Member Info for Dingodog1

The 3 years annualised return of 56.97 vs benchmark of 7.16? Impressive sign of the investor return within DVRG vs the market as a whole

You might need to help me out Chesh... :-)

I completely agree Glebe. We gained a lot of new investors in Sept 2020 when the BT was announced at the general meeting, at a time when covid stocks were "going to the moon". The SP rose to about 70p at that time, before crashing back down to earth. It didnt get to 70p on the back of sentiment alone, it rose due to the deluge of investors piling in. Some of those paid 50/60/70p a share. Those investors will be very unhappy at the moment, if they still hold. I believe the term is "being spiked". It comes with experiece not to pile into a share that has risen sharply. Wealth is built over time, not over night

I expect us to return to the 50/60/70 price range this year with the amount of news in the pipeline at present. I think the confirmation of 2021 revenue and the forecast for 2022 will kick start the rise. On 11th Jan 2021 DVRG confirmed a revenue expectation of £10m. The SP was 36p (a non-spiked high).

If DVRG confirm £9-£11m unaudited turnover for 2021 (nailed on as no RNS to the contrary) and then forecast £24m (per TP research note) then i cant see 23p and £50m mcap. Then we have the CR conclusion, STC medical, STC plus, PD mobile van service, BT news and more.

Now is the time to be buying imo

Especially when £9-£11m came from non-PD income.

If DVRG guide the market £24m then the £13-£15m uplift should be very manageable from STC and PD sales.

If STC captures the imagination of the UK, US and China (eventually) the sales could be huge. They will also be difficult to predict. 60,000 x 12 x £97* = £69.84m (if people fancy dreaming)

*assumes £97 provides one test/skin swab. I can't recall whether £97 is two or more tests. If it is, then the revenue potential falls accordingly

... and then there is STC medical. All we know at the moment is that "it's big"

Shorteverything, where has the suggestion of £21m come from? Do you mean 2022 turnover? Per the TP research note it's £24m, but DVRG haven't released an RNS yet

JR owns a substantial chunk of this company so the slump in the SP hurts him too. Whether it is a material portion of his own personal wealth or not, it is still hurting him. That is a saving grace vs most crashing stocks where the BOD don't have any skin in the game and keep raising at an ever reducing SP.

Prior to "that" RNS back in Nov the SP was in the mid 30's/low 40's. The crash over the past month is due to poor sentiment arising from the merchant fiasco. And rightly so. However, bad sentiment doesnt equate to fair value. It is up to the BOD to pull something out of the bag and prove that the MCAP of £20m is beyond a joke. JR said, at £50/60m mcap, that MODE was heavily undervalued vs it's US peers, whether you consider the US big boys peers or not is another matter...

My take on this is the PD is specifically a waste water surveillance device. For the reasons GB has mentioned the PD cannot be used at the olympics.

His tweet relating to how DVRG are helping detect covid at the olympics leads me to believe that DVRG are able to detect covid in drinking water, but dont specifically need the PD to detect it (ie, the affirmers/optimers chip can be installed in other microtox devices).

I am not aware that fresh water becoming contaminated with covid is necessarily an issue, but if its there, microtox will detect it (just not through the use of the PD on this occasion).

So, i guess DVRG have been given clearance to detect if covid is in the water athletes drink (as well as other contaminants), but not if its in the waste they excrete.

All imo based on the info available, perhaps GB could clarify

Growth can take two forms, organic (self generated) or external (acquisition). The former is slower, the latter quicker but at a cost.

DVRG/SKIN revenue has grown from £278k to £10m (est) through a combination of the two.

The MWG turnover boost has been acquired via external growth, the remainder through organic growth.

Discrediting the rise in turnover due to a portion of it coming from external growth is misguided. DVRG wont forever discount any benefit from MWG purely because they purchased it as opposed to reinventing it from scratch. In the year following acquisition it is natural for critics to say "you haven't really achieved the MWG revenue because it was there already". It was there already, but was contributory to another business. Going forward it is DVRG revenue. No two ways about it. As far as arguing about growth statistics, the proof and benefits will be in the future growth, at least as far as i am concerned.

The revenue splits pre and post acquisition in 2020 could be argued until the cows come home. But 2021 revenue and beyond will contain full contribution from all DVRG divisions, including modern water.

If the 2022 revenue expectation is in the region of £24m will the critics say that the forecast isnt accurate as some of it comes from modern water?

I believe Modern Water have been used in numerous olympics in the past. I don't think the winter olympics being in China has necesarily changed anything in that respect. Obviously great news, although no mention of value (imaterial? Or sensitive to competitors?)

It would have been great if the PD was being used there too, but perhaps they can't be manufactured on the scale required at this moment in time

Hi volmer, this tweet was posted by GB earlier on today:

https://mobile.twitter.com/gjbrandon/status/1478713688781737992

No RNS yet, so nothing is known about what STC medical is, but it per an earlier GB tweet "it's big"

GB's tweet on STC looks promising. STC medical seems to be a response to the 58% of more serious skin conditions identified in the STC swabs processed to date. Presumably DVRG is looking to launch a dermatology/advisory arm that can diagnose eczema, acne, rosea and worse. If we can identify it then it makes sense to add that string to our bow imo, and more importantly monetise that capability.

DVRG will no doubt give us the low down soon via the appropriate RNS channels, but it looks like 2022 will be an exciting year for both existing and new revenue streams.

