Member Info for Doc.Daneeka

Weather set fair for you Doc83 - let's hope for more fireworks. So many match winners in the squad you just wonder whose turn it'll be today. (without counting any chickens of course)

Fair point Dunk - intemperate language and apologies if anyone offended. I'm carrying a little extra timber myself at the moment which is entirley down to lack of exercise and eating/drinking too much. When the metabolic clock switches off you have to fight to keep the weight off. Point stands though that obesity is a huge killer - however it's arrived at and my "fit" friends had good outcomes from C19 as they're all runners and cyclists. So the lack of a 50+ booster this autumn will be a calculated gamble. Not one I think we should be taking in my opinion because there will still be some unknowable vulnerabilities in this cohort. They'll change it quickly if Covid starts to spread significantly

Thanks Brand and Tommy but not sure why you'r reposting the study now and then flagging up the preposterous recruitment end date of November 2023 when we've just seen data from 100 of the 1000 needed to achieve an end in Nov 23.

Unless the trial listing is wrong - or they've already recruited 700 but decided to analyse just 100 of them - which is incredibly unlikely given there still seem to just be 2 hospitals involved in the trial - one of which ( Dundee) announced it had started recruiting about 10 minutes ago.

An end of recruitment date of November 2023 is for the birds. We'll see of course and I'd be really happy to learn that the trial is open at more locations but it seems as if all of the trialists so far have been recruited by Southampton Uni Hosp.

And remember that the second season - if you're at the same hospitals - will be even more difficult to recruit as we know they've used pre -existing patients and in most cases these guys and gals will roll back through the doors in 3 or 4 months time.

Fruits - we all know what "fit" means in terms of any likely health outcome. We've seen that fat people - to take just one cohort, but you could equally say smokers or drinkers or poor people - had very difficult outcomes from Covid. The UNIVERSAL study itself showed a ridiculously high percentage of obesity in trialists. Was it 40% ? Unless of course the genetic predisposition or "wrong genes " as you quaintly term it, also includes not being able to stop feeding doughnuts into your face then "fitness" is hugely more significant than any little genetic frailties.

"And as for the "quite a few who tested positive had no symptoms at all", over 50% of those that tested DID have symptoms. " I said quite a few and you've cleverly confirmed that it was nearly 50% who had no symptoms. Well done .

The point stands - and I'm not joining in your faux outrage at the history of the entire pandemic but just updating the incorrect data posted by you and others in the immediate aftermath - and saying that 33 of the most vulnerable people in society got the new BA 2.86 and just one was hospitalised - nearly 50% had no symptoms and they're all well now. This lot were jabbed again in the spring and the boosters - in a robust statistically undeniable single case example - seem to be holding up incredibly well. Which some of us think is great news.

Off to the GP for my autumn booster today. Passed on the last one which was offered in the spring when it felt like C19 was finally out of our lives. First time I'd made the decision and I'm grateful to still be on the list. The initial vax shots and first booster protected me brilliantly when Omicron came knocking on the door on New Years's Eve in 2021. Ten of us caught it at a raucous dinner party and everyone got through in good shape. All mid to late 50s and fit - apart from my T1 diabetes. We'd all had all the jabs and everyone had been boosted within 3 months of the infection.

My sister and brother in law - by contrast - caught Omicron in the late summer and nearly a year after their last boosters and they had a tougher time of it. Bed-bound for a few days and still testing positive 2 weeks later.

We saw in subsequent outbreaks, in the US and China particularly, that Omicron was still a killer in unprotected communities, previous infection but the fantastic vaccine programme meant the UK and most of the developed world was in really good shape.

The signifance now is that we have several new Omicron variants on the loose and as yet we have no real idea of how widespread the latest outbreak might be or how dangerous the variants might be - but if it does take off there will be huge numbers of people who might be vulnerable but haven't had a jab for a very long time. All of those dinner party friends who will probably still be ok - as they're fit but they won't be eligible for the autumn booster and will face whatever comes next with dwindling protection. A study in May -showed 60% protection one month after the booster dose - and only 13% at nine months. ( a mean figure across all jabs) I'm not sure my friends have ben jabbed at all since the start of 2023.

