Member Info for dippfs

We're probably on the second pathway already anyway. Analysis of trial data is complete and trial plans all in place. The only things left to finalise according to the full year report were trial locations and funding. If they dont get funding the board wont panic they will take their pay checks for another 2 years and chill their beans. Theres probably 10-15 people sat there in the office with nothing to do right now. Main pathway wont come into force until the funding comes.

Not entirely true Spac. Company gave 2 pathways, with a trial and without, without a trial they basically just wind the funds down to 2026. So going concern isn’t going to be an issue for pretty much 2 years one way or the other.

So if Sanoffi and AZ collab a lot where does Jannsen fit in ? I suppose the biggest question mark of all is, if these big pharmas are funding our next trial, what do they want in return !!!

As I mentioned last week TFG invest with a 20 year timeline in mind, and if that is how long it takes to develop whatever the investment is then so be it. And Reade Griffith also mentioned he is much more useful to companies in the first 5 years when things are developing, then once an investment matures the investment is more useful to him. I would expect him to be in the loop about what is going on and more than likely if there is anything he can do to help he probably will. You should listen to his podcast interview its very interesting.

The company said nothing at all about a small trial. They said they plan to do an “enhanced trial”. I would be astonished if they are planning an enhanced trial ( when they could probably afford a normal trial ) if the funding isn’t in the bag.

With circa 12M in the bank surely they could afford to a small trial with no funding. So the fact they are planning an enhanced trial would make no sense unless they knew they had something in place. I feel it must be close as well - if it was months away they couldn’t just abandon the AGM for a year surely.

Literally LOADS of potential non dilutive funding options. We passed ACTIV2 phase 2 with the NIH, they just stopped the whole trial which wasnt SNGs fault but they did say at the time "lead investigators from ACTIV-2 and Synairgen are in ongoing discussions to try to identify an appropriate clinical trial to continue the evaluation of SNG001." This was over 2 years ago but it shows there is governmental interest. The Porton Down test hints at UK governmental interest. TFG have invested circa £100M in shares I doubt they are going to allow this to go under for the sake of £5M funding. Plus there are of course collabs like UNIVERSAL which are funded by the big pharmas.

Another thought that crossed my mind was about the funding coming from an equity raise. If this were the case then surely the sooner they do it the better as every penny she share price drops probably adds tens of millions of shares in dilution. Again the fact they are delaying and don’t seem to care possibly points towards it not being an equity raise ? Surely the sooner the better would have been beneficial for this and it seems like the moment has already passed ?

TP I think the current discount to what we are trading at is huge. 8M mcap doesn’t even cover the 12M cash in the bank ! And the MCAP implies that SNG001 as a product is worthless. To say that when we had the P3 we were valued at 400M ish at the peak there is an awful lot of scope for increase here. My only concern has always been that the boards lack of effort to protect the share price will probably block deals getting done as no BP will pay billions for a firm valued at only 8M it makes no sense whatsoever.

TFG invest on a time horizon of 10-20 years, and they are fully prepared for ( and expect ! ) blips in the road for the start up companies they invest in. ( see read Griffiths multiple podcasts where he says as much ). They are very patient investors and are here for the long haul. Thats not to say they get 100% of investments correct or that they are happy with synairgens situation. But to write their investment off after 3 years is not going to happen.

The Company is currently finalising its assessment of the best combination of trial structure/locations and associated financing requirement and aim to communicate the outcome of this soon with a view to commencing the next Phase II trial this winter.

The above quote from 1/2 year results implies to me that whatever is planned is a done deal and they are just tying up the loose ends. If your finalising locations then I read this as a good sign that they expect this trial to happen. Hopefully we will have good news soon fingers crossed.

Gampy they drew up 2 budgeting plans one with trial and one without. First choice is to get finance and do trial this winter. Second choice only comes about if they can’t get finance for some reason and they will spend the remaining time trying to prove why they should get finance. Plan B would be a disaster really.

Not just UK government - should we have the US government on that list too ? I think we will find out fairly soon either way anyways, company did 2 different cashflow projections on its year end results - one with a trial and one without. Presumably if there is no funding / trial then plan B forecasting which is basically hibernation mode would have to be switched on pretty quickly.

Doc to suggest there is NO non dilatory way forward I feel isnt entirely correct. Of course there is - platform trials / grants / government funding, just to mention a couple. Could be anything. They may be unlikely, and possibly wishful thinking. But impossible ? No ! The Porton Down test still has no explanation. I hope we find out soon and I am quite sure that finalising the funding is probably the reason for the delayed AGM.

I doubt the board ( who are also shareholders ) would willingly wipe out shareholders by making a plan with dilutive funding, when a smaller trial would be possible with existing funds. And I also doubt TFG would entertain this. Perhaps they have an ace in the hole with some non dilutive funding on the table enabling an enhanced trial. Maybe it's wishful thinking but we can all dream right !

Under the operational review / our strategy and plans section of the recent year end accounts. It states the company is finalising..... a potential financing plan to enable it to pursue an enhanced trial structure. Im surprised nobody has mentioned this so far, but does anyone have any thoughts about what an enhanced trial structure could be ? Any why on earth would SNG plan an ENHANCED trial structure if it requires extra funding. Like could we do a normal trial structure without funding ?

The RNS I read said that the analysis of all data of SNG being trialled on nearly 1000 patients across all trials is complete and the mechanically ventilated patients trial is what they feel is the best route forward. I dont believe this is based on nothing - it's based on the learnings from the 1000 patients that have trialled SNG. As for the funding for this trial I wouldn't be surprised if we got some governmental funding and I also wouldnt be surprised if there is an equity raise which dilutes existing shareholders. It might even be a bit of both who knows. The funding is the biggest question mark.

The full year results answered 10 questions but raised 10 others ! Why could we afford 2 trials last year but we cant afford 1 now ? How much will this new trial cost and how much is our shortfall. My first instinct was that there is going to be a raise and shareholder dilution. Funding from USA wouldnt surprise me though, we got funding for ACTIV 2 which warranted further investigation, so why not ! Are we planning a bigger trial now but paid for elsewhere ? Guess we will have to wait and see, so much is up in the air currently.

I agree we are living our lives as normal but despite that still 2.5M hospitalisations per year in the USA alone according to latest RNS which is a reasonable market to go after.

If they had any intention of doing a July AGM they would have done it by now. My prediction ( which is based on the zero information provided ) is that there will be no AGM until the trial and accompanying finance details are announced.