The most important thing at this stage is growing the brand awareness. 30k people know of STC across at least two continents. I am not sure why you would subscribe to STC if you weren't taking a test, whether for free or paid for.

Either way, a test gives DVRG data which is valuable. It may well be connected to the STC medical tweet that GB sent out the other day. STC medical may be how DVRG will monetise that data. In which case, even the free tests will generate revenue from the data that is then sold on. For anyone who pays for a test, it's money in, money out for DVRG.

We still haven't seen much from media monks, at least i haven't yet. Hopefully this will ramp up in the coming weeks.

All imo of course, but enough for me to top up this morning at 23.44 (bargain), especially with news from the various modern water avenues, 2021 results and 2022 expectations imminent :-)

At one time, yes. But per the google charts MODE is down 53% from a year ago and HE1 down 13%.

I invest for the long term, so i would be disappointed with such positions after a year.

HE1 is a helium resource stock. The spike came during the drilling, which returned less than expected results. It then crashed akin to POLX when the FDA rejected its device. Both stocks being examples of binary outcomes. It happens or it doesnt. If it does then great, if it doesnt then catastrophic collapses. The same with oilers and miners.

MODE spiked on the early 2021 bitcoin boom, with PI's cashing ARB profits and jumping to the new BTC linked stock. After that early buz cleared MODE shot themselves in the foot by announcing a retail contract with boots, ocado and homebase. The same day the three retailers denied the agreement and the SP collapsed.

DVRG, however, is rapidly building revenues and isnt reliant on one single event coming in. Some could argue that the CR contract not being signed would be catastrophic, but imo the CR contract isnt priced in and our present SP is supported by all the good things that are confirmed. All imo, of course. Plus, GB has already confirmed in one of the recent interviews that CR hasn't been signed as there are final negotiations that need to be done in person. The pandemic has halted transport in/out of China and so this is likely the cause of the delay.

It's reassuring that DVRG is so high on the list. Clearly there is a lot of potential here and 2022 is going to be a big year.

However, i would take his SP predictions with a pinch of salt. He pretty much predicts a bag for all shares in his top 20.

No.1 (HE1) and No.2 (MODE) on his 2021 list have had bad years SP wise, after early year spikes. No mention of them this year....

I think we were 11th last year, and i recall that we were regarded as "the next open orphan"

We may well get more interest following our high ranking on the list, but he doesn't go into much detail relating to what we offer, just that we are probably worth less than the sum of the parts and that a US listing would probably value the company about 10 times higher

Happy new year Paulcon.

Hopefully 2022 is the transformative year that the DVRG potential promises

On 11 January 2021 DVRG confirmed its revenue guidance of £10m for YE 2021.

Just before Christmas GB confirmed on this board that the TP research note that predicted 2022 turnover of £24m was based on discussions with the company and that such an estimate couldnt be made without company approval (or words to that effect).

So, within the next week or so we could well receive 2022 revenue guidance in the region of £24m, up from 2021's £10m.

At some point soon we should also receive unaudited results for 2021, which will confirm £10m revenue (+/- 10% as no RNS to the contrary).

This would be great news and would really set up expectations for the year ahead.

What effect do we think the above news would have on the SP? £10m revenue = £50m mcap and 24p or so. Could we expect £24m revenue to equal £125m mcap and an sp of 60p? I know its not that simple, but the present SP seems very cheap when considering what is going on within DVRG.

We all know that the SP spent a lot of 2021 in the 30p range, this with expectation of £10m revenue. It would be nice to see a rerate in the SP. I think 2022 will bring said rerating and more :-)

For turnover of £1.6m across 15 months and losses of £2.9m.

By comparison ORPH has nigh on nailed on turnover of £50m and is profitable. This supposedly only provides a further £70m in mcap... hmmm

Different company and different market (detection). However, it looks like they are either heavily over valued or we are heavily under valued, imo

Each contract runs for like 6-8 months and the contracts dont always start right away. Revenue recognition in 2022 is based on when the work is delivered. Realistically, once we get to May/June time ORPH will be signing contracts for 2023.

Still, 95% of 2022 revenue prior to 2022 starting is great. We've probably got another 4 or 5 months to add to that imo. Expectations should be exceeded :-)

Good point glebe.

The 2021 revenue projections were largely based on continuing operations. Existing labskin and modern water revenue, just ramped up based on q4 2020.

As we head into 2022 we have the aforementioned revenue sources plus:

- Skin trust club on two continents with a third on the way (incl potential mass order from retailer)
- microtox PD orders
- microtox BT orders (potentially)
- MWMS vans out and about (potentially)
- sale of skin trust data out the other end (potentially)

I dont expect the 2022 revenue guidance to be based on Q4 2021 multiplied by 4. Once the above mentioned revenue streams come on tap there will be a material uplift from the current existing operations.

We also know that 2021 revenues will be between £9m and £11m (10% either side of forecast) as any variance of 10% needs to be RNS'd to the market

Of course, there is still time for a revenue projections update (either way) but with only 7.5 trading days until Christmas i would be amazed if much more happened before the year is closed.

The stocktwits board has come alive with reference to the free bitcoin. Perhaps this news, allied with the continuing pomp association is starting to spark interest in some early birds that have done their research.

At the time of writting a chance to win $47k just for downloading an app and setting up an account. That's quite appealing given it takes, what, less than 5 minutes to do?

Its all publicity and this may be what the modgf surge is in relation to. Time will tell if we see a jump tomorrow