Member Info for dippfs

Ghia the thought about the Jansen study results being required had crossed my mind as well. They even said they were using the data to plan future trials. So it does make some sense. But from a timescales point of view it would be a disaster, this trial was a year long so it wouldn't even be expected to finish until H2 this year. H2 this year is when SNG are likely to start running out of cash, surely they wouldn't leave it down to the wire like that....

So much for Sir Steven Holgates comment that we are "first in line" for any platform trials. We are second in line at best ! More gaffes than Prince Phillip from the old chap.

Its nearly 12 months since the sprinter topline results, plenty of time to dissect the results and plan a new trial. If we assume the trial is planned and agreed by now, then the only missing piece of the jigsaw is funding. We only have 9 months of cash left more than likely. Declining share price. Tiny MCAP. World class product but not enough cash and nobody wants to stump up the money. I used to hold Sirius Minerals and im feeling de ja vu here. I hope im wrong but its not looking good and the clock is ticking. No incentive for a big Pharma to rush into a deal when they can just wait and watch the share price slowly decline along with the bank balance.

BeforeGolf wasn't suggesting we were presenting at this conference. He said that this is the type of conference where deals get announced ( JV / takeover etc ). We dont need to be presenting there in order to announce a deal.

A JV is also going to have some dilution. Your talking about giving away 50-70% of future revenues to the partner. It depends on the terms of the deal. Our tiny ( and falling ) MCAP means we are negotiating from a terrible position. Maybe a raise wouldn’t be such a disaster after all once the dust settles. I just don’t see how a big pharma is going to pay a billion for a company valued at 40m. Makes no sense.

Thanks for the post but I’m wondering what makes you believe that we won’t see £1 plus until commercialisation ?

Surely as soon as the P3 trial is initiated then we will see a re-rate ? If it’s a JV if we are giving away 50%+ of future revenues then we aren’t going to give it away for nothing ? It’s worth more than a 40M P3 trial no ? If we get a platform trial then no dilution and no future revenue given away even better ?

Elsol I am interested to hear where you got the 150m plus double digit royalty from ? Do you think there would be any chance of a 50/50 deal similar to Pfeizer / BiONTech with the vaccine ?

HSD I’m not entirely sure I’d agree with that. A hedge fund invest money to make a return. I’ve never heard of a hedge fund running a clinical trial. They are investors not scientists.

No chance of that price until a new trial is confirmed and details of how it will be paid for.

I dont see myself as a troll Tommy, Im just calling it as I see it and based on this I can evaluate my next move with this investment. Why would the company be exploring other options if a platform trial was sewn up ? Following on from Ghia comment - perhaps this is where the UNIVERSAL trial with Jansen comes into play ? Perhaps Jansen is the best offer on the table but they want to see the results of the UNIVERSAL before they will sign on the dotted line ? Which probably means a trial next year. I honestly dont know im just thinking out loud ?!?

Based on the tone of yesterdays RNS and subsequent video, the company made it quite clear platform trials are winding down as the pandemic subsides and the they are looking at alternative options. Seems pretty logical to conclude from this that Strive isn’t happening.

The tone of todays RNS and subsequent recorded interview is that platform trials are winding down and the company is investigating other options. So I would suggest my post is extremely relevent, because these would appear to be the likely outcomes currently.

So it would appear we have gone from being "at the front of the queue" on a platform trial, to a platform trial being not likely at all as they are all closing down as the pandemic subsides. So to go it alone for a new trial, maybe a £40M raise which is dilution of maybe 200M shares which doubles the shares in issue ? This is a raise at a generous 20p. Otherwise we are looking at a collaboration with a large Pharma where they pay for the trial but maybe take half the income from future sales. Just interested to see what other investors would think is a preferable outcome ?

Ghias theory on this is interesting. But this would imply to me 2 things... 1) If Synairgen plan to run a new trial based on the results of this observation trial, then 1 year to recruit and 6 months for results of the observation, then the same again for the actual trial with SNG001. All of a sudden SNG looks like a 3 year project ( minimum ). Lets hope not for all our sakes ! 2) Where does a platform trial fit into this ? If we have got on a platform trial which would start before winter, then why the need to design a future trial ? By the time the observation trial results come in the platform trial would be finished ?

This trial is going to do zero towards the commercialisation of SNG001 - they aren’t even trialling it ! It’s not the trial we needed, let’s hope this isn’t the only one !

If it’s any consolation I named my dog Sadio and now my boy Mane has moved to Bayern Munich !

Based on Tommys comment at 18:34. We can’t design a future trial until we have the A2 data. So that would mean they haven’t even started on future trials yet because they don’t have this data yet. Implying a new trial is quite a way off.

Cash balance was 25M as of 21st Feb. Tomorrows update is FY results to 31 Dec. Maybe we won’t even get an up to date cash balance, it’s not part of the FY results so it may not be deemed necessary ? I don’t actually know what they are obligated to disclose ?

If SNG failed on one trial it will most likely fail on another. I suspect they can’t plot a way forward for covid or copd or anything else until they understand the results of the covid trial.

The only reason I asked this question was because this was exactly what SNG did when the home trial flopped. They combined the results with the hospital trial, and from the 2 together was where they got the breathless criteria. So it makes sense to me that they would be looking at all the angles from all the trials combined to see what they can learn.