Member Info for dippfs

I predict positive home trial results will be the catalyst to kick this on to £3 a share late March / Early April. With ACTIV 2 succesfully moving to P3 taking us to £5 a share by end of April. EUA and a 1B order from Joe Biden takes us to £25 a share by May. (just for fun!)

I thought the P3 trial was double blinded so they don’t see results until the trial is over ? If my understanding is correct they will have the home trial results now and this should be due for release imminently. And the warp speed is monitored by the FDA in real time, so there should be some data from this once released.

Hi All. Eve i agree that 500M to 1B valuation is probably fair with no revenue. The way i see things panning out, is if the home trial / warp speed results are good and we end up getting an EUA in the USA, then surely a big order from USA will swiftly follow. I suspect all these things will come together pretty quickly, one leads to the next. On this basis i cant really give a target for this share as it depends on the size of any order, but i suspect it will be WAY higher than 1B.

Org for sure I think your making a good point. But regardless of cases, SNG seems to be expecting to sell a lot of treatments based on government stockpiling. Nobody knows how much stock we have to sell but I recon whatever we have USA will buy the lot on any approval.

Think the is slightly wrong here. 100,000 treatments and £200M revenue is PER MONTH. P/E ratio is based on the annual figures ie 200M x 12 = 2.4B. But p/e is also based on the profits, not just the revenue. So maybe not quite 20 x the full 2.4B as we will have expenses. But whichever way you look at it the figures are huge.

If the end game is indeed that SNG is likely to end up being bought out. Doesn’t do us any harm when a big player like GSKs in house treatment has flopped.

£50 a share with 200M shares in circulation gives an MCAP of 10B. If we can sell 100k treatments a month at 2 grand a pop that’s 2.4B revenue a year. £50 a share looks very achievable to me.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/groundbreaking-covid-19-treatments-to-be-fast-tracked-through-clinical-trials

Looks like the announcement today will be more to do with govt backing for new phase 1 trials. The way I read this, is that it won’t affect us ?

Just pure speculation on my part. But perhaps the delay in confirming the warp speed across the pond could be linked to Joe Bidens funding package he is trying to get approved. I assume he cant confirm any deals until he has the funding. Perhaps he can only sign on the dotted line with SNG when he gets his covid relief bill through.

Tommy.... umm... well I hold shares in SNG so of course I am concerned with all things SNG related....

Doesn’t mean I don’t have questions. I don’t claim to understand every single thing.

Thanks for the responses guys. So just so I am clear in my understanding..... if one of the primary endpoints is successful. But the other primary endpoint is neutral result. Then overall this would be considered a success ? “2 shots at goal”, as it were ?

I know the results were really good, I’ve read the peer review and it confirms excellent results. But the primary endpoint of phase 3 is “time to hospital discharge” specifically. And specifically, phase 2 made no difference on this.

Hello everyone. I was just reading the peer review for my research. See the following which I have directly pasted from the report : By day 16, 33 (69%) of 48 patients in the placebo group and 35 (73%) of 48 patients in the SNG001 group had been discharged from hospital (appendix p 5). By day 28, 39 (81%) of 48 patients had been discharged in the SNG001 group compared with 36 (75%) of 48 in the placebo group. There was no significant difference between treatment groups in the odds of hospital discharge or time to hospital discharge (Figure 2, Figure 4; table 3).

Should I be concerned about the phase 3 trials when this exact thing is one of the primary end points ? The one thing that the trials didnt really make a difference in ?

I believe that any RTO deal would have to be voted on and approved by shareholders before it is completed ? Hopefully the next news will be a deal with good terms that will be positive for existing shareholders so we can vote to accept it.

Ive held this share since the "manic monday" and have been keeping a keen eye ever since, my first post here ! I still see this as fairly binary though, there are a lot of variables. EG if the vaccines are effective then covid could be pretty much done by summer. In which case i see the share price collapsing. For the record i think Boris and co are doing the right thing prioritising vaccines - prevention better than cure ! They really cant please everyone whatever they do ! Accept that there is the COPD as a back up, but i presume the recently raised 80M doesnt cover getting COPD approved and likely another placing at a cheap price. On the flip side of the risk vs reward - IF they can get this approved in a timely manner, there is really no limits to how far this could go. An update on manufacturing would be nice - its no good having a drug to sell if they dont even have any !

Share suspended for almost 2 months now. This seems like a long time for a share to be suspended !