The really good news is tha the most vulnerable are still really well protected. Only one resident of the 33 confirmed cases of BA 2.86 at the Dereham care home required hospitalisation ( correcting some reports of here of 20% hospitalised ) and all are well now. Quite a few who tested positive had no symptoms at all. Too early to say if this reflects the true picture with Pirola - but very encouraging for all but the doom merchants who still have this drug and share pegged firmly to an impending apocalypse

Td " They’ve reported results on 100 that’s not the same as they’ve only recruited 100 "

yes we know this - but it's still likely this is most of the winter 22/23 harvest. How long ago would they need to draw a line and start the analysis to have reported in mid September. ? March maybe or April perhaps - and since then the RVI wards have been empty. So it's reasonable to surmise that they might have 50 or 60 more but not many past this and unless they add more hospitals for 23/24 it will become a long grind.

Need someone to interpret that UNIVERSAL slide. To a layman it looks like a predictable and not particularly helpful set of conclusions. The stat that 43% of RVI admissions are obese might help someone in the Dept of Stop Filling Your Face It's Gonna Kill You - but I'm sure they knew this already. 65% of them needed oxygen on admission and all infections roughly take the same time to clear. Again - information that was probably know for the different conditions.

Clearly the intention is to look for areas of undiscovered consistency across the viruses - and they've found that but without the novel biomarkers that they say are "greatly needed" in Conclusion #5 it's difficult to see what the trial has achieved. Only 100 patients through the door too. Which means a long haul to reach the 1000 the trial needs. (obviously they'll have had a few more since the 100 cut-off was made ) At some point they will also report on cost to the NHS - and that might be helpful in defending SNG's relative expense compared to the tabs and mabs

If Synairgen has been using this data to help design the new mini P2s it's difficult to see how any of it would really help beyond confirming that in terms of how a range of RVIs present at hospital and in length of stay - all viruses ARE alike .

Great posts Fruits and Tp on this. I've posted my thoughts on timeline before. As long as the trial designs are complete or almost complete now, there's no reason why they shouldn't fill in a single winter season. The regulatory setup should be very fast, using SNG with its impeccable safety record across a range of sites that will almost all have been involved in SGO16/18. Working with friends effectively to deliver small trials of a drug they know - and which in many cases will be targeted at existing patients who fit an exact profile. If they get over the line before the end of Spring they'd still need time to crunch the numbers so we would expect that to take a few months. SG016 took almost 4 months to deliver results ( FPD 31st March - to July 20th ) and it's unlikely to be quicker with multiple trials to cross reference.

It's high risk though. P2s usually recruit more patients and without absolutely precise enrollment just one or two patients could produce the wrong result. That's what they're working on of course and hopefully UNIVERSAL has played its part but with more money they might have doubled the number for each of the trials.

July/August 24 for the first readout but as some of us have posted before we should get a good steer from the UNIVERSAL trial. Time doesn't really matter now as long as the company stays in business. It would be good to have the P3 ready for the winter of 24/25 but if the P2s work we'll have a significant partner by then and that will speed things along. We were trying to catch the Covid tide but that has ebbed away for the time being at least. The infections we chase now will always be with us and effective new treatments will always be in demand.

Slightly baffling that Dr Monk says how important multi-viral testing is and says "there is still a paucity of data on the extent and burden of RVIs " but doesn't mention the work being done in the UNIVERSAL trial. I mean it's not a particularly scholarly piece and UNIVERSAL - to a layman at least does seem to be doing exactly what he says is needed and what the entire article is about.... Not Synairgen's study maybe so he's keeping it on the down low. Kudos for armamentarium though. Never seen it before. Our medicos may be more familair I guess but it's a big gun to pull out in your last sentence. :)

Evening Fruits. Hope you have a better sleep tonight. Ovaltine maybe.

SNG and Synairgen lives or dies on its next trial results - nothing that happens with Covid or Camel pox or anything else will influence this. And serious value will not return until the final P3 is completed successfully. The company itself has said many times its focus is beyond Covid and the new trials will be to prepare the ground a single multiviral P3. Those patients will be available regardless of new variants.

I thought someone would pick the company up on the cheap when the pre-Sprinter price expired - based on the promise of the deep dive and Activ2. Clearly that hasn't happened and I don't know why the stats Td quoted weren’t enough to bring in a major partner or purchaser. Hopefully better for us that this didn't happen as the company now has a chance to slowly rebuild value but how were these stats ( Sprinter in particular) not sufficient

“ Sprinter showed you were 3-4 times more likely to be ventilated on placebo compared with drug sng00. Activ2 showed 7 patients hospitalised on placebo compared with drug. “ Tommyd.

Thanks Jint i wasn't saying they won't start together - but allowing for it as a possibility, as they haven't said categorically that they will.

Most of "winter" is after Christmas Doc so it's statistically likely that it will be January onwards - but I guess we just don't know how far advanced they are. The patients will start to be available as soon as the temperature falls and if they want to complete in a single season they should be open for business as soon as the first protocol is ready and sites are available.

