RE: "death spiral" finance31 May 2022 14:52
The best scenario for DVRG shareholders is that the company makes the repayments when due. If they don't, or willingly allow the lender to convert, then shareholders will be diluted.
The current conversion is 20p, but don't forget, the SP was over 30p last summer. A conversion of 40p would be a true sign of where we are going. The current SP is so low due to macro economics and the war in Ukraine.
Hopefully the 20p conversion rate will feel "low" in the not to distant future.
The danger with many death spiral finance agreements is that the conversion price is, say, 90% of the 30 day average SP. A lender wouldn't want shares to be converted at £1 if the SP was only 90p as they would lose money upon dumping them, and thus usually a lender will push for a discount.
Arguably a lender could hold onto the shares, but usually they don't care to as they want their money back. So dumping into the open market is the usual outcome, and the effect of this dumping is that the SP falls
I feel confident we wont see such shenanigans at DVRG. We have only borrowed £4m so far (not the entire £25m). At 12% we are looking at interest of £480k per annum, or roughly 5% of annual turnover to December 2021.
We should be generating sufficient cash from operations to meet these repayments. The capital will no doubt loom over us, but we can probably replace it with better finance in the future as the company grows