Member Info for Doc83

Another large delayed trade that has to be a buy looking at the spread from earlier. Would also be lovely if we have an II loading up, and a TR1 would go down very well.

3 trades today so far... quite incredible the complete lack of interest in a company which has so many moving parts and potential.

I can easily see the 3-4p. Maybe a touch more with news of DQE cracking on with things. But I still don't see the massive rerate some talk of (at least within the next year), unless something like Gobi is successful. If that happens, which is a slim chance, then all bets are off.

This looks like a buy. Delayed reporting, price at the time was 2.5-2.6p.

Stas , also looks like Shore Cap starting to stand aside. They were quite clearly controlling the SP post raise, they will claim to create stability. But hopefully the brakes are being released.

Well we know MATD is horrifically leaky.

Are there really any "derampers" on here at the moment? Prof has disappeared, BP has always been glass half full, I like to think I'm balanced but have made it clear I'm positive from these levels. We had that oddball who was claiming it would go sub 2p which was faintly ridiculous.

But on the whole I don't think there's anyone really trolling and/or negative on the board right now.

Stas - on Petrovis, in my time here I know they took up $2m+ in the July 2021 raise at 3.5p and then $1m in the Feb 2023 raise at 2.5p. So they could well be underwater here. I've always been a little surprised they haven't actively helped out (as far as we know) MATD more with all the issues and problems we've had to navigate. Maybe now is the time where they will make a nice return on their investment...

BBB03 reported.

Thornogson - hopefully. But you'd think a lot of that should be priced in. We've had plenty of positive news in recent weeks but it didn't do a jot for the SP. I suppose you could argue that was because a raise was expected (not by many on here, though!). But it does make me wonder, for the big rerate people talk about (say 10p+), at least in the short to medium term, will it need something like Gobi hitting the motherload.

“Its because it seems the majority here are in the de-ramp camp.”

Stas, let’s not forget that you were firmly in the deramp crew until very recently!

Sarcasm, MrCosts? I can't tell anymore.

They both talk exceptionally well. And Rick Rule (from what I know of him) doesn't tend to pick a dud.

It is frustrating to see the SP where it is, but I have more faith in this company than just about any other that I own.

The biggest question mark on numbers has to be what we will achieve for a barrel of oil. I’m more pessimistic and think China and the MG won’t pay anywhere near market rates, maybe as little as half. But it’s obviously a guess, just like most things on here. I was also talking about the next 12 months, so production figures I think are fair but will hopefully go much higher in years to come. I think I saw 5000bopd eventually in one note.

I’m not pricing in anything on Gobi, simply assuming it’ll be a duster. Apparently it has marginally less COS than Velociraptor.

Renewables, no idea.

But we could be pleasantly surprised. However, I now have a few too many of these than I really want post raise, so I’m hoping it’ll quite quickly run up so I can offload a few.

Stas - why the aggression? You're better than that. We're all here guessing and you've been bandying around figures.

On my plucked, random numbers - here is the flow rate for Heron. Again, they talk about methods to increase this, but it seems a good place to start:

“The field was discovered in 2019 by the Heron-1 discovery well. This well was tested and achieved a peak flow rate of over 800 bbl/day of oil with no formation water.”

I'm trying to find the PSC agreement, but I'm reasonably confident that's there or thereabouts.

I did make an error, though. I didn't convert $ to £, so divide my numbers by 1.26!

Stas - I'm fairly confident on the PSC figure. On the price China and the MG will pay, do you really think it will be anywhere near the going rate?

Stas - IMO we need to judge MATD in the here and now, as you have suggested yourself previously. We are hopefully moving towards production, which will mean we can have a stab at valuing the company for the 12 months ahead. Still a lot of guesswork, though.

IMO - we won't get anywhere near the going rate for a barrel of oil. We have to offload our oil to the Chinese (who are already getting flooded with cheap Russian oil) or the Mongolian government. So maybe half the price?! Then the PSC, I believe we keep 55%. There's also what bopd we'll achieve - I've read anything from 500-1000 bopd per well.

Throw all that together, call it $25/barrel (after discounts and PSC) x c.550,000 barrels yearly for 2 wells = £13.75m.

They'll be other costs/expenses but who knows at this stage. Stick an earnings multiple of 6-8x = £82.5m-£110m or 5.5p-7.5p?

Very rough figures, of course, and more wells will greatly increase this but will take time and money. There's also the renewables stuff, which MB has been very vague on.

Stas - mostly fair comments. Although I would argue for MATD to have been valued at £388 million back in 2011 with no oil sounds like it was obscenely overvalued. But it's well before my time here, so maybe there was some reason/hope why it was valued so.

But I'll be dancing in the streets if we hit 26p from here!

Well said, Scottydogg. And especially for what is a simple notification of someone flipping their shares into an ISA!

They do like their meetings, ceremonies and general flannel!

But looks positive, potentially ready for next year. Just as Heron 1-10 is frothing up with oil, hopefully.