they have been approached for a TO, that would require an RNS and investors informing, with the board saying whether they recommend it or not. If it’s a JV that has been confirmed, that also needs announcing immediately. If it’s a potential JV/partnership of some kind that is being negotiated but not yet confirmed, that should not stop them reporting 2023’s numbers and holding an AGM.

And what exactly is afoot?! It’s a place to share information/thoughts/ideas. None of this is disruptive like that child Josh.

Spacman, I postulated months back that we might not even get a F2F AGM this year. The attitude and just blatant ignoring of investors, some of which they know as genuine LTHs, says to me they have no intention of meeting us again. I hope that’s because of some deal in the background (that doesn’t royally shaft PI’s) that means they won’t have to hold any AGMs in future!

“Doc83 how comes you never say anything to your buddy professional for posting non stop drivel also false window never even have I seen you pull him up on his false postings”

Cyberplonk, if you can be bothered to go back and look at mine and Prof’s dealings with each other on SNG, you’ll see we have no time for each other. But regardless of what you say to Prof you’ll just be encouraging him to continue. But regardless of all that, I tend to agree with Prof that we’re in a weak negotiating position and there could well be a raise if we don’t start producing damn quick. Just my opinion and no reason for anyone to give themselves a heart attack over it. I hope I’m wrong and this rerates to your 10-15p.

C’mon, Nige! I’m sure he’d make sure our ambassador got the job done!

Maybe 4Kandles mate who is seeing SB later on can pose these questions/assertions from LH?!