Member Info for Dingodog1

The second rumour floating around yesterday was to use the placing to clean up the balance sheet ahead of an MBO.

Just a rumour, of course, but so too was the placing. That rumour came true.

GB/DVRG have done nothing to rest shareholders. I have never seen GB so silent

My prediction is GB stepping away from his role as CEO, going off grid for a year or so, and then coming back to take the company private. The MBO rumour has legs imo, and the company have not moved to silence those fears.

Thankfully this is a relatively small % of my portfolio, however, it hurts all the same

FFS. So, an equity raise, to clear the debt. Rumour one confirmed.

Rumour two, a management buyout, with the sticking point being the debt. Not after the proposed equity raise... there will be a clean balance sheet and a languishing SP.

I am struggling to see how any of this ends well for LTH. I am really disappointed at the moment

GB in the March RNS:

"This £25 million mezzanine loan ensures availability of funds for growth, avoids stock market fluctuations, eliminates the need for a discounted equity dilution of shareholders and the Glanaco acquisition underwrites our ability to take control of our supply chains and manage scale to meet the growing global demand being experienced by the company."

The SP was about 9p two weeks ago. They have a £24m facility, of which only £4m drawn.

Why would the company be looking to raise funds by going to the market when they have the mezanine funding? And why the heck would the price be 3p a share? Even at today's 6p, 3p would be a 50% discount.

He is likely scare mongering. If this comes true GB has screwed LTHs

Other shares i own have dropped today, but 20% is crazy. I am starting to suspect that the earlier prediction, that DVRG are converting the loan with the shares then being dumped into the market, is the case. No RNS yet, but i expect us to see it shortly. I can see no other reason for such a drop with no obvious reason.

The time for GB to reassure us all is now. The longer he stays silent the more this will fall

A very unhappy LTH here. I believe in the company but not in the SP

GB cant do anything about the SP day to day. Hopefully, in time, the good news and growth in the financials will shine through, but right now there is nothing he can say or do to change the SP direction whilst someone is dumping large quantities.

I am invested in ORPH, which has seen its fair share of ramping from a member of the BOD, with crazy SP and MCAP targets. It hasn't done them any good, although it did for a short while.

If GB comes out and starts saying that DVRG is going to the moon, £1bn mcap next year etc, he will get an SP reaction, but it will be short lived.

Under promise, over deliver needs to be the name of the game. The business is growing, but the SP just isn't reflecting that. Expected turnover of at least £18m. MCAP touched £15m earlier. A clear disconnet imo, although i want to see the loan repaid, not converted (at this SP!)

The SP decline is indeed painful Stoater, and this pain will be felt by all shareholders, including the BOD.

Hopefully we get some solid contract RNS over the next three months to stem the leak. The big RNS i am anticipating the most is the Jan non-audited turnover confirmation.

"The Board conservatively expects revenue to be in excess of £18m for the full year to 31 December 2022". Conservative means nailed on in my book. If they can delivery £18m revenue at the very least, perhaps even £20m+, then the market should take notice. MCAP is presently beneath anticipated annual turnover. I cant imagine many companies are in that position. I know of many with MCAP well in excess of turnover, that is for sure!

The macro economics are playing a massive role. The naysayers like sticking the knife in. It's over to GB to confirm to us that all is well on the good ship DVRG.

I cant imagine many LTH in any share are having much success these days. We just need to wait it out (if you can) until this maelstrom of a bear market is beyond us. Remember, the NASDAQ is down 25% (so i read), so it isnt just AIM, and certainly isnt just DVRG

Per the RNS in August 2021:

"Consideration of £45.2 million to be fully satisfied by way of the issue of an expected maximum of 9,578,937,499 new ordinary shares in the Company ("Consideration Shares") at an expected minimum of 0.472 pence per ordinary share ("Issue Price")"

$222m sounds good, but let's be honest, RBD won't take the well to development. Isn't there a risk that they would sell sooner rather than later for like £30m?

We know with Victory that undeveloped fields go for a fraction of the NBV

I am just a little disappointed with the Victory outcome and when i see $222m NPV to RBD and sigh a little as i cannot realistically see us getting anywhere near that much for it

*over a 10 bag to broker target

Good point, although the SP was around 26p when those options were granted.

If they granted options today, at 30p, that would be a great sign of where they see the SP going.

Still, there is a motivation to get the SP, at least, back to 30p, which is very doable. And the TP target of 90p (where it has stood for a couple of years) is a further sign of where some see this going (eventually).

Close to a 4 bag for the options to kick in, ovet a 10 bar to broker target. No bad reading.

Of course, a comment from GB that the loan will be repaid (and not via conversion) wouldn't go amiss right now, and may settle a few restless souls... (can't imagine that is market sensitive information?)

The last placing of note was in June 2021. As far as i am aware (bar the odd option?) the shares in issue now mirror those in issue back then.

In July 2021 the SP was in the 30's. Today it is 8.6p. The decline in SP isnt due to dilution, which is a usual reason on AIM for SP decline.

So, despite the progression of the business over the past 14 months the value of DVRG has fallen by approx 75%. From what i can see there is no business related reason why the SP has fallen. The fundamentals remain strong and triple digit growth is expected for another year.