My sweepstake bet is that they announce at least one trial is ready to start on Nov 7th and recruitment begins Nov 20th ( 13 days later as per SG016 )

Hopefully they don't wait till they're all ready before getting underway. We won't get any interim results from 30 patient trials - so topline results possible 2 months after LPD (again following SG016 timescale) But they will wait for all trials to complete before any announcements. Optimistic if all trials complete this winter - late spring. Pessimistic - late summer.

Morning Doc 83 "We know the P2 trails won’t start until Christmas or just after, so I wouldn’t hold your breath for good news before Xmas."

RM said winter so the trials could start in November. Now we don't know exactly how far along they are in design but they must be pretty close - the only questions to answer are exactly which patients get it. Sure the dosing and course of treatment will be the same as they haven't done any extra work to address this.

So the "winter" launch in my mind relates more to availability of patients in the winter season than planning or set-up. I'm expecting recruitment to start in Nov or early December.

The BMJ piece was interesting - as were several of Rick Bright's recent threads on Twitter. CDC preparing for 10% cuts ($1.5b) and Americans facing bills of $100+ for the new vaccine as the Federal support runs out and BP start fleecing the population despite the $Bs they received over the last 3 years. Question of how many without health insurance will spend the money for a booster ? Answer hardly any.

So much for all of us hopeful souls on here and in the medical community who pencilled in "pandemic preparedness" as a key feature of the post Covid world, and one that might see SNG promoted and supported. The truth is that the money men are back in charge. They think C-19 is over, and they're prepared to take exactly the same risks that put us in the mire in 2020.

No idea what Sakura's motives are - but calling him out by reposting his Nov 2021 warning that the P3 might not be a slam dunk - when the sp was 192.4 and we were just 3 months from calamity. I dunno - if he's here with an agenda - you've just given him a tremendous boost.

It's pretty clear that Ifns work but what is less clear is how well they work - and whether this particular formulation will ever find itself on the front line.

New thread to get rid of that deramp nonsense. My last point on this but opthers very welcome to add their thoughts.

Meanwhile we have a football match to win against Aussie ...

Fruits "my focus on the findings of the study, how that enhances the development path of SNG001 specifically. "

"specifically" is the point Fruits. There's no" development path" without something specific. And that specificity must relate to the role of Ifn across the different respiratory infections.

Dear oh dear Fruits.Please try to keep up. Nobody suggested they're using SNG and I certainly didn't suggest dilution.

What do you imagine UNIVERSAL is doing ? The clue is in the text " determine different factors which may affect how disease progresses "

You think they're doing that by taking their temperatures - or looking at their phlegm or asking them to stick their tongues out. ?

Not sure how you've missed the relevance of the UNIVERSAL trial Fruits - or why you think Synairgen is involved ? And why they've said it is so important to SNG's development. Your cut and paste job is not a counter argument to anything I posted. Clearly they are hoping for a confirmatory signal. We don't know exactly what they're doing with the swabs but they won't be using Synairgen's machinery just to confirm a respiratory infection.

I agree no need for cash raise for these. Nothing has changed since the AGM. Most of the sites will be those used in SG016 /18, they have the drug in large quantities & the numbers are tiny.

If UNIVERSAL produces a very strong and specific signal we might have seen a re-appraisal - maybe even a more ambitious program - but they've had quite a good look at a decent number of patients and haven't announced any changes.

UNIVERSAL readout will be interesting. In fact I'd go as far as to say crucial. We know SNG will now only be a niche drug - hopefully an important niche drug - and the hope is that UNIVERSAL and then the small P2s will provide very specific targeting that a single P3 will confirm. UNIVERSAL needs to point a smoking gun towards interferons. The study is using Synairgen's "viral testing equipment" and this can only be to quantify the importance of the interferon response across the range of respiratory viral infections.

If UNIVERSAL's signal is wishy washy or inconclusive - and they've been able to test sufficiently - there's no reason to suggest the small trials will produce the kind of % response needed to take the project forward.

Should have read this before posting :)

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/covid-omicron-variant-infection-deadlier-flu-studies-suggest

Not sure about Omicron being 3x worse than flu Alpha. I've had both once and flu was horrible. When I caught Omicron I barely knew I had it. Subjective of course and I do know people who were in their beds for 4 or 5 days with Omi - but far more who didn't feel ill at all. Most of us are never properly diagnosed with flu of course and we often think we've had it when we really haven't.

We're in a lucky place at the moment and can cautiously hope for a good winter .