So, you have to ask the question, why has the SP/mcap fallen so much? For me, it is down to the following:

- macro political events (Ukraine)
- imminent recession (shrinking of the UK economy)
- background seller of shares (Hellium?)

To me, the above three points are temporary. MW is the gold standard of water monitoring and STC may be an absolute juggernaut that is starting to take off, amonst other strings to the company's bow (labskin, BT etc). How all of this can be worth less than £20m is astounding, especially with turnover of £18m nigh on nailed on imo (conservative forecast). And therefore, if feel the DVRG SP represents brilliant value at present

Doubters will point to cashflow and the impending loan repayments, but as has been mentioned, receivables are strong (albeit a factor in poor cashflow) and the H2 turnover is expected to be at least double that of H1. All of this should indicate a sizeable boost in cash in the months since the interims, and the months ahead to YE.

The £25m mezanine loan means DVRG has the cash to sustain the growth for another couple of years, whilst the business continues to grow and starts generating serious cashflow of its own. Growth needs cash, and DVRG has access to it, albeit with unfavourable interest rates. Hopefully DVRG will make every effort to meet the repayments and refrain from converting into shares, especially with the current SP.

The biggest concern to me is any dilution, but given the sizeable holdings of GB i would like to think that this would be a last resort. The fundamentals of the business are great imo and i am happy to hold and add at these levels. The business hasn't lost 75% of its value due to the fundamentals and potential, that is for sure.

On 4th July there was an RNS confirming STC revenues of over £1m. Most, if not all, of that revenue will be in H1 2022. It is also gathering pace with recent confirmations of demand out striping supply.

Potentially STC could contribute a further £1.5-2m of revenue in the next 6 months (in the run up to Christmas), which when combined with the H1 revenue of £6.4m and order book of £8.87m should see us comfortably hit the £18m FY2022 target - with over 3 months to go!

Of course, this is dependent on the order book being recognised in H2 2022, and not slipping into H1 2023

The forecast of £18m was "conservative". I read this as a worst case scenario/easily achieveable target. An optimistic/hopeful forecast (risky to issue via an RNS) could have been in excess of £20m.

Under promise, over delivery comes to mind. All imo

I believe T.Rat is refering to receipt of funds, as opposed to inclusion in order book. It will definitely be in the order book, which at £8.87m, is looking good. If all recognised aa revenue in 2022 then we are already looking at annual revenue of around £15m, with just under three and a half months to go

Really is amazing considering what we have here.

If the business was carved up and sold individually (STC, MW etc), it would be worth way in excess of £20m imo.

The turnover may still exceed £20m this year!

I've noticed that since CF has taken a step back the SP has been in the doldrums, despite the underlying business growing.

Many a LTH was anti-CF's exuberance (in retorspect) and has classed him as a second hand car dealer type, but it was actually the one thing that pushed the SP into the 40's.

Now CF has taken a back seat, the SP is close to as bad as its been for two years. And LTH are unhappy.

There is certainly an arguement that CF was "telling porkies", certainly with regards to timelines, but who would go back to the days of a CF interview every month or two, with SP boosting results?

I am long with ORPH, as i have been since summer 2020. But it is a little frustrating that, despite business growth, the SP is performing so poorly.

Hopefully some solid results will start to turn sentiment here. The fundamentals are barnstorming in my opinion. The biggest being the fact that the business doesnt need to raise funds via the market and thus no dilution (it washes it's face).

I appreciate macro economics are a factor here too, but a reversal in the SP decline would be welcome. Perhaps a CF interview on the progress of the spin outs, NASDAQ, china, DIM would give it a kick in the right direction

FCA approval of 10 additional tokens. That is brilliant news. Probably Etherium first, later in the year. Hopefully this leads to an increase in SP before the next conversion...

That tweet was from November 2019...

https://mobile.twitter.com/brokermandaniel/status/1191703604513693696

I agrees trillsg. If a small time company invents the cure to a major disease, said cure is worth billions irrespectable of the fact that said company is small fry. Just apply that to non-public companies that are sold for millions, even billions. The value isn't set. Being listed doesn't result in transparent fair value at any one moment in time. Those that believe put far too much faith in "a share is worth what someone is willing to pay" (as far as AIM is concerned).

The fact DVRG is worth £25/30m based on an open market, in which the commodity traded is a DVRG share, doesnt mean that the IP within DVRG isn't worth more to a wider audience/market.

It is too simple to say "DVRG is only worth £25/30m MCAP based on today's share price x shares in issue, therefore every IP it has combined and more is worth £25/30m"

Just isn't true. The majority of those who have such say at present are small time investors and traders, some of whom would sell out for 10%!

I won't hasten to put a value on what DVRG has, but i am adamant it is worth more than current MCAP, and thus why i continue to hold.

The markets, in particular AIM, are influenced by macro economics, incl ukraine/cost of living/impending recession.

Does that mean that the small time investors who hold DVRG shares are the oracle on the value of what DVRG has?? Of course not. In the right hands and to the right people what DVRG has is worth ££££. The price on the AIM market does not determine that

If you disagree with this sentiment then sell and make it easier for the rest of us to buy more.